Bitcoin - Where to next?
Checking on Bitcoin ... it has reached the blue box trade exit range from the last update but failed to rise above with any strength.
Looking at the macro landscape, the US is looking worse. Trump hails drugs he claims proves helps with the virus, while in the same press conference his top infectious disease head doctor disputes his claim. That happened within about 10 minutes. The people look to the adminstration for guidance and instruction, but they get fed false hope.
The Trump administration is sending out relief packages to calm the masses, but so far is failing terribly with the optics of it all. The leadership seems to always say something very questionable, and again, his own disease chief contradicts Trump in the same conference. I wonder if Trump's ego he will fire him in the next week once things spiral out of control even more ... anyway ...
I do expect Monday to be a bad day in the stock market. The US is slowly going into lock down ... instead of rippig off the bandaid and locking everyone down, they are doing it in groups ... now its New York and California some other hot spots ... pretty soon I believe it will be the whole country. The crisis before that will be something we never thought would happen ... there will be no more medical supplies. Something we all never think about ... we throw face masks away without thinking about it twice ... now we have to. People are rationing paper towels at home ... where once if you ripped off an extra sheet or two, no big deal, throw it out, there is always more. Not anymore ... we count how many sheets we use all the time. What a disruption to life.
Also, workers mindset are currently 1 or 2 things. One ... tragically, they are laid off. Or two, they are upset they have to go in to work. Employers are in a bind ... do I keep the employee on the payroll even though there is less, or even no, production? The employment numbers are going to be a complete mess for the foreseeable future. Nearly all service based employees seemingly will be out of work.
So given all of that, I do expect more downside to come. Even though Bitcoin made it to the bule zone target, the S&P500 did not. We expected S&P to rise to around 3000, but it failed and has broken back down.
This makes me believe this Bitcoin rise was a bull trap. Only when Bitcoin rises to around 9000 and holds 7000 as support ... I think then its safe to jump in.
I am one of those people that believes that markets will rebound before life does. The institutional sector will begin the price recovery before the general public even realizes it. We just have to time it. And for now, I dont think they have started to heavily accumulate.
I think the next move is down to the 3000s, highlighted in the green rectangle on the chart. Given the situation, I actually would not be surprised if it drops even more. If it drops and 3000s become resistance, then we should look for 1500 - 1800 as a landing zone.
When looking at RSI, we will hope to see bullish divergence to be confirmed. I put arrows on how we want it to act ... if RSI does not make new lows along with the price, this will give a lot of confidence to jump in at these prices.
Looking at the macro landscape, the US is looking worse. Trump hails drugs he claims proves helps with the virus, while in the same press conference his top infectious disease head doctor disputes his claim. That happened within about 10 minutes. The people look to the adminstration for guidance and instruction, but they get fed false hope.
The Trump administration is sending out relief packages to calm the masses, but so far is failing terribly with the optics of it all. The leadership seems to always say something very questionable, and again, his own disease chief contradicts Trump in the same conference. I wonder if Trump's ego he will fire him in the next week once things spiral out of control even more ... anyway ...
I do expect Monday to be a bad day in the stock market. The US is slowly going into lock down ... instead of rippig off the bandaid and locking everyone down, they are doing it in groups ... now its New York and California some other hot spots ... pretty soon I believe it will be the whole country. The crisis before that will be something we never thought would happen ... there will be no more medical supplies. Something we all never think about ... we throw face masks away without thinking about it twice ... now we have to. People are rationing paper towels at home ... where once if you ripped off an extra sheet or two, no big deal, throw it out, there is always more. Not anymore ... we count how many sheets we use all the time. What a disruption to life.
Also, workers mindset are currently 1 or 2 things. One ... tragically, they are laid off. Or two, they are upset they have to go in to work. Employers are in a bind ... do I keep the employee on the payroll even though there is less, or even no, production? The employment numbers are going to be a complete mess for the foreseeable future. Nearly all service based employees seemingly will be out of work.
So given all of that, I do expect more downside to come. Even though Bitcoin made it to the bule zone target, the S&P500 did not. We expected S&P to rise to around 3000, but it failed and has broken back down.
This makes me believe this Bitcoin rise was a bull trap. Only when Bitcoin rises to around 9000 and holds 7000 as support ... I think then its safe to jump in.
I am one of those people that believes that markets will rebound before life does. The institutional sector will begin the price recovery before the general public even realizes it. We just have to time it. And for now, I dont think they have started to heavily accumulate.
I think the next move is down to the 3000s, highlighted in the green rectangle on the chart. Given the situation, I actually would not be surprised if it drops even more. If it drops and 3000s become resistance, then we should look for 1500 - 1800 as a landing zone.
When looking at RSI, we will hope to see bullish divergence to be confirmed. I put arrows on how we want it to act ... if RSI does not make new lows along with the price, this will give a lot of confidence to jump in at these prices.
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