Long

What if we got it wrong?

Updated

What if this V dip is not the completion of the first hump, but an anomaly with a swift price pullback to structure and what is called the second hump is actually the continuation and completion of only the first hump. That would put us at the top of the third hump about to plant the second spike in an attempt to breach the 200MA on the daily and 8500-8600 price point.

Look at the weekly charts of alts that follow Bitcoin's movements (Ether, Ripple, Neo, Stellar). Only two humps with a long wick in the center of the first hump where the V occurs in Bitcoin. What if our view of seeing three humps on Bitcoin clouded our view when there were only two on all these cryptos? What does the backside of this last hump look like for bitcoin and the alts?

Note

Just a quick update as we await the weekend's candles.

The SEC news of the rejected ETF threw things a little off track with a deeper price dive, but the SEC Commissioner's tweet coming opposing the ruling seems to have pulled some of the losses out of the hole.

I feel that the SEC ruling may have pulled some air out of the sails, bBut I am still thinking bulls will want to test 8500-8600 again. So I am still looking for the second spike in hump three...if this idea holds up. After that, I guess we'll see.

If bulls break 8600 and manage to hold it, I expect a big rush of buy support that will continue to take us up and we all laugh at this idea. I will gladly wear the egg on my face with a smile as we all make more money. But be ready for a downturn if 8600 holds.

Trade wisely!

Note

While sell pressure is pretty high, bitcoin continues to make higher lows, which is encouraging. In addition, volume is getting very low. The climate is right for a push up, but we shall see.

Looking to break up or break down from about 8600.

Note

After a couple of small burst this weekend to keep us moving above minor bear trendlines, it looks as if the bull run may be out of believers.

At this time, I don't see that one last run to 8600 developing and expect Bitcoin to fall from here to the next level of support. We'll see what develops from there, but I believe in the above scenario and think we will start stairsteping to the next structural lower low to complete the third hump's backside, maybe a month's worth of drop-pullback with 3-4 waves. I don't know how low it will go, but based on my TA above, I am thinking we'll at least touch 5000 as it rounds a new bottom out and the next true bull run begins.

I have a few long positions still running from previous low positions and hope I am wrong. If you are long right now, watch your coins in the next couple of hours.

Trade safely!

Note

I worked on the accuracy of the wedge pattern lines. My original idea was a little loose drawn using the 1 day chart. This chart has the trend lines accurate down to the 2 hour chart. I show the 4 hour here so I could get the whole chart on the page. I will put the new chart out in a new post. But the new chart shows a good reason why the second spike never happened...and why we are just running sideways, and why moving any higher right now is not likely.

Note

<deleted>

Continuation of this idea.

Note

Sorry...updated URL for idea continuation.

andoverg

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