Bitcoin in Phases
Updated
This is a modified version of my previous Bitcoin charts. As those who have been following already know, I have not swayed from my opinion that Bitcoin is in full descent mode, even while the calls for higher pricing kept coming out. Sticking to my guns, this has proven to be an accurate direction of the market. I've been testing an experimental pattern, in which a drawn-out parallel comparison to February was used (see cyan box markers, blue "W" pattern). So far this has been a good macro indicator of Bitcoin's general trend downward.
This time I present something less orthodox and also experimental in nature. I have identified some interesting sections in the Bitcoin patterning that I labelled and identified as Phases 1 & 2.
Phase 1 - This section is a sideways, diamond-like shape in which the majority of the price action takes place in a given area with high and low peak extremes, with the exception of the highest points exceeding the dotted orange line boundary and making the upper blue trend line.
Phase 2 - This section is a diagonally crooked rectangle that encompasses an entire movement section. It is also a smaller and narrower pattern. It is entirely contained within the dotted orange and yellow dashed lines. (Current location of movement).
Following from my previous chart's key price lines, I've indicated important support and resistance lines. I expect that the present trend continues and we will be testing the $6000 - $6200 area very soon. Also expect a possible break through at the $6000 line. Should this happen, Bitcoin will likely push somewhere into the $5400 - $5900 range.
So where does Bitcoin go from there? I expect it will then rise after the fall and move up and into the $7300 - $7800 range. After that, I tend to believe the speculation around a continuation of the bear market until further signs prove otherwise. A second price drop would have a high probability of testing below the $4800 line.
See the orange-red arrow lines for a general overview of what I've mentioned above. Zoom in/out and move around the chart for a better look. And as always, keep an eye on the price lines for likely rebound areas.
This time I present something less orthodox and also experimental in nature. I have identified some interesting sections in the Bitcoin patterning that I labelled and identified as Phases 1 & 2.
Phase 1 - This section is a sideways, diamond-like shape in which the majority of the price action takes place in a given area with high and low peak extremes, with the exception of the highest points exceeding the dotted orange line boundary and making the upper blue trend line.
Phase 2 - This section is a diagonally crooked rectangle that encompasses an entire movement section. It is also a smaller and narrower pattern. It is entirely contained within the dotted orange and yellow dashed lines. (Current location of movement).
Following from my previous chart's key price lines, I've indicated important support and resistance lines. I expect that the present trend continues and we will be testing the $6000 - $6200 area very soon. Also expect a possible break through at the $6000 line. Should this happen, Bitcoin will likely push somewhere into the $5400 - $5900 range.
So where does Bitcoin go from there? I expect it will then rise after the fall and move up and into the $7300 - $7800 range. After that, I tend to believe the speculation around a continuation of the bear market until further signs prove otherwise. A second price drop would have a high probability of testing below the $4800 line.
See the orange-red arrow lines for a general overview of what I've mentioned above. Zoom in/out and move around the chart for a better look. And as always, keep an eye on the price lines for likely rebound areas.
Comment
Bitcoin made it's interim run up sooner than expected, which will change how things play out. Right now $7550-7650 is a realistic area it may peak at, with $7800 being what I would say a maximum, however up to even $8000 is possible. More than likely the price should settle closer to $7600 and resume a downtrend as the volume has been decreasing. As such, when it falls it will be harder and sub-$4800 has increased in likelihood when Bitcoin takes a downturn.Comment
I'm still working on the specifics and need to chart this out fully. Once again, experimental, but the EMA 50 does not lie. We are about to have a down drive from here. It's happened twice before and as you can see, we are nearing the same sort of positioning: Comment
At the present, a return to around the $6900 - 7100 range is in the cards. There is a chance that $7200-7300 may also be seen again, but I would temper my expectations. A decrease from that point down to $6550 is of a high probability. There is also a chance we may see a re-test on the $6450 line from where it rebounded earlier, but likely not before further movement within the $6500-7100 range. Note that volume has been decreasing and may inhibit big movements until it returns.
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