BTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% BTC, 35% Cash. *SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES. The Crypto rally took a break this weekend with Bitcoin and Ethereum both seeing a lot of selling pressure as they retest a critical resistance, exhibiting a potential Double Top formation as a result. Equities and Cryptos have a lot of ground to still recover even if this is a bear market rally; the current outlook is a mainly bullish August leading up to the Ethereum Merge and next FOMC meeting in September. Key dates this week: Final July S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI @ 945am EST (08/01); St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks @ 645pm EST (08/02); Cleveland Fed Loretta Mester speaks 12pm EST (08/03); July BLS Employment Situation @ 830am EST (08/04).* Price is currently trending down at $23300 after being rejected by $24180 minor resistance for the second time (both in July), this has formed a short term Double Top formation that will need to be invalidated before going back to being fully bullish; a Bull Flag is currently being formed and would need to hold for this to be possible. Volume has shrunken the previous four sessions and has favored sellers in the previous three sessions, indicating that a breakout/breakdown may be pending (with more of a bias toward a breakdown at the moment). Parabolic SAR flips bearish at the 50 MA ($21.3k), this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI remains trending sideways at 57 support* (previous BTC RSI analysis was incorrect), this is a critical support level because it coincides with the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018; the next resistance (minor is at 70) and the next support is the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~50. Stochastic remains bearish for a second consecutive session as it tests 78 support. MACD remains bullish but is forming a soft peak as it trends sideways at 459, it is still technically testing 313 resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 20 as Price is attempting to push higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to break above $24180 minor resistance then it will likely retest the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$28k as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test the 50 MA at ~$21.5k before potentially retesting $19417 support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $22.5k.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.