9/17 Expectation of two bases points cut increased to 65%.
Overview:
The
SP500 closed higher despite forming a red daily candle, signaling potential intraday weakness or selling pressure, but the broader trend remains positive since the overall price closed higher than the previous day. This pattern suggests buyers were active, but sellers took control after the market opened, creating a bearish candle even with upward movement. Similarly, the 
QQQ didn’t break previous highs but printed a similar candle.
While BlackRock and Grayscale stayed on the sidelines, all other major funds loaded up on
BTCUSD, pushing the day’s total to $186.8 million, 84% higher than the average BTC ETF volume of $102.3 million. Ethereum ( 
ETHUSD) continues to struggle, with Grayscale selling ETH even on today’s green market day.
Retail sales rose again, showing that the U.S. economy remains on solid ground, keeping recession fears at bay. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the number of traders expecting a 0.50% rate cut has risen to 65%, compared to 50% at the end of last week and just 10% in early August.
Technical Analysis:
W: Despite recent gains, BTC remains in bearish territory, trading below the BB MA. Price touched the 61.4k weekly level during the Asian session but retraced. A rate cut could be a positive event, keeping BTC in its current range without major sell-offs. Some altcoins may see 10-20% gains.
D: BTC held the 58.4k level and bounced, signaling possible growth after the rate cut.
4h: BTC briefly hit overbought RSI at the 61.4k resistance level but was rejected. MACD shows a bearish divergence, but this may be overshadowed by the upcoming rate cut.
1h: Overbought RSI is cooling off now.
Altcoins vs. BTC:
Another day of divergence among altcoins. BTC grew by 3.6%, while ETH followed with 2%. SOL printed a doji candle, but NEAR outperformed with a 6.4% gain, bouncing off its support. SUI and TAO saw strong gains of 12.2%.
Bull Case:
The lack of a large sell-off by whales suggests confidence heading into the rate cut. BTC has been climbing since September 6th, and if the rate cut injects liquidity into the markets, some of that money may flow into risky assets like crypto. A postponement of recession fears could also lead to higher interest rates for longer, but this means more disposable income available for speculative investments.
Bear Case:
Despite the rate cut, the economy is slowing down, and a 0.50% rate cut represents only a 10% decrease in the current rate.
Fear and Greed Index:
The index rose slightly to 37.91, reflecting cautious optimism ahead of the rate cut.
Prediction:
Short-term bullish for BTC, but expect range-bound movement or a drop in October.
The
SP500 closed higher despite forming a red daily candle, signaling potential intraday weakness or selling pressure, but the broader trend remains positive since the overall price closed higher than the previous day. This pattern suggests buyers were active, but sellers took control after the market opened, creating a bearish candle even with upward movement. Similarly, the QQQ didn’t break previous highs but printed a similar candle.While BlackRock and Grayscale stayed on the sidelines, all other major funds loaded up on
BTCUSD, pushing the day’s total to $186.8 million, 84% higher than the average BTC ETF volume of $102.3 million. Ethereum ( ETHUSD) continues to struggle, with Grayscale selling ETH even on today’s green market day.Retail sales rose again, showing that the U.S. economy remains on solid ground, keeping recession fears at bay. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the number of traders expecting a 0.50% rate cut has risen to 65%, compared to 50% at the end of last week and just 10% in early August.
Technical Analysis:
W: Despite recent gains, BTC remains in bearish territory, trading below the BB MA. Price touched the 61.4k weekly level during the Asian session but retraced. A rate cut could be a positive event, keeping BTC in its current range without major sell-offs. Some altcoins may see 10-20% gains.
D: BTC held the 58.4k level and bounced, signaling possible growth after the rate cut.
4h: BTC briefly hit overbought RSI at the 61.4k resistance level but was rejected. MACD shows a bearish divergence, but this may be overshadowed by the upcoming rate cut.
1h: Overbought RSI is cooling off now.
Altcoins vs. BTC:
Another day of divergence among altcoins. BTC grew by 3.6%, while ETH followed with 2%. SOL printed a doji candle, but NEAR outperformed with a 6.4% gain, bouncing off its support. SUI and TAO saw strong gains of 12.2%.
Bull Case:
The lack of a large sell-off by whales suggests confidence heading into the rate cut. BTC has been climbing since September 6th, and if the rate cut injects liquidity into the markets, some of that money may flow into risky assets like crypto. A postponement of recession fears could also lead to higher interest rates for longer, but this means more disposable income available for speculative investments.
Bear Case:
Despite the rate cut, the economy is slowing down, and a 0.50% rate cut represents only a 10% decrease in the current rate.
Fear and Greed Index:
The index rose slightly to 37.91, reflecting cautious optimism ahead of the rate cut.
Prediction:
Short-term bullish for BTC, but expect range-bound movement or a drop in October.
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