I've tried to make this as visually comprehensible as possible by tracking each move, thus giving us a possibility of a third fractal playing out to end our parabolic run. As noted in the chart, we may not compete the entire fractal and end midway. Each fractal seems to exist within it's own channel before ascending out of it into a new one. That would make sense as a parabola. I've given two scenarios, one in blue (breaking into another channel) the other in magenta (staying in current channel). Also the 4 hr ichimoku cloud JUST flipped green giving us the go as we have established good support below us for several weeks now. Let's see how this plays out.
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Wassily Kandinsky just made an abstract painting on top of my RSI indicator.
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Kandinsky added some more abstraction to the mix. Every fractal has the same structure he says. Let's see if he's right.
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Two possible pennants drawn here. Also an extra target if we break out of this current channel and hit the median line of the next if there is one.
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There's also a good chance we bounce here of the 50 RSI on the 4hr.
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I just noticed this pattern on the AO. Same pattern that may seem to confirm the fractal playing out. If so this is the dip to continue higher and the 4 hr RSI has already been reset for higher continuation.
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Not sure where we are, but two possible plays here, hard dump or going parabolic soon. Fractal can fail as past performance is not indicative of future results.Note
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Hitting some resistance. Hopefully this weekend we party y'all.
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Boom! All is going to plan. Broke the current channel and ridding the median line of the new channel predetermined by the angle of attack of the previous one. If the fractal still intends to play out then 10.6k was the dip to the next target up. I'm looking at just under
12K or $13k.Note
Adjusted angle of attack.
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En route. 13k, possibly 14k. Then correction and we'll see where we go from there.
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GG. Now let's hope for a healthy consolidation.
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Break the blue box this fractal is done.
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Excellent reaction off the blue support boxarino. I've spotted A-B-C-D-E triangles on the RSI and structure. We'll see if it plays out. I'd also like to see another twin peaks form on the AO. If all goes in accordance to the fractal, then i'm targeting anywhere from 15-17k (possibly higher but not gonna make that call just yet). Once the triangle forms we'll be able to pinpoint the angle of attack with a new channel.
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BTCily Kandinsky was here.
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Can I has a twin peaks please?
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Holding support so far. Enter the blue zone below at 10.2k we done and the rest of the fractal is invalidated. If we form a pennant here, I expect us to see 15-16k as a last impulse up. Also keeping an eye on the AO for a bullish consolidation.
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Edging on the last bit of support to invalidate the whole structure. If a twin peaks forms on the 4 hr here then that would be our C and E of the A-B-C-D-E. Whew lad this is getting intense!
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Actually might be the A of the A-B-C-D-E. We basically wicked past strong support and made our way back up. Id actually like to see some bull div on the AO, possibly twin peaks at the A. Let's see the B form and I'll enter at the C. First things first, complete this descending wedgie.
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Similar structure in March.
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If 10k doesn't hold then the next level i'm looking at is 9.4k. Whew lad!
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Broke my line of support last night, but there was a good reaction of the .382, now hitting resistance at the .618. If we can break this recent high then I think we will see a new high. 4hr AO is flipping bullish and a possible twin peaks may form. Currently I'm neutral until otherwise. A lot of bullish divergences last night when we were sub 10k. Also a liquidity pull right under 9.7 happened that gave me good reason that we'd at least see a good bounce. Here is where the real work is done.
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Arthur thanks you for your liquidity.
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Bull/bear scenario
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Fractal structure still in tact. 11.5-11.6k was major resistance. Short term target 12.1k and then some ranging is what I'm expecting.
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Hit 12.1k and retraced as expected. Currently making a nice bounce off 10.8k. If we can hold these ranges i think we will try to make a run for 12.1k again, where we dropped massively last time. I think we will stop there and range for a bit (12.1-10.8k). If we break through there then I'm eyeing 12.7k. We'll keep a tab on it's movements. 4 hr ichimoku cloud flipped red and then green immediately giving us a good chance for bullish continuation up and over 13.8k. It terms of the fractal I'm a bit in the grey area as we may have broken it already as previously mentioned, but I'll keep tabs on it if there are any structural similarities. Onwards and upwards.
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I'm seeing two possible bullish scenarios here. I'd like us to keep above 10.2k. Anything below I'll start to get bearish.
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Current wedge in play. We are currently beneath its equilibrium. 4 hr cloud giving us mixed signals.
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1 hr RSI
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Consolidation before expansion.
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If we continue in our parabolic uptrend my targets and angle of attack target $15-16k. May change as price vs time develops.
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Where we might be if this fractal is still in play.
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Broke out of its triangle and is currently hitting resistance. Closed a long here and will re-enter soon.
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Update to screenshot above for better visibility.
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What I am seeing currently. Possible continuation to a new high or double top ending diagonal.
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1 hr RSI looking like correction is in play and looking for a local bottom. Currently bouncing off some support, but I think we see at least another leg down, then possibly continue higher. Breaking 11.3k will invalidate my idea for bullish continuation. If that happens then I think we will range around 10k-11kish for sometime.
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Currently backtesting the trend line. This is what I'd like to see before I enter a position. Same divergence should occur on the 15 minute to try to snipe the wick. Not sure, if we'll get there. It could make its way back above the trend line, but it's already hourly candle already closed below it so I'll await patiently. Target for now is a double top (or shoot just over it at around 13.9-14k, anticipating a sweep of short stop losses that are most likely clustered there. If there are any signs of weakness I'll exit. If not I'll let the trade roll until there is. 11.3k will be invalidation of the whole entire move.
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Didn't get the entry I wanted, but entered while triangle was developing. Let's see how far this goes. Looks primed for another move up.
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Fractal still in play. Let's get this bread.
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I'll be honest I was having doubts there, but like I said I wanted to see a C develop and it looks like it's developing. I think D will be around mid 12 to high 12k then come down for the E and then lift off.Note
Potential roadmap.
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Losing some important levels. I'm thinking C will end around 10.8-10.4k. Lose 10.2k I'll turn pretty bearish and will let go of the fractal.
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Rejection at the 1 hr kumo twist targeting the .618 or .786 to complete the C now. Go below the .786 @ 10.2k we go bye bye.
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Looking rather grim. Last chance for bulls imo. I know I said 10.2k, but on the daily we are sitting on top of the 55 ema and kijun sen and in the past it has held rather well. If we break below then ok, I'm bear. That being said I'm quite unsure of what's gonna happen.
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Fractal ded.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.