Bitcoin is likely going lower.. but not just yet
Wyckoff distribution is so very painfully obvious.
I thoroughly enjoy when the big swingin 🍆's with giant piles of cash don't attempt to hide their tracks, because they don't think they need to..
and normally, they don't. Most countries cannot compete with trillions of dollars in capital that's also likely leveraged.
There's not a doubt in my mind that the primary driver of bitcoin to these prices is old fashioned naked short selling.
There is simply NOT ENOUGH BITCOIN for these sales to happen, but when you have enough cash -you're not worried about covering your shorts.
A topic for another day, but if you didn't get the "hint" in early 2018 when the newly initiated bitcoin joined the likes of paper Gold and Silver at the CME -the futures market not only drives spot price (of bitcoin ), but it damn near controls it.
However -there will come a point where supply runs out -especially if and when these sellers are caught with their pants down and unable to supply bitcoin for the buyers they're "selling" to.
An outcome that will likely only result in many losing the bitcoin they thought they had purchased, but unable to withdraw from the exchange -because the bitcoin does not exist.
This irresponsible tactic is illegal and has been since 2008, HOWEVER -it's not illegal on the open spot market for bitcoin .
We went over the possibility of a bullish RELIEF RALLY in my last post, and that’s most likely what we’re seeing here. PA has already pushed above some pretty critical resistance, but has done so with relatively LOW spot volume . (**low spot volume does NOT necessarily mean that the move is going to be rejected. Low volume + decreased supply (should) = higher prices).
Bitcoin is above the 34 WEMA, which is a pretty good sign for the bulls, however -it has not yet made it up to test the 21 WEMA and corresponding 40K resistance levels just yet. ((this is also critical resistance for a Wyckoff Distribution)).
BULLISH SCENARIO:
- Should BTC break across the 21WEMA and through 40K resistance, then I will become a bit more bullish in my sentiment.
- While a break above the 21 WEMA is definitely a great sign for the bulls, if they cannot push the price above the $52.255 price area, then we will likely see the price head back down towards 30K, possibly lower.
- A break above this price level would be EXTREMELY BULLISH , and bitcoin would likely break 70K very quickly.
BEARISH SCENARIO:
- A rejection at either of the two resistance areas mentioned (40K and 52.255K), then a move back down to re test lower levels is likely.
- There is a TON of confluence at the 22K price level (21.724K)
- There is also a bit of confluence...all the way down at 9.615K.
Right now it's just a bunch of observing. Waiting. Planning -looking for a "tell" one way or another.
A move ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 9.6K would be the greatest gift and should it fall down that far, we'll be ready.
ALSO -keeping a lot of my coiniage on exchanges at this point in time does give me a bit of anxiety, so positions are adjusted for risk -but still set up nicely should this thing resume its regularly scheduled bull run.
MEANWHILE -a BTC move up towards the
52K price area, followed by a rejection and move lower -would be INCREDIBLY bullish for ALT COINS, but we will see.
Traditional markets look RIPE for profit taking.
- TNX is falling sharply
- DXY is about to breakout
- SPX , DJI -all look like they're (finally) losing some steam.
I see the DXY getting anywhere from a 3 - 9% bounce, both of which would require a massive liquidity event.. and the only place I see that much cashish coming from are the old traditional stonks.
BTW... HAVE YOU SEEN THE GOLD SPOT CHART? on the WEEKLY or MONTHLY? HOLY MOLY -That's a MASSIVE cup and handle (i'll post a chart after I publish).
I think the signs are pretty clear, but I learned a LONG time ago to check my "confidence" at the door -but this one is staring us all right in the face.
Some days to note: June 21, June 25, and July 12.
June 21 and July 12th are astronomical.
June 25th is the QUARTERLY CME Settlement date.
It's gonna be a really neat month.
What are you all seeing? Are you bullish? bearish? Neutral? why? Intelligent thoughts and opinions welcomed!
CheeriHO
I thoroughly enjoy when the big swingin 🍆's with giant piles of cash don't attempt to hide their tracks, because they don't think they need to..
and normally, they don't. Most countries cannot compete with trillions of dollars in capital that's also likely leveraged.
There's not a doubt in my mind that the primary driver of bitcoin to these prices is old fashioned naked short selling.
There is simply NOT ENOUGH BITCOIN for these sales to happen, but when you have enough cash -you're not worried about covering your shorts.
A topic for another day, but if you didn't get the "hint" in early 2018 when the newly initiated bitcoin joined the likes of paper Gold and Silver at the CME -the futures market not only drives spot price (of bitcoin ), but it damn near controls it.
However -there will come a point where supply runs out -especially if and when these sellers are caught with their pants down and unable to supply bitcoin for the buyers they're "selling" to.
An outcome that will likely only result in many losing the bitcoin they thought they had purchased, but unable to withdraw from the exchange -because the bitcoin does not exist.
This irresponsible tactic is illegal and has been since 2008, HOWEVER -it's not illegal on the open spot market for bitcoin .
We went over the possibility of a bullish RELIEF RALLY in my last post, and that’s most likely what we’re seeing here. PA has already pushed above some pretty critical resistance, but has done so with relatively LOW spot volume . (**low spot volume does NOT necessarily mean that the move is going to be rejected. Low volume + decreased supply (should) = higher prices).
Bitcoin is above the 34 WEMA, which is a pretty good sign for the bulls, however -it has not yet made it up to test the 21 WEMA and corresponding 40K resistance levels just yet. ((this is also critical resistance for a Wyckoff Distribution)).
BULLISH SCENARIO:
- Should BTC break across the 21WEMA and through 40K resistance, then I will become a bit more bullish in my sentiment.
- While a break above the 21 WEMA is definitely a great sign for the bulls, if they cannot push the price above the $52.255 price area, then we will likely see the price head back down towards 30K, possibly lower.
- A break above this price level would be EXTREMELY BULLISH , and bitcoin would likely break 70K very quickly.
BEARISH SCENARIO:
- A rejection at either of the two resistance areas mentioned (40K and 52.255K), then a move back down to re test lower levels is likely.
- There is a TON of confluence at the 22K price level (21.724K)
- There is also a bit of confluence...all the way down at 9.615K.
Right now it's just a bunch of observing. Waiting. Planning -looking for a "tell" one way or another.
A move ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 9.6K would be the greatest gift and should it fall down that far, we'll be ready.
ALSO -keeping a lot of my coiniage on exchanges at this point in time does give me a bit of anxiety, so positions are adjusted for risk -but still set up nicely should this thing resume its regularly scheduled bull run.
MEANWHILE -a BTC move up towards the
52K price area, followed by a rejection and move lower -would be INCREDIBLY bullish for ALT COINS, but we will see.Traditional markets look RIPE for profit taking.
- TNX is falling sharply
- DXY is about to breakout
- SPX , DJI -all look like they're (finally) losing some steam.
I see the DXY getting anywhere from a 3 - 9% bounce, both of which would require a massive liquidity event.. and the only place I see that much cashish coming from are the old traditional stonks.
BTW... HAVE YOU SEEN THE GOLD SPOT CHART? on the WEEKLY or MONTHLY? HOLY MOLY -That's a MASSIVE cup and handle (i'll post a chart after I publish).
I think the signs are pretty clear, but I learned a LONG time ago to check my "confidence" at the door -but this one is staring us all right in the face.
Some days to note: June 21, June 25, and July 12.
June 21 and July 12th are astronomical.
June 25th is the QUARTERLY CME Settlement date.
It's gonna be a really neat month.
What are you all seeing? Are you bullish? bearish? Neutral? why? Intelligent thoughts and opinions welcomed!
CheeriHO
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