Bear scenario in Bitcoin
Updated
This is a pretty compelling bear case for Bitcoin right now. Macro head and shoulders on weekly chart. Price could retrace to bottom of the ascending channel. That will be a huge price test. If it fails, we could see a retracement back to the 200 VWAP which happens to coincide with/around the last cycle's prior high. That would be a great are to accumulate more as the price of Bitcoin has historically rallied back quickly to the 200 VWAP. It would also make the chart look a bit more like previous cycles as well.
More importantly though is comparing it to the
DXY chart. This is super interesting as it coincides very well with the current DXY value within its local symmetrical wedge. If the DXY breaks out of that wedge, it will likely make a strong run to ~$108.
Not 100% convicted in this but it's curious and is worth keeping an eye on over the next few weeks/months.
More importantly though is comparing it to the
DXY chart. This is super interesting as it coincides very well with the current DXY value within its local symmetrical wedge. If the DXY breaks out of that wedge, it will likely make a strong run to ~$108.Not 100% convicted in this but it's curious and is worth keeping an eye on over the next few weeks/months.
Note
No major updates here. 
BTCUSD is still hanging on by a thread as the DXY continues to climb. Worth noting is that on-chain analytics is showing that whale HODL'rs (wallets with >1k BTC) have started buying again which is likely creating some support here. To be clear, this support looks and feels very thin right now. Weekly volume continues to be just at or slightly below the volume 20 MA. Just watching and waiting at this point for more conviction and data points to make a decision.
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