BTC - The two most likely scenarios.
Updated
Good morning traders,
My last chart i brought you I was looking for one more down or range trading, well, I shouldn't have closed that because it looks like we're in the same situation. You will have to move the chart to the left to see the area's I'm discussing.
Let's breakdown what I'm looking at here:
Yellow Boxed Area - The 20 day MA almost crossed but did not, we had a spring bounce off the 200 EMA, had one doji reversal below 100 EMA, then reversed upwards. Daily RSI Lowest leading up to this rundown was 24.16.
Purple Boxed Area highlights areas of 20-50 Day EMA crossings. Which we'll get into below
Touched and bounced off 200 EMA:
3-25-17 // Daily RSI Lowest 30.15
08-03-16 // Daily RSI Lowest 17.29
Pierced 200 EMA briefly and bounced:
08-02-15
4-15-17
Didn't touch before re-bouncing:
1-25-16 // Daily Lowest RSI 17.29
Hasn't traded below the EMA 20 for multiple days since:
08-18-15 - 10-13-15
EMA Crossings:
EMA 20 under EMA 50 1-25-16 - Doji Reversal that day 10.72% retracement and took 25 days to re-cross. Did not make it to the 200 EMA.
EMA 20 under EMA 50 08-3-16 - Large sell off 13% retracement and took 38 days to re-cross. Bounced off 200 EMA.
EMA 20 under EMA 50 03-25-17 - Doji Reversal day after before uptrend. 6.83% downtrend. Took only 5 days to re-cross. - Bounced off 200 EMA.
Analyzing RSI:
In Each instance the lowest daily RSI was achieved before the actual crossing. Indicators lag, so those down thrusts resulted in the crossings, this implies the most intense sell off is finished.
Analyzing the EMA's:
When it touched the 200 EMA, before uptrends continue, it re-established itself above the 100 EMA on all occasions. We are currently above the 100 EMA - however we have not touched the 200 EMA.
Higher lows:
In addition to the doji reversal forming, we're beginning to see higher lows on the daily. A sign of a reversal coming
Breaking it all down:
Good news. Today should be the day that decides where we go. The EMA 200 has consistently acted as support previously, and there is nothing to believe it won't continue to do so.
With that in mind, I am confident we've found a bottom at the $8456-$9100 zone.
I anticipate this will playout in two ways.
Scenario 1) If we manage to successfully trade above the 100 EMA today, we should continue to see range trading in the $10,947-$12,428 range for today, and buy volume would need to come in today and tomorrow to have the 20 EMA crossing rejected. I would anticipate this would then signal a new bull run. Observe $12,496 zone.
Scenario 2) If we pierce the 20 EMA to 50 EMA on the daily, I would anticipate a re-test of the $8456 zone (indicators lag, so it'll happen before we know), we could go possibly lower, but these would just be pierces, and I doubt they'll be established as a trading zone. The next test would be to then get back above the 100 EMA, and range trade above it for an non calculable amount of time.
Buy zones:
$12,496 with large volume influx for scenario 1
$8456-9100 for scenario 2
I've currently set my buys in the scenario 2 zone, and if I see scenario 1 playout, I'll adjust.
If you find my information helpful, please return the favor and hit the like and follow button, it's very encouraging and keeps me motivated!
My last chart i brought you I was looking for one more down or range trading, well, I shouldn't have closed that because it looks like we're in the same situation. You will have to move the chart to the left to see the area's I'm discussing.
Let's breakdown what I'm looking at here:
Yellow Boxed Area - The 20 day MA almost crossed but did not, we had a spring bounce off the 200 EMA, had one doji reversal below 100 EMA, then reversed upwards. Daily RSI Lowest leading up to this rundown was 24.16.
Purple Boxed Area highlights areas of 20-50 Day EMA crossings. Which we'll get into below
Touched and bounced off 200 EMA:
3-25-17 // Daily RSI Lowest 30.15
08-03-16 // Daily RSI Lowest 17.29
Pierced 200 EMA briefly and bounced:
08-02-15
4-15-17
Didn't touch before re-bouncing:
1-25-16 // Daily Lowest RSI 17.29
Hasn't traded below the EMA 20 for multiple days since:
08-18-15 - 10-13-15
EMA Crossings:
EMA 20 under EMA 50 1-25-16 - Doji Reversal that day 10.72% retracement and took 25 days to re-cross. Did not make it to the 200 EMA.
EMA 20 under EMA 50 08-3-16 - Large sell off 13% retracement and took 38 days to re-cross. Bounced off 200 EMA.
EMA 20 under EMA 50 03-25-17 - Doji Reversal day after before uptrend. 6.83% downtrend. Took only 5 days to re-cross. - Bounced off 200 EMA.
Analyzing RSI:
In Each instance the lowest daily RSI was achieved before the actual crossing. Indicators lag, so those down thrusts resulted in the crossings, this implies the most intense sell off is finished.
Analyzing the EMA's:
When it touched the 200 EMA, before uptrends continue, it re-established itself above the 100 EMA on all occasions. We are currently above the 100 EMA - however we have not touched the 200 EMA.
Higher lows:
In addition to the doji reversal forming, we're beginning to see higher lows on the daily. A sign of a reversal coming
Breaking it all down:
Good news. Today should be the day that decides where we go. The EMA 200 has consistently acted as support previously, and there is nothing to believe it won't continue to do so.
With that in mind, I am confident we've found a bottom at the $8456-$9100 zone.
I anticipate this will playout in two ways.
Scenario 1) If we manage to successfully trade above the 100 EMA today, we should continue to see range trading in the $10,947-$12,428 range for today, and buy volume would need to come in today and tomorrow to have the 20 EMA crossing rejected. I would anticipate this would then signal a new bull run. Observe $12,496 zone.
Scenario 2) If we pierce the 20 EMA to 50 EMA on the daily, I would anticipate a re-test of the $8456 zone (indicators lag, so it'll happen before we know), we could go possibly lower, but these would just be pierces, and I doubt they'll be established as a trading zone. The next test would be to then get back above the 100 EMA, and range trade above it for an non calculable amount of time.
Buy zones:
$12,496 with large volume influx for scenario 1
$8456-9100 for scenario 2
I've currently set my buys in the scenario 2 zone, and if I see scenario 1 playout, I'll adjust.
If you find my information helpful, please return the favor and hit the like and follow button, it's very encouraging and keeps me motivated!
Note
Ignore the Hasn't traded below the EMA 20 for multiple days since: section, it was something I was going to expand upon but never bothered.Additionally, after re-reading my own post, please make sure you understand that when I say observe the $12,496 zone, I mean it in the sense that we must breakout from there, with FORCE, and get much higher for the crossing to be rejected.
If that doesn't happen, it's already a foregone conclusion they'll cross and we should see another low.
Note
Was awoken to some alerts,We're right at that battlezone area I was speaking about earlier. I'm not seeing the volume I'd like to see, and have not bought in. We're already seeing lower buy volume, so if the bulls want to start a run we need to see some increase. Please view the picture and the yellow area to see the sort of buy volume I'm looking for, this is what I'd be looking for in a buy signal at this zone.
Trade safe, and I'm back to bed!
Note
Good morning traders,As I mentioned yesterday I pointed out the two most likely scenarios to watch for, so far those have been 100% accurate. We're currently witnessing a possible bull flag being formed, with a target of around $13,600 if it breaks. Now I want to stress the importance of this, if this breaks upwards, this would then put us up above the 50 MA on the daily, and if we can keep trading above that, we should see a touch of the 20 EMA to the 50 EMA -- but no crossing.
If this happens, we can expect another bull run to begin (view the yellow area of the original chart to see what happened last time this played out).
With this in mind, I am focusing on the following areas.
1) We're currently oversold, and I'm expecting to see a sell off, we would want to observe the 20 EMA on the hourly as a potential support @ $12,442.
2) If the flag formation is valid, we could also see a bounce off $12,315 - in this case, this would be the most optimal buy entry.
If this flag fails to breakout, then we're in the same situation we were in, and should expect to see a breakdown over today and tomorrow back towards the 200 EMA.
Key Notes:
Observe the neutral volume. We're currently in another period of extended neutral volume, I am leaning towards a break upwards at this point towards the $13,600 range.
I will be observing the two support zones I've highlighted above, and if they manage to catch on this next sell off, I will be entering long for the ride up to $13,600.
If we can maintain above the 50 EMA on the daily, we should then see the beginning of a new bull run towards ATH.
As always if you find this information useful, please support me by hitting the like and follow button.
Good luck all and trade safe!
Note
I bought on the break, but have also exited since, we're seeing volume die down very quickly. Observe the breakout zone of $12,572, if it breaks below then it was a failed breakout and I would anticipate a sell off.Note
Casting live @ twitch.tv/cryptocrew discussing the situation as it unfolds.Note
Still not in any trade, just observe for high volume breakouts @ 13k and below $12,572, can go either way. It's just trading sideways, when theres something to update I'll try to update, but if I can't, just trade safe and buy smart breakouts!Obligatory - not financial advice, do your own research, etc, I might not be able to update this so be careful.
Note
I'm expecting a breakdown towards the $12,000 zone over the next hour or two, depending on support there will determine further downward movement or more sideways trading.Key notes:
Double doji reversals on hourly, one on the 4 hour.
Anemic volume
Failed breakout from bull flag
If the supports don't catch expect a much broader sell off.
As always, trade carefully, and I would not recommend trading in this range right now.
If you find my information helpful, please return the favor and hit the like and follow button, it's very encouraging and keeps me motivated!
Twitter: twitter.com/Jedi_ant
Twitter: twitter.com/Jedi_ant
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