Bitcoin's view 365 days after the third halving
The cryptocurrency market has gain a tremendous popularity within the past 4 years. Unarguably during the 2017, bitcoin was on all the report news highlights with a solid return of 1318%. Besides, this wouldn't prevent it to have an 84% drawdown that would last more than a year. Just as a simple understanding and in a fundamental view, Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21,000,000 coins with a decreasing rate of mining halved every 4 years. Here are some interesting remarks:
- Since the inception in 2009, it takes between 365 and 560 days after every halving for a bear market to begin with a drawdown greater than 50%.
- The best moments to buy Bitcoin are within one year before the halving date, which would represent the low of the next era.
- After reaching the high of the current halving era, the level will only be broken upside during the next era (in 3years or more), trapping late buyers.
- Each era lasts 4 years, which is the timeframe between two halving dates.
In a technical analysis view, the RSI indicator and the weekly chart are perfect tools to confirm the remark statement. The RSI has been overbought for quite a long time, has a declining trend and is approaching the 50 level.
This week marks the first anniversary since the third halving therefor we might have reached the high of the era at 65,000 USD per coin. In case the market resumes the bull trend, this would be considered as a late entry as there is not enough room left and by the end of this year 2021, we might experience the upcoming bear market.
How to buy at discount prices :
The end of the bear trend can be spot when we trade around the oversold areas of the RSI or as stated previously, 365 days or less before the next halving. Another way to trade Bitcoin efficiently is averaging down with equal contributions and equal intervals, preferably weekly: By the time we reach back another top, all the unrealized losses would be filled by the gains.
Thank you for reading me and don't forget to share your thoughts on the comment section :).
- Since the inception in 2009, it takes between 365 and 560 days after every halving for a bear market to begin with a drawdown greater than 50%.
- The best moments to buy Bitcoin are within one year before the halving date, which would represent the low of the next era.
- After reaching the high of the current halving era, the level will only be broken upside during the next era (in 3years or more), trapping late buyers.
- Each era lasts 4 years, which is the timeframe between two halving dates.
In a technical analysis view, the RSI indicator and the weekly chart are perfect tools to confirm the remark statement. The RSI has been overbought for quite a long time, has a declining trend and is approaching the 50 level.
This week marks the first anniversary since the third halving therefor we might have reached the high of the era at 65,000 USD per coin. In case the market resumes the bull trend, this would be considered as a late entry as there is not enough room left and by the end of this year 2021, we might experience the upcoming bear market.
How to buy at discount prices :
The end of the bear trend can be spot when we trade around the oversold areas of the RSI or as stated previously, 365 days or less before the next halving. Another way to trade Bitcoin efficiently is averaging down with equal contributions and equal intervals, preferably weekly: By the time we reach back another top, all the unrealized losses would be filled by the gains.
Thank you for reading me and don't forget to share your thoughts on the comment section :).
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