BTC outlook restructure
Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1:
The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low.
2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies.
3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 - see BTC VS yields for this information.
Where is price taking Bitcoin now?
Well price has successfully retraced to the 8 hour chart imbalance. with potential to break this and ideally test the
daily zone or weekly zone where the imbalances are in place - the volatility will be high of course as price falls sharply but if the imbalances are hit, then patience is now the key frame for further buys. The zone is between $40,000 and $42,000 subject to long probability bias.
Bitcoin weekly imbalances
Weekly Fibonacci perspective
Bitcoin has successfully retraced to the 50% zone and rejected, however, be aware the 61.8% zone remains intact, price can still fall to the weekly imbalance before looking for a shift of buyers to sellers.
8 Hour imbalances
Past analysis:
This was based off the Fibonacci - keep in mind the zones here aligned with the 0.5% retracement.
January 15th analysis:
Comparing BTC vs ETH
While the recent sell off from the imbalance, both Ethereum and Bitcoin have experienced the all time highs to retrace back to the 0.5% Fibonacci. Price has to fall after a steep rise in performance over the coming months.
US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies.
BTC vs yields only
Bitcoin cycle
Examples of bitcoin back in 2015:
Further analysis;
Delving into the consolidation in the past, market participants are looking at the consolidation when Bitcoin was introduced - it took 106bars on the weekly timeframe to reach $1,000 price.
This consolidation area, has shown us the volatility yes, however it has provided further information as to how the price is behaving upon weekly imbalances and how the cycle is showing it's fractal patterns as time brings us to now, and the future.
See here for the imbalance occurring back in 2015.
Do you enjoy the setups?
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1:
The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low.
2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies.
3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 - see BTC VS yields for this information.
Where is price taking Bitcoin now?
Well price has successfully retraced to the 8 hour chart imbalance. with potential to break this and ideally test the
daily zone or weekly zone where the imbalances are in place - the volatility will be high of course as price falls sharply but if the imbalances are hit, then patience is now the key frame for further buys. The zone is between $40,000 and $42,000 subject to long probability bias.
Bitcoin weekly imbalances
Weekly Fibonacci perspective
Bitcoin has successfully retraced to the 50% zone and rejected, however, be aware the 61.8% zone remains intact, price can still fall to the weekly imbalance before looking for a shift of buyers to sellers.
8 Hour imbalances
Past analysis:
This was based off the Fibonacci - keep in mind the zones here aligned with the 0.5% retracement.
January 15th analysis:
Comparing BTC vs ETH
While the recent sell off from the imbalance, both Ethereum and Bitcoin have experienced the all time highs to retrace back to the 0.5% Fibonacci. Price has to fall after a steep rise in performance over the coming months.
US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies.
BTC vs yields only
Bitcoin cycle
Examples of bitcoin back in 2015:
Further analysis;
Delving into the consolidation in the past, market participants are looking at the consolidation when Bitcoin was introduced - it took 106bars on the weekly timeframe to reach $1,000 price.
This consolidation area, has shown us the volatility yes, however it has provided further information as to how the price is behaving upon weekly imbalances and how the cycle is showing it's fractal patterns as time brings us to now, and the future.
See here for the imbalance occurring back in 2015.
Do you enjoy the setups?
- 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets
- Focus on technical output not fundamentals
- Position and swing trades
- Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.