BTCUSD H1 chart (7/23/2020)
Updated
Good morning, traders. For now, I am still seeing this as a bounce before a stronger push down. As I've pointed out via CQ.Live the past few days, we've seen an influx of Bitcoin into the exchanges and, of this influx, the spot exchanges are receiving markedly more than the derivatives exchanges. This influx of Bitcoin into the exchanges most often is a sign of traders preparing to sell. So, effectively, we get the pump with these individuals/entities able to sell into it and then they continue selling afterward which sends price reversing lower than where it started. The pump causes retail traders to get euphoric and join in, making the selling of large quantities of asset much easier.
We can see the H1 RSI bearish divergence which has been playing out. Stoch RSI is finally back in oversold as price is finding support on the 15m pivot and hovering around the H1 R2 pivot, while remaining just above the daily pivot. As pointed out yesterday, the pump confirmed the ascending channel as price topped out at the supply structure EQ. In contrast to the H1, the H4 RSI is hovering around overbought as is Stoch RSI. Daily RSI remains just above neutral at 58.68 while Stoch RSI is nearly topped out in overbought. So, the general condition is overbought or nearly there, while the short term TFs suggest a possible slightly higher high before a full reversal takes effect.
So that means I am watching for signs of a reversal to finish off this bounce and then I am expecting to see a lot of supply enter the market and send price back down. We may see price target the daily pivot before showing signs of a reversal higher but traders shouldn't get impatient. The previous two pushes up, marked by red boxes on the chart, both took about 31 hours of sideways movement before the next move up. If we see the same thing here, then we wouldn't see price make its final push until around midnight, tonight, Central Standard Time. That would be about 15-16 hours from now. There is no guarantee it would take that long, though, just an observation of the time required in the previous two short term pumps.
If it pumps a final time and exits above the ascending channel resistance, then I will be looking at a possible throw over printing with a target of the next supply structure EQ of 9755 and continued advance would then bring in the 70.5% retracement level of 9940. If this is just a bounce before further downside, then I don't generally expect the latter target, but it could confirm a wave 2. All this said, because price terminated at the channel resistance, confirming that channel with four alternating touches, it is possible that we have seen the high. So traders need to be cautious and not in a rush to enter because they're scared of missing out. They should be looking for confirmations to enter, whether it be to open a long or a short. If price declines and closes below the daily pivot, especially if it does so impulsively, I would lean much more heavily to the top being in and a reversal taking place. Further decline below the nearest ascending orange support, followed by the ascending channel EQ, and then the lower ascending orange support should increase confidence of a reversal taking place with the decline through each support.
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Bottom line:
- The top may be in, but further advance targets would be the ascending channel resistance, supply structure EQ of 9755, and 70.5% retracement level of 9940.
- A decline through the daily pivot and nearby ascending orange support brings up targets of the ascending channel EQ, lower ascending orange support, and ascending channel support.
- A decline through the lower ascending orange support line should have price targeting the daily S1 pivot at ~8540.
- The HVN at 5200-5400 is the overall support level, so a decline below that should have traders cautious about continued upside.
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Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
We can see the H1 RSI bearish divergence which has been playing out. Stoch RSI is finally back in oversold as price is finding support on the 15m pivot and hovering around the H1 R2 pivot, while remaining just above the daily pivot. As pointed out yesterday, the pump confirmed the ascending channel as price topped out at the supply structure EQ. In contrast to the H1, the H4 RSI is hovering around overbought as is Stoch RSI. Daily RSI remains just above neutral at 58.68 while Stoch RSI is nearly topped out in overbought. So, the general condition is overbought or nearly there, while the short term TFs suggest a possible slightly higher high before a full reversal takes effect.
So that means I am watching for signs of a reversal to finish off this bounce and then I am expecting to see a lot of supply enter the market and send price back down. We may see price target the daily pivot before showing signs of a reversal higher but traders shouldn't get impatient. The previous two pushes up, marked by red boxes on the chart, both took about 31 hours of sideways movement before the next move up. If we see the same thing here, then we wouldn't see price make its final push until around midnight, tonight, Central Standard Time. That would be about 15-16 hours from now. There is no guarantee it would take that long, though, just an observation of the time required in the previous two short term pumps.
If it pumps a final time and exits above the ascending channel resistance, then I will be looking at a possible throw over printing with a target of the next supply structure EQ of 9755 and continued advance would then bring in the 70.5% retracement level of 9940. If this is just a bounce before further downside, then I don't generally expect the latter target, but it could confirm a wave 2. All this said, because price terminated at the channel resistance, confirming that channel with four alternating touches, it is possible that we have seen the high. So traders need to be cautious and not in a rush to enter because they're scared of missing out. They should be looking for confirmations to enter, whether it be to open a long or a short. If price declines and closes below the daily pivot, especially if it does so impulsively, I would lean much more heavily to the top being in and a reversal taking place. Further decline below the nearest ascending orange support, followed by the ascending channel EQ, and then the lower ascending orange support should increase confidence of a reversal taking place with the decline through each support.
___________________________________
Bottom line:
- The top may be in, but further advance targets would be the ascending channel resistance, supply structure EQ of 9755, and 70.5% retracement level of 9940.
- A decline through the daily pivot and nearby ascending orange support brings up targets of the ascending channel EQ, lower ascending orange support, and ascending channel support.
- A decline through the lower ascending orange support line should have price targeting the daily S1 pivot at ~8540.
- The HVN at 5200-5400 is the overall support level, so a decline below that should have traders cautious about continued upside.
___________________________________
Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
Note
I didn't mean to post this publicly. It's the morning BMA update for our members. So, if you have come across it but are not a member yet, consider it a fortunate mistake on my part. TWC's 300+ members would love to have you join us though!
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