Bulls are showing some sings of life, just lack of conviction

Updated

After a few week rallies to 6800 last week, lack of volume and conviction of the bulls caused that drop to the 6300/6100 levels. I gave a warning before the drop, even though i was bullish, i was very disappointed that the last rally we made got sold of at the 6800, again! Many alts have been bleeding big time lately making crypto HDOLing very painful. The past 2 days bulls have shown some signs of life, but still a very long way to go before we can become bullish.
Today we broke resistance around 6300, we even broke a small triangle, alts are pushing higher already, everything is set for a good rally. The only problem now is volume, it's to low and it's not confirming the break out.
So 2 options, we make a pullback an test support around 6250/6300 again, or this was all just a bear shake out.
If we are able to hold support and make a decent rally now, we might even be able to reach the 6800 within 2 days, like i mentioned a few days. This could bring that inverse H&S in play again. So if bulls are ready to show some conviction here, there is a chance for 7K+ prices the coming weeks. But the coming few days will be decisive IMO.

The bearish scenario would be the red line, simply just starting to drop from the current levels because the 6400 resistance is just to heavy for the bulls. So even if we break this level, i believe we need to see some good follow through the coming 2/3 days. Otherwise a big drop could still happen.

At the moment, i favor the bulls, the setup is there, they just need to grab the opportunity that is presenting itself. We have had a bearish mid-term trend for quite some time now since the 10K high, is there is a moment to change this, i believe this 5800 is that moment. This does not mean the bear market is over tough, thats way to soon.

So IMO the coming few days will probably tell us where the market is headed for the coming weeks.

Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)

David

Previous analysis:

First time Bitcoin has showed strength since the 10K, what now

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Someone on Twitter showed me an analysis here on TV, talking about Bitmex. I have been thinking for a while now to post a big report about what is going on in this market in 2018, but have not had the time yet.
Anyway, i told him posted something similar half a year ago, i reread my educational post, think it's worth while to show you guys, for the ones who missed it. Gives a bit of a reality check of what this market has become.

Bitmex, Bitcoin future trading, volume increased enormously !!

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Looking pretty good at the moment :) nedt goal is 6650 is, think that be an important level to test next. Things could slow down there again, best case Bulls just push higher and higher towards 6800, than it will probably only be a matter of time until that breaks as well and we move to 7K prices

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First target reached now, things could cool down here. But bulls are doing exactly what i hoped for, pushing higher with conviction!. Beautiful chart from my previous analysis, still need to break the 6800 of course, but almost 80% sure we will see 7K+ prices this week :)

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And there we are, it's a wonderful day :) week actually, but before hoping for a new ATH, lets stay realistic, there is still a long way to go. Targets are around 7600/7800, but also a heavy resistance, if bulls can break that this week, their might be hope for the long term. But still a long way to.

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Sorry guys for the late update, i post more updates in my public channel sometimes. Bitcoin is still looking good and stable, but like most of you, are in alts. These are getting some very big hits! Alt's are showing the market is still nog ready for a good solid rally. Like it was all just a big scheme for some players again to pump Bitcoin so they could dump the Alts for decent prices. Even though i am a big bear on this market, even i did not expect this weakness. Think alle we can hope for, the bulls that is. Is to see a stable Bitcoin around these levels 7200/7600, that would give confidence to the market to start to BUY alts again instead of dumping at the first chance they get.
I will try to make a new analysis later today or tomorrow

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If anyone has a theory about why the alts are so extremely weak, be my guest and tell your story, i will try to respond later this weekend. I still have to figure it out and what the intentions are of this rally. Maybe we can figure it out together :)

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So the bulls pushed through the 7500 resistance and managed to reach the target of the H&S as well around 7700 (still a bit short). Breakout has some volume, but not huge and some sellers are pushing it down again as we speak. If they can hold it above 7500 it's great, above 7450 is important

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And again Alts are not doing anything, everyone thinking alts give much more % during a rally, well clearly not the case this time

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7350 is an important level, if it breaks, we could see the 7200 retest, going pretty fast

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Were are still not in the clear, but bulls are trying at the moment to push higher. This is a weak inverse H&S, but could still work out, as long as that green support holds. Some alts are showing signs of life, but far from bullish yet.
If Bitcoin is able to push 7400, then we can think about maybe this correction down is over, MAYBE.

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Bulls are putting the pressure on now, if they can hold it here and keep putting in buying volume, i think the bears might loose and we could see a (small) squeeze to 7700/7800. Need to keep it above the 7450 and 7400 max

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Alts are also showing they want to move up, so things are looking good now, but not there yet. Bulls need to show confidence now!!

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I see a similar fight as a week ago around 6750, just before the squeeze, clearly some bears trying to short it here, if the bulls show force, these same bears will cause a squeeze up again. Lets see if the bulls can win again. Since it is taking long time now, the longer it takes the bigger the squeeze, if they win here it could even pass the 7800, if the manage to do that, it could go much higher even.
For now the 7500/7440 should hold.
If Alts follow, than things will get clear, that the push of the alts was just a game to load up at low prices

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From what i can see, alts have broken out, some exchanges want to move up, but i can see clearly that some big payers are trying to hold the price down on Bitmex, just saw a 3 mil sell order a few min ago. Probably the same people who did it at 6750/6800. If bulls pull it of now, we could see a good jump in alts as well, could be the start of another move up coming week. 7800 is a very important turning point, that could break if a squeeze happens now. Hopefully we get our answer very soon :)

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Still similar to the April rally, only big difference are we have had weaker alts this weak. Someone is still pushing down on Bitmex, just were 10 mil sell orders in 3 orders. I see this only on Bitmex, not on Bitfinex.
But bulls are still trying, keeping the pressure on, defending the 7500

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It failed guys

botje11

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