Bitcoin - How to Identify a Bubble Before it Pops
Updated
Bitcoin' in my opinion is holding its own. Clearly the trend is still positive and bottom line folks, why bet against a prevailing trend? Clearly every stock, commodity and equity in general pulls back after a run, and though we expected a broader pullback in September, that never materialized and we had to revise our wave count. I look at the double top and say could we have topped and completed wave v and 5? Sure, but bitcoin does not seem to like double tops and though this could be the exception, for the long term I will not bet against the prevailing trend. But to be clear we could get a pullback here to the 10-12k range, but with so many people sitting on the sidelines waiting for a pullback I think we would be lucky if it does pullback we get to 14k before buyers flood in. But let's look at the facts.
1) In many of the previous pullbacks alt coins surged. Well we are currently seeing a surge in alt coins but Bitcoin' has NOT pulled back
2) The RSI has definitely remained in the highly bullish zone and as new money flows in I think the trading range is between 60 and 90.
3) The trend is UP and quite frankly, betting against the trend is like standing in front of a locomotive yelling stop.
4) Wall Street has finally entered the space and this has changed the game as new money flows into the space.
5) The overall market cap is going up. Again new money coming in and this is clearly bullish.
So am I adding here? As my alt coins continue higher I am shaving off profits and rotating to Bitcoin. This has been a good strategy and if something works why mess with it. However, I am not adding any new money here. If we do get a pullback to the 12-14k range I will add fresh money.
Many new to trading are in and out WAY too often. Buy this, sell, buy this, sell wait this is hot over here, crap, bought at the wrong time. Bottom line timing markets is only done properly by liars! However, if you are up 100-200% in a coin, heck yeah I'm shaving off some! The Litecoin' 700%+ run. That was a no brainer! Understand the difference!
So with all the talk on CNBC etc, of so called "experts" who still think bitcoin' has an unlimited supply of coins (unlike the central banks who can not print more bills), it is only used for criminal activity (unlike $100 bills which are never used that way), lend their "expert" opinion (yet state they do not understand how bitcoin works) and end the interview calling for the largest bubble in the history of the world, I have provided my insight to how to spot the end of the bubble.
1) When 75% of "experts" are calling for a bubble, we are NOT at the end of a bubble. Bubbles pop when 90% of analysts are bullish.
2) When fresh money is pouring into a market faster than orders can be filled, we are NOT in a bubble. Maybe the start of one, but not the end. Quite frankly 800 billion is the size of Apple. When Bitcoin is the size of Apple ok maybe I take my profits and head to the door, but we are NOT there yet.
3) When the Uber driver is asking you HOW to buy bitcoin, we are NOT about to Pop. We are at the end of a bubble when the Uber driver is telling you how much he made buying Marscoin.
4) When you tell people about bitcoin, and they are like, "hmmmmm isn't that a scam. We are NOT at the end of a bubble.
In 2000, every person at my office owned AOL' and day after day I heard how much money they were making in the market! In 2007 the gas station owner quite his 30 year business to flip homes. These are the signs of the end of a bubble! I could be wrong, but I just do not see it.
Folks we have not even introduced ETF's yet. We have only one coin on the futures exchange. This market is in it's infancy as far as I'm concerned, and though there will be bumps along the way, (and most likely at the hands of a bankrupt exchange), we are far from the end of a bubble in my opinion. However, hanky panky going on with one or all of the exchanges could lead to a collapse and that is my only worry.
1) In many of the previous pullbacks alt coins surged. Well we are currently seeing a surge in alt coins but Bitcoin' has NOT pulled back
2) The RSI has definitely remained in the highly bullish zone and as new money flows in I think the trading range is between 60 and 90.
3) The trend is UP and quite frankly, betting against the trend is like standing in front of a locomotive yelling stop.
4) Wall Street has finally entered the space and this has changed the game as new money flows into the space.
5) The overall market cap is going up. Again new money coming in and this is clearly bullish.
So am I adding here? As my alt coins continue higher I am shaving off profits and rotating to Bitcoin. This has been a good strategy and if something works why mess with it. However, I am not adding any new money here. If we do get a pullback to the 12-14k range I will add fresh money.
Many new to trading are in and out WAY too often. Buy this, sell, buy this, sell wait this is hot over here, crap, bought at the wrong time. Bottom line timing markets is only done properly by liars! However, if you are up 100-200% in a coin, heck yeah I'm shaving off some! The Litecoin' 700%+ run. That was a no brainer! Understand the difference!
So with all the talk on CNBC etc, of so called "experts" who still think bitcoin' has an unlimited supply of coins (unlike the central banks who can not print more bills), it is only used for criminal activity (unlike $100 bills which are never used that way), lend their "expert" opinion (yet state they do not understand how bitcoin works) and end the interview calling for the largest bubble in the history of the world, I have provided my insight to how to spot the end of the bubble.
1) When 75% of "experts" are calling for a bubble, we are NOT at the end of a bubble. Bubbles pop when 90% of analysts are bullish.
2) When fresh money is pouring into a market faster than orders can be filled, we are NOT in a bubble. Maybe the start of one, but not the end. Quite frankly 800 billion is the size of Apple. When Bitcoin is the size of Apple ok maybe I take my profits and head to the door, but we are NOT there yet.
3) When the Uber driver is asking you HOW to buy bitcoin, we are NOT about to Pop. We are at the end of a bubble when the Uber driver is telling you how much he made buying Marscoin.
4) When you tell people about bitcoin, and they are like, "hmmmmm isn't that a scam. We are NOT at the end of a bubble.
In 2000, every person at my office owned AOL' and day after day I heard how much money they were making in the market! In 2007 the gas station owner quite his 30 year business to flip homes. These are the signs of the end of a bubble! I could be wrong, but I just do not see it.
Folks we have not even introduced ETF's yet. We have only one coin on the futures exchange. This market is in it's infancy as far as I'm concerned, and though there will be bumps along the way, (and most likely at the hands of a bankrupt exchange), we are far from the end of a bubble in my opinion. However, hanky panky going on with one or all of the exchanges could lead to a collapse and that is my only worry.
Note
I know it's early and volume is low but the March futures contract is in backwardation! I would buy the march contract if I was setup to buy it. I wish I could chart! cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures
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