The whales played it out nicely once again. If you saw my update yesterday, I told you that the pump was manipulated and I believe it was a bull trap. I even showed you a bear flag before it became apparent. The whales was very smart to set up a break of the small bull flag , within the bear flag , just to trick you. I am sure many of you only saw the double bottom , and the break out of bull flag when, in fact, it was just a bear flag .
So, what is happening next? We might have a small pull back, and then continue to fall. If the bear flag does break out to the downside, the target is likely to be $6000. The sell off seems to be strong and I can't see much support between $6000-$8000. Plus, the bear flag also suggests $6000 is the next target. Of course, if there is a major good news that change the sentiment, then I would think otherwise.
One thing I do want to reinforce is that we have never break out of the downtrend channel . Many people got fooled and thought that the downtrend channel was broken. It never did! And in that regard, why would you think the pump yesterday was not a bull trap, especially after the FUDs on SEC, Binance hack & Mt Gox. Although some of you might say that the FUDs are just FUD, the Binance hack was not really a hack, Nobuaki can no longer sell his BTC .... It does not matter. What does matter is the confidence level has dropped significantly after the FUDs. Do you think the whales are going to use their money to pump BTC back up and even break up the downtrend channel?
I also want to mention, from a non TA perspective, that many of you jumped in the Crypto world in Dec because of the hype. Who do you think created the hype? The media or, the great whales? Regardless, many of you had no trading experience and was told that HODL is the best strategy. Do you think the whales are just going to let you HODL? No! They will try their best to take away your money from you. They will just keep making money by pumping and dumping at each support and resistance level, until you can no longer HODL. Some of you even put in more money at each dip thinking that it is a bargain sell.
What I am seeing is that unless fresh money comes in, BTC will just keep falling, and drag all the altcoins down. With the current Cryptos market, I just don't see any recovery happening in the next few months. In fact, if you draw a long term trend line , in log scale, since the beginning of 2015 and connect all the lows till 2017, you can see that the trend line intersects the bottom of the current downtrend channel @ around $3000. I am not saying that BTC will ever drop to that level, but there is a high possibility given the status quo of the current Cryptos market.
Taiwan Bear
So, what is happening next? We might have a small pull back, and then continue to fall. If the bear flag does break out to the downside, the target is likely to be $6000. The sell off seems to be strong and I can't see much support between $6000-$8000. Plus, the bear flag also suggests $6000 is the next target. Of course, if there is a major good news that change the sentiment, then I would think otherwise.
One thing I do want to reinforce is that we have never break out of the downtrend channel . Many people got fooled and thought that the downtrend channel was broken. It never did! And in that regard, why would you think the pump yesterday was not a bull trap, especially after the FUDs on SEC, Binance hack & Mt Gox. Although some of you might say that the FUDs are just FUD, the Binance hack was not really a hack, Nobuaki can no longer sell his BTC .... It does not matter. What does matter is the confidence level has dropped significantly after the FUDs. Do you think the whales are going to use their money to pump BTC back up and even break up the downtrend channel?
I also want to mention, from a non TA perspective, that many of you jumped in the Crypto world in Dec because of the hype. Who do you think created the hype? The media or, the great whales? Regardless, many of you had no trading experience and was told that HODL is the best strategy. Do you think the whales are just going to let you HODL? No! They will try their best to take away your money from you. They will just keep making money by pumping and dumping at each support and resistance level, until you can no longer HODL. Some of you even put in more money at each dip thinking that it is a bargain sell.
What I am seeing is that unless fresh money comes in, BTC will just keep falling, and drag all the altcoins down. With the current Cryptos market, I just don't see any recovery happening in the next few months. In fact, if you draw a long term trend line , in log scale, since the beginning of 2015 and connect all the lows till 2017, you can see that the trend line intersects the bottom of the current downtrend channel @ around $3000. I am not saying that BTC will ever drop to that level, but there is a high possibility given the status quo of the current Cryptos market.
Taiwan Bear
Note
Just a quick update on BTC. There is really not much happening at the moment. I think it all has to do with the Bitcoin futures expiring today. Right now, we have a small bear flag, within a large bear flag. And right above we have 50EMA, 200EMA, and then the 'true' downtrend line. With all the resistance above and all the indicators currently showing bearish, I would be much more worry if BTC does go up instead of going down as it is quite likely just another bull trap. And if that does happen, the sell off could be detrimental and certainly not healthy for the whole Crypto market. If you still insist on trading BTC with this level of volatility, then wait for the break out.
Note
Hi all, it seems like BTC is forming another bear flag. The bears might try their best to break above the top of the downtrend line (in linear scale, in blue), but I doubt they will succeed as the volume for the bulls have been mostly below MA20 since the 10th March.
Also, the retrace of the downtrend yesterday hit at around the 1.414 retrace @ 7741 and then now retrace back to almost 1.0 retrace @ $8360. This retrace is normal in a downtrend.
The fate of BTC will be determined within the next 12 hours. Please watch out for the breakout of the bear flag.
Note
Sorry, I said the "bears", instead of "bulls".Note
After all, the bear flag did breakout to the downside. Now, let's see at which level the 4hr candle will close. If you are shorting, I would recommend to take profit around $6950.Note
Dear followers,The drop is something I was expecting. I wouldn't be too worry. Indeed, I am not worried at all until it hits the red box in the graph below.
For XRP, I don't think it will close the 4 hr candle below $0.65598. ETC, $17.526. If it does, then I will be worried. Otherwise, just stay cool.
Note
Dear followers,Such a good thing to wake up to this rise. As I said way before many others, I DO think that the short term dip is over. It's certainly not guessing, I have several indicators and patterns which all indicate that the dip is over.
Right now I am waiting for the final confirmation in order to set up the fibonacci retracements. If you have seen my last post about XRP, you would have seen how important it is to set up the fibonacci reference points correctly.
If you saw this rise and FOMO, then I can tell you that a retracement to $8300 - $8600 is about to happen.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.