BTC (Y19.P2.E12).MACRO.Long.Entry.Hypothesis
Updated
What we have seen so far from many experts (not me) are from one extreme to another, even the possibility to going to 1500, anything is possible.
How does this help, it doesn't.
I feel one must envision a number of scenario's and what to look for, and if the criteria is not met, move to the next scenario you have envisioned and go through your check list.
In amongst it all, you will see opportunities to short, so it pays to plan and execute every day, constant review and if need be, tweak your plan\s.
Many if not most of the hypothesis on the MACRO level (speculations) are based on from a number of sources, such as (what I have learnt so far)
a) Fibonnaci levels
b) Moving aversage
c) Macro trend line \ channel
d) Support and resistance lines
and the list goes on all base on historical data with help from indicators such as RSI levels, volume profiles, etc
Hence I have put together this chart, one of many scenario's but for now, the leading one for me.
If I see other signs to support this or any other level, I will make my adjustments or move.
I will >
a) look for signs that look like accumulation (price structure) and\or a bottom pattern at significant points\levels as per a,b,c,d, above
b) look for bullish divergences on the daily chart using a no. of momentum indicators as each has weaknesses and strengths. Eg. RSI sometimes misses what MACD picks up and vise versa
c) look at candle stick patterns on the daily, 3 daily and weekly compare it to previous bottoms as the bottom will not be a quick movement, it will be a dragged out process as the whales accumulate large volume over extended time
d) look at BTC dominance chart on the 4 hrly and daily, to know when to flip to Alts and back to BTC (my long term holdings portfolio).
e) I will continue to short until I see accumulation to go long
I believe people like me, run scenario's and eventually one of them get the top and bottom of the Macro chart right. Why?
Anyone can forecast, but forecast based on experience increases the chances of likelihood to be.
Using indicators like the RSI, increases the chances because oversold conditions increase the likelihood, but you cannot know but speculate when or where on the chart it will coincide with.
Hence I'm stating that
> the 200 Weekly EMA or MA is a significant area. It might coincide with the 0.786 retracement
> it might still be in the downward channel
> it might for now, at the 0.618 to 0.65 retracement level range sideways to form either a accumulation pattern or bear\bull pattern
> the volume profiles coincide with the fib retracement levels
> the previous price level of BTC in 2015 and late 2018, the 200 EMA\MA acted as support
**If the price goes below 5K level, then I would expect the next level of support is the 0.886 retracement equating to the next support level. Which will be a significant setback for the crypto market but potentially a great opportunity for the long term.
1 of my previous chart going long, which can potentially be relevant for now
BROADER PICTURE:
How about factoring in the world markets when it comes to the Crypto market, meaning external markets and its impact to BTC.
I believe GOLD does a good job, where BTC lags behind it. If GOLD declines, I would expect BTC to do the same. Let me explain.
If one was to look at the same category for Bitcoin, storage of wealth such as Gold, Silver, and precious and industrial commodities, one might anticipate some moves.
If Stock markets are to go up due to low interest rates, etc which stimulates other markets then I would not expect money to leave that area and sink it into Crypto when there are safer and more reliable markets.
This has already happened and why I believe we are dropping.
Also those who have diversified portfolios and have deep pockets that have already allocated $$ to Crypto and Gold (example), have no incentive to add more right now.
Hence I don't see Crypto going up any time soon when adoption of BTC, etc of its use has not broadened, hence why the Total market cap and transaction volume per day is getting lower.
On-Chain Metrics references:
blockchain.com/charts > blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions)
The total value of all transaction outputs per day > blockchain.com/charts/output-volume
Bitcoin: ASOL which is another good indicator shows BTC movement from dorment wallets which correlates to big BTC price movements (of BTC of recent to exchanges) price drops > studio.glassnode.com/
** Other charts also available such as Bitcoin: Average Coin Dormancy, NVT Ratio\Signal, Transaction count, all showing bearish signs.
As the market matures and the whales come and make their moves to take your dollars, somewhere amongst it all, must be the organic BTC price\movement and that is hard to know and find.
Lets just hope this organic price is the price to maintain the BTC infrastructure and meets the mining costs and this equates to somewhere at the daily 200 ema\ma level.
Please give a thumbs up or a like if you agree or appreciate the chart and commentary.
Regards,
S.Sari /CryptoProspa
BTC Dominance \ Daily Chart
How does this help, it doesn't.
I feel one must envision a number of scenario's and what to look for, and if the criteria is not met, move to the next scenario you have envisioned and go through your check list.
In amongst it all, you will see opportunities to short, so it pays to plan and execute every day, constant review and if need be, tweak your plan\s.
Many if not most of the hypothesis on the MACRO level (speculations) are based on from a number of sources, such as (what I have learnt so far)
a) Fibonnaci levels
b) Moving aversage
c) Macro trend line \ channel
d) Support and resistance lines
and the list goes on all base on historical data with help from indicators such as RSI levels, volume profiles, etc
Hence I have put together this chart, one of many scenario's but for now, the leading one for me.
If I see other signs to support this or any other level, I will make my adjustments or move.
I will >
a) look for signs that look like accumulation (price structure) and\or a bottom pattern at significant points\levels as per a,b,c,d, above
b) look for bullish divergences on the daily chart using a no. of momentum indicators as each has weaknesses and strengths. Eg. RSI sometimes misses what MACD picks up and vise versa
c) look at candle stick patterns on the daily, 3 daily and weekly compare it to previous bottoms as the bottom will not be a quick movement, it will be a dragged out process as the whales accumulate large volume over extended time
d) look at BTC dominance chart on the 4 hrly and daily, to know when to flip to Alts and back to BTC (my long term holdings portfolio).
e) I will continue to short until I see accumulation to go long
I believe people like me, run scenario's and eventually one of them get the top and bottom of the Macro chart right. Why?
Anyone can forecast, but forecast based on experience increases the chances of likelihood to be.
Using indicators like the RSI, increases the chances because oversold conditions increase the likelihood, but you cannot know but speculate when or where on the chart it will coincide with.
Hence I'm stating that
> the 200 Weekly EMA or MA is a significant area. It might coincide with the 0.786 retracement
> it might still be in the downward channel
> it might for now, at the 0.618 to 0.65 retracement level range sideways to form either a accumulation pattern or bear\bull pattern
> the volume profiles coincide with the fib retracement levels
> the previous price level of BTC in 2015 and late 2018, the 200 EMA\MA acted as support
**If the price goes below 5K level, then I would expect the next level of support is the 0.886 retracement equating to the next support level. Which will be a significant setback for the crypto market but potentially a great opportunity for the long term.
1 of my previous chart going long, which can potentially be relevant for now
BROADER PICTURE:
How about factoring in the world markets when it comes to the Crypto market, meaning external markets and its impact to BTC.
I believe GOLD does a good job, where BTC lags behind it. If GOLD declines, I would expect BTC to do the same. Let me explain.
If one was to look at the same category for Bitcoin, storage of wealth such as Gold, Silver, and precious and industrial commodities, one might anticipate some moves.
If Stock markets are to go up due to low interest rates, etc which stimulates other markets then I would not expect money to leave that area and sink it into Crypto when there are safer and more reliable markets.
This has already happened and why I believe we are dropping.
Also those who have diversified portfolios and have deep pockets that have already allocated $$ to Crypto and Gold (example), have no incentive to add more right now.
Hence I don't see Crypto going up any time soon when adoption of BTC, etc of its use has not broadened, hence why the Total market cap and transaction volume per day is getting lower.
On-Chain Metrics references:
blockchain.com/charts > blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions)
The total value of all transaction outputs per day > blockchain.com/charts/output-volume
Bitcoin: ASOL which is another good indicator shows BTC movement from dorment wallets which correlates to big BTC price movements (of BTC of recent to exchanges) price drops > studio.glassnode.com/
** Other charts also available such as Bitcoin: Average Coin Dormancy, NVT Ratio\Signal, Transaction count, all showing bearish signs.
As the market matures and the whales come and make their moves to take your dollars, somewhere amongst it all, must be the organic BTC price\movement and that is hard to know and find.
Lets just hope this organic price is the price to maintain the BTC infrastructure and meets the mining costs and this equates to somewhere at the daily 200 ema\ma level.
Please give a thumbs up or a like if you agree or appreciate the chart and commentary.
Regards,
S.Sari /CryptoProspa
BTC Dominance \ Daily Chart
Note
Some support lines confirmed by the RENKO method. Hence why I feel high 5K to mid 6K is the bottom range.DAILY Chart
4 HRLY Chart
Note
As I stated initially, I expect a large formation to take place before it goes down further.
Discord: discord.com/invite/vb4hbP88vb (TradeToProspa)
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
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