BTC ranging, look for a break out
Updated
Using key fib levels drawn on the 2 hour TF, I'm expecting BTC to range between 4793 and 4323 for a couple of weeks. Sell at 4.7x and buy at 4.3x.
A close above the 2 hour 4793 will mean a push up to the next range at 5830. A close below will mean we are likely to test new lows. Based on weekly blocks drawn in September 17, the next level is 3663. But we are at the base of the monthly breaker block painted also in September last year.
The key TA question is: Will price levels being drawn now respect blocks painted in September 17 on the weekly TF, or the monthly TF. Common sense suggests the monthly, so I'm long with bids placed at 4300. I'll add more each time we get close to 4.3, and I'll close them if the 2 hour closes below 4323. NB, the scary part will be the odd dip to 4.3, 4.2 or even 4.1. Hold on tight and only exit if they fail to bounce and close on the 2 hour lower than 4323.
Weekly block significance:
Key fib levels drawn on the weekly block:
Monthly block significance:
Key fib levels drawn on the monthly block:
What's going on with the daily:
What to look for next:
Range confirmation. Does BTC spend a week bouncing between the monthly block. The longer it does, the more confident I am it will break up. Alternatively, pretty soon it will crash through to test 3.6. I'd say if BTC survives till after next weekend, we're on for a bumpy ride to 7.5 (see linked idea)
A close above the 2 hour 4793 will mean a push up to the next range at 5830. A close below will mean we are likely to test new lows. Based on weekly blocks drawn in September 17, the next level is 3663. But we are at the base of the monthly breaker block painted also in September last year.
The key TA question is: Will price levels being drawn now respect blocks painted in September 17 on the weekly TF, or the monthly TF. Common sense suggests the monthly, so I'm long with bids placed at 4300. I'll add more each time we get close to 4.3, and I'll close them if the 2 hour closes below 4323. NB, the scary part will be the odd dip to 4.3, 4.2 or even 4.1. Hold on tight and only exit if they fail to bounce and close on the 2 hour lower than 4323.
Weekly block significance:
Key fib levels drawn on the weekly block:
- 1: 4603
- 0.618: 4244
- 0.382: 4022
- 0: 3663
- Pro weekly: Notice BTC just about touched the fib level 0.382. Bitstamp wicked to 4042, just 20 dollars off 4022.
Con weekly: There is no range between fib levels drawn on the weekly being respected right now.
Monthly block significance:
Key fib levels drawn on the monthly block:
- 1: 4734
- 0.618: 4244
- 0.382: 4482
- 0: 4326
- Pro monthly: It appears we are in a channel drawn on the 2 hour TF
- Con monthly: It did not predict the point at which the bottom wick hit
What's going on with the daily:
- Pro daily: The daily appears to agree with my 2 hour channel with prices between the 0 and 0.382 levels of 4352 and 4810.
- Con daily: I don't like the look of the blocks, not looking like BTC is behaving on a daily timescale right now. However keep on eye on the untidy breaker drawn at 5537, might come in to play once BTC breaks up past 4793. (tradingview.com/x/Hym9mJgX/)
What to look for next:
Range confirmation. Does BTC spend a week bouncing between the monthly block. The longer it does, the more confident I am it will break up. Alternatively, pretty soon it will crash through to test 3.6. I'd say if BTC survives till after next weekend, we're on for a bumpy ride to 7.5 (see linked idea)
Note
The breakout was down, so I'm watching at the weekly block fibs for key levels. Long is stopped, and expecting next leg down. Next key fib level is 3663. I expect wick to hit there, but next required steps will be a strong bounce back to current 4k levels. If not then the next levels to consider are between 1917 and 2967.
Note
Just to add some uncertainty:Higher low posted last night
Monthly block is not insignificant until current month block is closed
Safest route is to wait for end of month and see if close is below 4326. Aggressive option is to keep a long open
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