Long

5.618 Fibonacci Touch? Is a 356% Bitcoin Gain possible this time

Continuation of the Trend? Will Q4 Give Us the Shock and Awe We Deeply Desire?

Following the excitement of the FOMC rate cut, we have observed a price action uptick, as anticipated based on our ongoing analysis since early 2023. Cycle analysis has proven effective thus far, and with this in mind, we are at the very brink of our moon mission. Welcome to Quarter 4: Uptober, Moonvember, and the December to Remember.

Currently

Examining the daily chart with a few key indicators, the trend appears healthy and positive for bulls. The Hull Suite Indicator, in conjunction with the Donchian Trend Ribbon and LuxAlgo's Supertrend AI, shows strong bullish momentum. Additionally, the price is above both the 200D EMA and the 21W EMA. With these five pieces of information aligning to suggest bullishness, I feel reassured that we are on track.

Furthermore, the Fibonacci retracement analysis indicates that we have surpassed the 100% retracement level and are currently hovering around that point. If we maintain the price above ~, the next Fibonacci level to watch is the 1.618 retracement, which would bring us to approximately ~73k. Tomorrow's opening will be critical. If bulls can hold the price, we should anticipate a vibrant week ahead.

This September has been notably atypical, with Bitcoin's current monthly return hovering around ~11% as I write. This performance has flipped the average return for September—post-halving—into a positive. Now comes the excitement: with the proverbial “God Candle” lit, we should expect the next several months to remain bullish.

While the upward price movement has been slightly less thrilling in recent days, we can refer to the Rate of Change indicator on the BTC chart. Currently, we sit at 3.6, a notable decline from the FOMC rate cut day, when we peaked above 8.

On the weekly chart, we continue to see an increase in global liquidity, further supporting our bullish thesis regarding Bitcoin’s price potential until this trend changes.

Another noteworthy observation from this chart is the emergence of what appears to be a cup-and-handle pattern, projecting a target of approximately 300k. This aligns with a 5.618 extension from the last cycle's top to bottom, presenting an extreme target with a potential ~350% return from today's Bitcoin price. I find this cup-and-handle target, which coincides with a Fibonacci area, particularly intriguing. I will share this idea on TradingView, allowing us to replay the candles later and monitor its progression.

Risk Analysis

As noted last week, I will maintain a dedicated section in my weekly writing focused on market conditions from both sentiment and technical perspectives.

Fear and Greed: Currently, we observe a sentiment of greed. Extreme greed often precedes market tops; however, we haven’t seen that sentiment for some time. For our purposes, today’s reading appears acceptable, but it may not be the optimal moment to enter a leveraged position.

Analyzing the liquidation heatmap in conjunction with the aforementioned fear and greed indicators, I see liquidation areas below ~ as potential short-term targets for traders looking to push the price down. This serves as a cautionary reminder to avoid becoming a late long.

Risk Assessment: 0
Accumulation and Distribution:** Accumulation
PUELL Multiple: 1 (Bullish)
BB%: .65 (Bullish, trending higher)
Hash Ribbons: Trending higher, with slight flattening
Mayer Multiple: 2 (Bullish, trending higher)

In conclusion, the increase in global liquidity continues to positively influence Bitcoin's price. We are hearing ongoing news of further easing and stimulus, particularly from China. Historically, Q4 brings substantial gains for Bitcoin, and I see no current indications suggesting a deviation from this trend.

As previously mentioned, exercise caution with leverage; although the weekly timeframe remains bullish, intra-day trading can be volatile, and losses are possible without a proper entry strategy. Personally, I avoid leverage but continue to utilize trading bots from Bitsgap across various exchanges.

Opportunities abound, friends. Now is the time for action. If you find yourself on the sidelines, rise and engage—don’t let this moment slip away.

Calzolaio

I’m passionate about analyzing charts and uncovering patterns. Your support means I can dedicate more time to this work. If you'd like to help, follow my link: linktr.ee/pcalzolaio. Thank you!

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