Long

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) wave count for bull market toward 2024 Halving

Updated

==BTCUSD wave count for bull market toward 2024 Halving==

Bitcoin's first Cycle Wave I completed with a peak in December 2017, followed by a bear market ending in Wave II in December 2018. Since that low the market has traded in Primary Wave (circle) 1 to peak in November 2021 with a new ATH at c. $69,000.

From November 2021 to November 2022 Bitcoin saw a substantial decline to 15,479, amounting to a 78% retracement from the ATH. Analysis of various long term indicators confirms this as the most likely bottom of the bear market of 2022.

It is also the beginning of a new bull market for the next year or two that will take Bitcoin to a new ATH at least by the time of the next Halving cycle, which occurs foreseeably in Spring of 2024.

Of this run, Minor degree waves 1 and 2 have been completed, with Wave 1 peaking at c. $31,000 in April 2023, and Wave 2 bottoming at $24,756 in June 2023. Minor Wave 3 is in progress and has eclipsed the previous 2023 high today.

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I believe this is the most likely market interpretation based on many long-term indicators and shorter-term market structure. Bear market scenarios that are currently being pushed are increasingly unrealistic, and loud announcements of a coming crash are just calls for attention. The contrarian knows that this indicates that the bear market is over.

An important consideration for those who follow stock-to-flow (S2F) arguments is that at the time of the halving (Spring 2024) the spot price should be close to or above the S2F value, as has Bitcoin history shown so far. This should produce a new ATH by next Spring or sooner.

It should be mentioned that the current impulse wave from the bear market low (Primary wave circle 2) is marked in the chart in Minor Degree (simple Roman numerals) along the bold black wave line. This means that this is happening in Intermediate Degree (1), which is not yet marked in the chart. We don't exactly know the highest wave degree of the current impulse, and it is possible that the Minor progression may need to be remarked in the future.

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Erratum: The bear market bottom level should have been labeled as Primary Degree 2, NOT Cycle Degree 2.

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2023-06-25 0-:27
After posting a new 2023 high of 31458 in the Bitstamp market used here, we see a small falling triangle A/B/C/D/E wave four correction of short duration. The market is already continuing upward.
Note that this initial leg took BTC from the bottom of the trading channel to its center line, which presented some resistance and an opportunity to retrace in what appears two consecutive 3-4 wave pairs. We expect a fifth wave here. I think we can expect the market topping at about 38k shortly which is the top of the trading channel, considering a few day's advance, as seen on this posts initial chart.

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2023-06-26 11:00
The impulse wave that brought this year's high at about 31460 appears to have been wave 1 in Minute Degree. It was followed by the mostly sideways trading in a flat ABC-correction which brought the market to the bottom trend line of the current short-term channel to what appears as completion of wave 2.(circled lower case Roman two). In all this the center line of the larger degree trading channel still forms some resistance, but should be broken soon, if the wave assignment is correct, for a continuation of the uptrend in wave 3.

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This short term trading channel intersects with the top trend line of the larger degree trading channel (green band in original chart) in the area of 38k, so this is still a foreseeable target for the near future, once the market gains some new momentum and decides to stop creeping along the low trend line, which it has touched twice more since starting wave (circle) III.

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A few hours later, bulls are defending the 30,000 line and so far successfully. But sellers did manage to take out the proposed end of wave circle ii, and dip the price a hundred points below 30000 briefly, outside of the channel shown in last chart. It is no real breakdown of the trend, as this point determines the exact position regardless. My previous trend line was drawn according to the slope of the regression channel. We may see another low at this point to finish a five-wave completion (wave c) of wave two, but it could already be finished just as well.

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2023-06-26 23:14
So the market has reached the point of confirmation of this assignment, and the decision to break free of the bears or submit a little longer.
We see that the prices has reached the top of correction wedge WXYXZ after completion of wave two. I marked Micro 1 and 2 waves, and the third wave has found resistance at the trend line at which point it also encountered the 1.0 multiplier of the size of wave 1, definitely a point of resistance. Breaking past this barrier should free the market perhaps the 1.618 level overnight.

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Bitcoin continued climbing its channel trend line overnight, broke the resistance lines and touched 31035 once again. The assumed 1-2 wave count in this ascend was invalided with too much overlap from the presumed fourth wave, but that is not material at this time. Eventually the market will tell us the correct count.

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The action since has not been bullish yet. The correction from the 31458 high may still be in progress, prolonging Minute Degree wave circle ii, but a new low has not been printed either. Sideways corrections can take time, but build a wide base for a strong impulse up. Having touch 31035 twice now on top of the range, a barrier triangle may have formed. The horizontal trend line is typically the direction for breaking out of the pattern.

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Moving the goal post...
With the continued sideway correction (with a new low) from 31458 it is interesting that the original trend line of the ascend from June 15 is now in play again providing support again at this time. Perhaps this will finally trigger bullish sentiment for the next impulse.
I am relabeling the new low as circle ii for now.

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BTC seems ready for break out now. It has confirmed the recent trend line of the ascending channel, touching it twice more, and worked itself in the corner of a triangle with the overhead resistance line at 31035, through which it has pierced already with a wick. We should expect more solid confirmation soon. The wave structure seems to provide enough running room to print a new year high before wave three expires. If that happens, then the existing year high might provide support for the fourth wave consolidation.

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After a news event about Bitcoin ETFs traders just couldn't help themselves better than by taking some profit and probably hunt down some of the stop loss levels of longs. But news events don't set sentiment and the market has returned to the line of resistance just above 31000, where it left off.
The retrace could have been a lot deeper without affecting market structure, because I think this entire correction has been a wave two. A wave two can essentially retrace the entire wave one advance, but not more. Firm sideways action as we have seen it for some time now, appears to underline the bullish sentiment for bitcoin. But this could go on for a while, and deteriorate the outlook. On the other hand, common opinion states that it can strengthen the next impulse. Corrections take either money or time.

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This market is still grappling with the center line of the channel from the 2022 lows. But it has finally taken out the 31000 level with solid candles on the 4-hour scale. The year-high still stands and wee need to see solid trading above about 31500 for confirmation of continuation of the larger trend in Minuit Wave three.

If that can be achieved shortly, the wave structure suggests a target in the yellow zone on this chart.between 38k and 44k. 37.5k is the 100% length of wave ((i)) and a good impulse should be longer than that, most notably 162% or 43.5k.

2.

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But if that cannot be achieved--beating the center line--then trading could be confined to the lower half of the channel for a while, carving out a deep wave two.

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The consolidation seems to continue with a regression channel pointing slightly upward. But traders have achieved a new year-high of 31,500, exceeding the previous mark with just a wick.
This all makes me think that this is possibly just an ending diagonal in the fifth wave of the larger impulse of wave ((i)). This could lead to a larger take-down of the market for wave ((ii)).

In this chart I still have this labeled as correction ((ii)), but beware.

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Now that BTC has once again printed a new year-high, it appears that the sideways consolidation may finally have come to an end.
A possible wave count in indicated in this chart, where the current wave degree is still uncertain.

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This wave count has been invalidated by the deep correction on the 14th of July that took out more then the gain of the day before. This seems to indicate that the progression since the recent low was a completed leading diagonal. The new year-high would be wave 1 and the drop wave two in one larger degree if the current level can be held and further drops avoided.

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With the continued narrow trading range sideways, I have reconsidered the wave count since the June low. We can mark the most recent year-high as the end of Minute wave ((i)) and the drop last week as wave ((ii)).

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Here is the market in the 4 hour chart with my current preference of wave count.
From the recent year-high we have seen an almost exact 38.2% correction in wave ((ii)). Quite possibly this is not over, as second waves can retrace a lot more, but it could be sufficient at this Fibonacci level (darkest red-shaded area). The current lower bound of the larger upward trend is around 27.5k and this could certainly be in play soon, unless more buying materializes soon.

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July 28:
The Bitcoin market still shows no sign of upward momentum at this time. A down trend channel has materialized that appears distinct from the sideways move before the July 13 year-high (~31.8k). This may confirm the assignment of wave ((1)) for the peak, and for wave ((ii)) since. The intersection of the recent down channel with the larger degree up trend is in the vicinity of 28000 USD, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which would be a better endpoint of the second wave than the current value of 38.2, as shown in this new 4h chart. The 61.8% retracement falls at about 27,200, yet another highly probable target. Either level could be reached in another one to two weeks of consolidation.

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Down-trend continues firmly in the confines of the channel.

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Bitcoin is showing some strength this week, having broken the top trend line of the downward trend and touching 30k again. This has formed an apparent, new parallel set of trend lines (purple). But the 30k advance may be a first manifestation of the start of wave ((iii)) (circle roman three). A hypothetical assignment of a WXY correction for wave ((ii)) is indicated.
Let's see how this plays out.

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The downtrend appears to be continuing toward a showdown with the major channel trend line as suspected earlier. But instead of dipping down there, trading continues more or less sideways.

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The approach to the larger-channel baseline appears to trigger a break-out attempt, having succeeded to advance past the short-term channel and beyond 30,000 USD. This looks like a wave three in progress, and a new impulse sequence is indicated as a proposal to examine.

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Trading range is down to a few hundred bucks by the 233- and 55-hour running averages squeezing the price. Volume has dried up dramatically.
Something has to break pretty soon here.

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The market is finally quickly approaching the major trend line, in its more or less horizontal anemic trading. As anticipated we did see some widening in the last couple days by break out attempts up and down. The wave pattern looks suspiciously like an ending diagonal in wave C of an ABC pattern as indicated in this latest chart. This could indicate a strong move up in the very near future.
These patterns have to end some day, and at this juncture avoiding the trendline ought to be in the best interest for the bulls.

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So, we finally saw some dynamics. Sellers managed to pull the price down into more reasonable area for a second wave, but it is still about 300 points above the 50% relracement level. Still, the major trendline was broken on the log scale, but not on a linear scale, where the drop stopped exactly on the line, it seems. Most trader are probably using a linear scale. Breaking the trend line is not so earth shaking at the juncture, but it five some people more reason to sell below.

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Sellers have been doing well, and my warnings about the shallow retracements in wave two have been justified, as the retracement now exceeds 80% after this dump.
We now have a strong possibility that the trading in the past weeks was nothing by consolidation all along in wave 2 of Minor degree, with a distinct A-B-C or W-X-Y pattern forming. The B wave produced the year-high. B waves are sucker waves, often, and fool traders into believing a new bull run is starting. Isn't that what happened this year? Just need to wait a little longer. The anemic trading and the failure to break past the 31000 area are further evidence for this new assignment.
Here is the assignment for this possibility: But we have to wait for more confirmation.

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This is likely the correct wave assignment of the larger degree wave in the diagram, Although the drop has not yet exceeded the prior low, in the Ethereum market it has, which requires this assignment.
Only change I would make at this point is the wave degree, and upgrade it as Intermediate Degree wave (2). This is different from Ether where an Intermediate progression 1-2 was already complete after the market lows of last year.

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No volatility to speak off. Trading a in $50 range is not sustainable much longer, the 200/233 hour MA has almost collapsed onto the 50/55 hour MA. Something has to give soon, up for wave 3 perhaps or down for a deeper wave 2. There is strong support below, but overall sentiment for lower prices may be too. But even that does not break the larger upward outlook. August is a slow month and in a week or so, traders will come back.

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For the record:

Trading is exactly around the 78% retracement level of the Fibonacci manifold of the most recent impulse (on the left). Coincidence?

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Dealing with news events is always tricky and a $2000 spike cannot be just ignored, despite the fact that news don't change sentiment in the market.
The bears have been trying to pull the price away from 26000, but it is defended and the line has held pretty well and caused trading essentially horizontally until today. We will have to see whether the elevated price can be sustained, and momentum can be carried further. There is a possibility that this is just a retracement of the recent drop, perhaps a B wave which so often is a bull trap.

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But it can also be a first wave of a new uptrend. The second wave is already indicated with a ABC zigzag.

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The spike looks really like another three-wave structure, so is not impulsive. This may just develop into further sideways trading, just at a higher level.

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Nothing much has changed in the fundamentals of the Bitcoin chart in September. Bulls have defended a baseline at about 25k, established with the recent low of mid-June in correction from the high of mid-April. It is noteworthy that bears failed to break below that low in September, falling short by about $150, after which the market has seen some recovery, advancing about ten percent.

This failure of breaking below the June low provides a basis for considering a new wave count for the entire consolidatin period of April through September, namely of another 1-2 sequence within the larger wave three consideration, as shown in the following graph:

An extended third wave following a 1-2, 1-2 sequence of similar wave degree might be a powerful impulse that could drive a bullish advance of Bitcoin into the 2024 halving event. Confirmation would come from continuation of the current market position to above the years high just below 32k. Breaking below the June low (~24.7) would invalidate this idea.

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Adding to the idea that Bitcoin has printed a double 1-2 sequence, it should be noted that the Ether chart has been in such a constellation for over a year, as seen in this chart: Wave (1) was completed in August of 2022, with the low of November completing the second wave (2). Wave 1 in Minor degree completed about April 15.

This would synchronize the Bitcoin market with the Ethereum chart and a powerful wave 3, as well as (3), could emerge propelling both assets to new highs for the year and perhaps even to all-time highs after the halving.

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Not much change in the bitcoin market in a couple weeks. BTC appears to be preparing to challenge the 30k area of resistance, having risen to playing with the 28k level for a couple of days, and having traded in an upward regression channel (+/-2 sd) for almost a month, since the 9/11 low of c. 24.9 k. More upside seems plausible, with a general sentiment by many that October should be a good month for crypto.

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Copying my comments…..

Today, the market seems to have added a few dollars to the 2023 high of bitcoin. The October rally panned out and appears poised for more gains as the wave count seems incomplete in the small timeframes. Printing a new high above the Minor wave one, per our degree decisions so far, should confirm the count that wave three is in progress.

Bingo….. This clearly is a third wave on multiple degrees. Price has rushed past 34000 in a hurry. So far it stopped very close to the 2.618 extension from start at 26533, which is where wave two ended. At this point some retracement is probably in order. Overhead, we have some room until the next level of resistance should kick in.

So, bitcoin added to almost 35.2 kilodollars so far. It has been a 33% appreciation in just about two weeks time since the last relative bottom, which should be the end of a second wave of minor degree in my count. October has been a good month once again for crypto. There is certainly room for more before the 40k maj round number, with some resistance below.

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Since 9/11 which marked the end of wave two in intermediate degree, (2), the gain in wave (3) has been a whopping 41% from bottom to peak.

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We are now observing a little consolidation in what looks like a typical bull flag per traditional analysis. That wisdom prescribes a continuation by the length of the flag pole, which could be as little as 2000 additional points to perhaps 37 to 38 k, or as much as 5 k or more to the 40 k region. 40 k is a major psychological marker so I wouldn’t bet for more right away.

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Bull flag with regression channel:

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This "bull flag" is already complete as the continuation appears to have started with price moving out of the regression channel.
I count it as a simple a-b-c flat correction followed by a 1-2 beginning a new upward impulse.
The ABC might just be. A second wave in a larger extended third wave that drove the price to 35.2 k$.
All this chatter about short squeeze and news effect is just noise.

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Well, the wave degree of this consolidation is certainly larger than I previously assumed. That was just the first leg of a triangle, which became clearer as the market developed. As it stands wave d may or may not be complete.

On the hourly chart:

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On the larger scale, with weekly bars, we find the bull market well established since the lows of November 2022, almost one year in the making.

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It is not difficult to count the indicated wave c in the triangle at the top of the market as a five-wave sequence, instead of a three. This could indicate that the entire structure is not a triangle, but rather just a flat ABC correction. We have to wait for further development and see whether bears can pull this down once more into an e-wave.

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The Elliott wave triangle formation seems clear now, with a relatively shallow, so far, wave e developing.
Market has refused to break to the downside significantly, and the 233-hour (or 200-hour) MA is catching up fast in support of the levels.
Bears foolish enough to short into this well known formation should be hurting soon, as the probability is high for another substantial move upwards, likely reaching the 38 k level.

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A comment might be in order about the often cited possibility or expectation of ETF approval soon. Such news events do not drive market direction, they produce only noise. The real reasons for bitcoin appreciation at this time are much more deeply rooted in the general state of the financial markets, the uncontrolled expansion of the money supply, and flight into gold-like investments among which Bitcoin seems to fit. International adoption as a currency is increasing. But surely, the prospect of large funds buying up the scarce bitcoin supplies on the exchanges cannot hurt the price level, especially in the period around the halving event, when miners will get once again less for their efforts.

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On the daily chart the perspective also cannot be clearer, indicating that the currently forming triangle is likely just a minor degree consolidation within a third wave of larger degree.

The 55/233 or 50/200 day moving averages have formed a strong signal, in that the short term averages have crossed over the long-term lines.

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Although the upper trend line of the triangle as drawn yesterday has been broken as of this morning, it is too early to call this formation complete. yesterday’s price action (the suggested e wave) may simply belong to the d wave still. A trend line only requires two support points, and the second one may not be present yet.
The d wave is not simple to count out as a three yet.
The only other confirmation of continuation upward would be exceeding the high price of 35.2 k.

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This market worked like clockwork, it appears. We got a nice pop well beyond 35.2 k in a small degree third wave after the morning's break of the triangle. This may well involve some short squeezing and SL hunting by market makers, but the larger structure of the market cannot be denied.

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Exit from triangle.

tradingview.com/chart/S1eG0z1R/

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The triangle idea is probably invalidated by now, in that the market now trades in an ascending channel of parallel trend lines, also a bullish formation with higher lows and higher highs.
This chart shows both on a 15 minute basis.
This may take a bit longer to penetrate the resistance overhead.

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This channel may well represent a sequence of 3-4 and 3-4 peaks and wave corrections for the corresponding 1-2 and1-2 steps of the rise starting about October 11, to complete an extended wave 3. In that case one might expect a fifth wave of the size of wave 1, or about 2 to 2.5 k in price.

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The count for this is indicated in the following 4-hour chart.

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It looks like this ascending channel is going to be with us for some time more.
I am expecting a conclusion of a correction phase for third wave ((iii)) in circle Roman four ((iv)).
After that the market should go a couple thousand points higher at least.

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Exit from the ascending channel has been swift after touching the bottom trend line a day ago, having now traded through the upper trend line a few times, and even briefly looked beyond 37000 dollars.

The upper trend line should now serve as support for a future consolidation which is sure to arrive after completion of the current five-wave sequence indicated on the chart.

38000 might be a short-term target, but the larger wave count points to more upside.

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Let us take a look at where this ma4ket is on a larger scale. This bull market is now about one year old, if you were alive and alert.
It sure looks like the larger third wave on the weekly scale could land somewhere in the upper 40 k range, at the top trend line of the channel.

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The 100% extension of wave one for the third wave lands at about 49.4 k, and we should expect at least that, if not a more conventional 162%. The third wave cannot be the shortest wave of 1, 3, or 5. So hold on for the ride.

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Even if this is a counter-rally to the bear market of 2021/2022, we should expect more upside here.

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38,000 was a pretty good target for todays impulse,. It was only 22 dollars short of that round number. Some recoil is probably in order here for the rest of the day. .

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This is the concept:

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The 38k advance was quickly sold out, triggering the anticipated recoil. This is not surprising and no reason to change the opinion. 38 k has been a zone of resistance from long ago.
Ether has finally caught up with BTC’s successes, and printed a new year high over 2100 in its double digit percentage move. The ETHBTC chart had touched the bottom trend line of the long term channel and yesterday’s events triggered a sharp bounce off the line. Perhaps this is the time to shift more funds into ETH again. In the last year we’ve been favoring BTC.

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Today’s sharp rise from beyond the bottom of the regression channel to the top, just short of a new year high, is pretty, but beware buying into it.
This looks suspiciously like.a B wave, following a flat ABC to make a larger ABC correction. B waves are sucker waves, faking bullish character, only to be sold off in the final C wave to complete the correction.
Watch out whether this continues to form a new year high this afternoon still, but even that is no guarantee of safety.
I have the feeling we have a 1-2 sequence completing in anticipation of a large leg up in wave three. Today’s spike may be the start of that, otoh.

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Here is the chart of that.

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Yesterday’s run fell just three bucks short of the year high signaling that this may have been just a correction rally within a larger structure, as I warned about yesterday. It has so far been sold off to 38%, a significant Fib level, but more is certainly in the cards. The sell-off looks like a clean abc structure so far.

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The sell-off has advanced to the next significant level, at 50 %.
This looks like a normal wave two correction, with wave one being yesterday’s run.
If that holds true, then we should be prepared for a sizable wave three commencing out of this retrace, of at least over 8 % gain, or more likely a 1.62 multiple of that, or 13 %, reaching toward 42,000 in the bitcoin price, before the next corrective action.

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This chart clearly shows the significant Fibonacci zones, not only of the retrace, but the very structure of the prior rally. Fibonacci relationships are abundant in the markets, as nature as well as human endeavors grow in fractal geometries.

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Added another important level

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Here is how I see this market growing into the upper 40 thousands, given the current conditions.

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It looks like price is breaking through the upper trend line of the symmetrical triangle that’s been forming for days, after a quick journey to test the bottom last night.
This consolidation may be done finally.

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The market confirmed that notion in a five-wave impulse that finally broke into the 38 k bracket by a margin of some $400 in its fifth wave. It being the fifth wave, we should expect some consolidation once again into wave two of one higher degree, so the market should struggle a little more with the 38 k line. But the market direction appears firmly in place. Just patience is needed to shake loose of the bears and reach the next level of resistance.

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In the bigger picture, the following wave counts in this 4h chart still appear relevant, but alternate counts might be possible.

In any event, the ascending channel clearly still dominates trading, and has confined price movement. I do expect a breakout from this channel at some point, for a substantial advance into the mid 40k region, before we might expect substantial corrections or consolidation below 50000, in a zone of fourth and fifth waves as hinted at by the wave projections in the upper right of the chart.

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The retracing of the impulse to the new year-high of last week at c. 38.4 k$ may be coming to an end at the lower trend line of the ascending trading channel in effect since late October. Prices could still go lower without violating any wave counts, so there should be no concern yet about the trend. The channel was expanded slightly after the smaller wave degrees had fully played out, as indicated in the chart. But we should expect prices to move to the top of the channel soon.

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As predicted, price has recovered swiftly to beyond the 38000 mark, which coincides with the center line of the month-long ascending channel right now. This appears to now have turned into support at least in the short term so far.

The top of the channel is at around 39.2 k right now, which could possibly be in reach if the market can surpass the existing high set last week, but has so far today been missed by only 17 dollars or so.

The possibility of a longer lasting consolidation here still exists as long the market stays below that high. Resolution should not be far off.

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Bitcoin has hit the 39000 mark, proceeding pretty much as foreseen in our wave counting here. The Elliott wave evolution has been clear.
The top of the trading channel is now at about 40000 $, not far overhead. We should expect some consolidation at the top of channel from fourth wave completions, or larger retraces from completed five-wave sequences, depending on what the remaining 1000 points produce. But beyond, little chart resistance is evident until 48000, except the major tick marks falling on thousands, for psychological resistance.
It will be interesting to see what a breakout from the month-long channel may hold.

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The breakout toward the 40 k mark was swift and the inner top of the ascending trading channel has been reached and exceeded. A secondary, wider channel still exists, and remains to be broken.
The 40000 mark certainly presents some psychological resistance, as a lot of bears remain in denial. The market structure remains in an upward bias, as multiple wave degrees in third wave progress remain operational.

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Breaking 40000 wasn’t so hard after all. Let’s see whether the market hovers here a little. Consolidation in the minor wave degrees is possible, and plausible.
Other than that, 48000 seems the next major goal, which represents the top of the largest channel, starting with the lows of the 2022 bear market.

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The market had an easy time traversing the 40 k to 42 k zone, as we have expected here more or less.
Trading has broken out of the ascending channel that guided traders through resistances in the 30000s in a struggle with short sellers. Without significant chart resistance now the risk of short trades is significantly higher, and momentum should propel this market higher.
The next resistance should come in around 48 k, the top of the trading channel since a year ago, coinciding with a significant price level in the bear market of 2022. With the momentum at hand, this could easily be achieved this week.

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The existing third wave chart structure indicates that this run might continue to at least 50.5 k, to produce a 100% extension of the first wave, if nor the 162% of a typical Elliott impulse, which points to the mid 70 k range. A continuation of the strong start for December could conceivably produce such a Christmas rally.

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Here is the larger view of the bitcoin market as we see it, in weekly bars.
If the 1-2 assignment is correct for the beginning bull market, it is hard to see that the current rally would not extent into 50, 60,and 70 thousands.

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As this series of updates started in June, this a good time to continue this thread in a new post with an updated header chart to reflect the current state of the market as we see it.

unbeldi

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