Wyckoff and iH&S
Updated
Looking at some TA fundamentals, I've given a decent outline of Wyckoff phases and outlined most of the major label points with arrows that can be compared here:
school.stockcharts.com/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method:wyckoffdistribution1.png
It also looks like we're trying to resolve an iH&S which could serve as the final leg down on Phase E before trying to find a new trend
I put in an outline of the final shoulder which I suspect will bounce off around the 0.236 Fib (~9,750)
Short term looks bearish and gives a few solid signals for entry, but the macro trend is not well defined in this 4H chart
Overall waiting for conclusion isn't out of the question, small positions are fine for now until we hit a major breakout which will decide the overall direction of the next move.
Happy trading and as always don't forget to set your stop loss!
school.stockcharts.com/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method:wyckoffdistribution1.png
It also looks like we're trying to resolve an iH&S which could serve as the final leg down on Phase E before trying to find a new trend
I put in an outline of the final shoulder which I suspect will bounce off around the 0.236 Fib (~9,750)
Short term looks bearish and gives a few solid signals for entry, but the macro trend is not well defined in this 4H chart
Overall waiting for conclusion isn't out of the question, small positions are fine for now until we hit a major breakout which will decide the overall direction of the next move.
Happy trading and as always don't forget to set your stop loss!
Note
Something to note:Daily Kijun is currently at ~10650
I could see a Kijun bounce on the higher TF also kick starting a market downtrend
Note
We haven't dipped in the extreme so it looks like this is forming an iH&S with a consistent neckline with descending volume.The second shoulder is forming but might not dip as low as the fib at 9750, could be shallow at the historical point of support at ~10100.
Only time will tell on that one.
This trend is medium term bullish, however:
10EMA is below 50EMA
Price also below 50EMA
50EMA is in the direction of the trend (downward)
This leads me to believe the short term of the next day or so will be somewhat bearish until these indicators have a more positive look about them.
Will check in tomorrow to see where the trend is at
Note
Looks like the historical support at 10100 was the ticket, the wick touched that price level almost exactly.iH&S almost complete, volume descending, reversal looks like it's gearing up to take off but is not confirmed yet.
Remember there can always be a breakdown on low volume trends, wait for confirmation!
Trending towards the neckline at ~10700 and then we'll see what happens
Trade closed manually
Well look at thatWe breached and fell back with style in the course of a few hours
After spotting the hidden bear div between July 13th to the recent lower high on the 18th I decided to close at around 11k and wait for more trend confirmation before continuing to hold any position.
For more information on basic divs here's some educational material:
babypips.com/learn/forex/divergence-cheat-sheet
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