Short

Bitcoin. Scenario 2: very slow and very painful.

Updated

Changed my mind again. We were all wrong. It's worse.
Oh boy.
Hi, biggest FUD spreader and magical internet coin non believer here.
Someone one day had an idea "Hey remember all the problems we had 150 years ago and we don't need?
I had a great idea! Let's bring them back. What if I took several financial instruments and took the worse of each?
A coin that allows the rich to get richer, the poor to get poorer, pollutes the planet, has tons of issues, great idea right?"

So... looking at price action now (which is #1 most important thing I'd say RSI comes second then fibo actually then #4 is trendlines #5 is charting wedges etc then hmmm idk the rest can be ignored it's just bonus).

This doesn't look very good. We're following the same pattern with double top then back to normal, but it takes way longer, and we fall more & bounce less.
I don't guarentee BTC will stay above $1000 in the future.

BTC is looking weaker than 2014 and people are now all convinced it can't go down, they're too afraid to look stupid or something.
Looking at news from 2011 to 2016 they were full of "Bitcoin will fail" and now can't find a single one like this it's all "this is the future".
The public joined in massively, I can't stop hearing about crypto every where, I get harassed with ads no matter my ip & no matter
what device I'm on. And they think they're the early adopters rofl. Never has that many people been investing...

So all this dumb money is holding their virtual useless worthless "coins" like their life depends on it, I guess it's all the adopters from 2011 to early 2017 that are still in the green. Idk maybe at some point we can cascade down..? But could be a really long long while until that happens.

The bulls have one hope thought: if the baghodlers lose their mind since it's so slow and painful and kill themselves the price can't fall as much since they can't sell when they're dead. But it won't go up either.

Zooming in to compare the start of the bear market:

This isn't a call to trade (a trade that would last 2 years lmao), just my outlook on the not so bright future of Bitcoin.
Maybe we're lucky and alts just start living on their own. Idk thought...

I just wanted to bring back the Pantheon avatar and make moon calls but the delusional baggies won't let me :'(
I'm going to focus on other markets anyway if this takes years.

This is all going to end so badly...

Note

Saw this on twitter
"Funny thing is that after BTC pumps to 12k and you go all in with leverage and it proceeds to dump to 3k or even lower you are all going to be lying on cardboard boxes in the street holding a tin up so I won't even be able to shit talk you and tell you how right I was."
Made me lol :D

I'll get out as soon as I can and look at other stuff to trade.
Unless BTC does something else than go down veeery slowly.
Starting to be a real waste of time trading this.

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Couple hours of going up.
22 days of consolidating.
Crypto's amazing.
Cya in 5 years when BTC is dead for good.
Can still trade it but better leave only small money in and not waste too much time waiting.

Consolidated in a 4HR inside candle doing nothing again.
Greedy traders waiting for 500% gain because 10-40% isn't enough, baghodlers never let go of their magical virtual coin no one is interested in like an overboard pirate holding onto his gold ingot pulling him down the sea he'll drown with it.

Waiting on denial phase is the most boring thing ever.
Didn't think it'll take that long...
Greed and laziness dictates "If there's a 0.5% chance this goes up and 99.5% chance I'll lose all my money, I have to take the bull option as a certitude the risk of missing out is too great".

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People are so thick.
This is why it's going to take so long & they'll (almost) always be bounces we can prepare for:

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Saw many ignorant comments that "this isn't 2014".
They don't understand that every market cycle is the same all over again rofl.
I personally prefer comparing BTC to Nasdaq so might as well.
That way fanatics can think their magical virtual money is as big as the internet and they'll get rich doing nothing (they are totally oblivious that 90% of companies disappeared during the dot com crash including the top 1 Netscape).
100% they would have been invested in pets.com back then you just couldn't argue with pets.com investors "you're dumb people will always need pets" XD they lost all their money sher you deserved it (same struggler logic as housing bubble).
I am glad I can make fun of them now, where are they now? I can't hear youuuu.

Oh and after the nasdaq bottom:

rofl

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Enigma: If an exchange usage drops 75% but the trading volume stays roughly the same (well maybe 25-50% less at times) they are ___________?

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Mining Bitcoin not profitable if it's under 8600$?
Is this true? In the USA?
Damn wtf. Wonder if that's why it got pumped.
Does this mean this thing's dying if we stay too long under ~8k?
Or does the mining price depend on how many people use BTC?
Can they fix their obsolete crappy tech that doesn't scale?
I have no idea about all of this I just look at charts lol.

cnbc.com/2018/04/19/bitcoin-miners-are-losing-money-at-any-price-below-8600-morgan-stanley.html

It's news and it's CNBC so it's probably BS.
We might want to look into the details thought.
If miners don't make money off BTC their "love for the revolution" will very very quickly fade away and the damn thing is done!

Note

If you think I'm biased... In january I was making 30% almost every day... My trading account exploded... Sure wouldn't mind getting that again. But it's over. It was great, but reality is we can't get 30% runs on a daily basis forever.

twitter.com/Nice_Guy_Trader/status/988034923830370304

The % moves are still okay, not as huge but kinda allright, but lately we got alot of chopy price action, no trade opportunity. And since all crypto depends on BTC...:

Looking at the past, 2017 was almost always tradable with big % moves.
2016 had pretty dead periods, like this one:

If BTC goes dead, and alts don't lose correlation, well then it's going to be time to look elsewhere than crypto.

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Looking more and more like it's going towards that slow direction...

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I wonder what would happen if the hodlers that grew in number from 2011 to 2017 and are "millionaires in the green" decided to sell hmmm.
"Ok 17 billion have been put in total into Bitcoin and no worries we're still thousands of millionaires if Bitcoin goes to 3000$ I can always sell if Bitcoin mcap is at 150 billion this means all the millionaire hodlers can cash out guuuu I hit my head as a child".

Bitcoin is so magic people can put 17 billion in and get 170 billion out, that's how magical it is "buuut the portfolio app says I'm virtually rich".

Better be prepared to trade other markets... Unleeeesss...flippening?
Would personally prefer BTC to stay at least above $500 so there's still things to do.
If it goes to a magical bull run to 100k in 2018 (gl with that one) I'll make more money so I don't mind rofl.
But I didn't believe in santa & the tooth fairy as a child so why would I now?

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"This time it's different MtGox isn't involved".
I agreed... Until nooooow :)
===> ambcrypto.com/mt-gox-moves-16000-btc-bitcoin-bloodbath-to-continue-community-says-nothing-to-worry/
MOUNT GOX IS BACK GUYS.
MARK KARPALES HAS A NEW JOB HE SAID HE DOESNT BELIEVE IN BTC ANYMORE AND QUIT CRYPTO AND MTGOX JUST MOVED TENS OF THOUSANDS OF BTC.
cryptoground.com/mtgox-cold-wallet-monitor/

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Shameless saying he wants a recession where every one loses their shirt to make money out of it.
youtube.com/watch?v=uoJthzxpn7A

Good quote thought when he compares a bagholding economy that slowly goes down as a cancer. Better get rid of it fast.

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If we go down from here, target is still 4500.
Lots of reasons including these ones I didn't even post yet, on top of what I already noted:
* Convergence of several fibo levels!
* Daily & weekly consolidation zone, resistance and support
* Monthly level too

I don't even rmemeber every thing, I think there's some weekly ema there too...

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If BTC follows the gold path I'm out. taking my money out to focus on something else...

But I doubt that. Until now BTC looks so much like your usual market cycle and like 2014.

2/3 2/3 2/3 TWO THIRD. Everywhere. 0.618.
If we bounce off 5800 40% bounce since that's 2/3 of 60% ...
So 5800*1.4=8k

I'm now almost certain 2018 bear market will last longer than 2014 but I'd love to be wrong. If it all moves so slowly... maybe it's a good idea to get money out so it doesn't just sleep, and use it somewhere else, only come for major moves.

I don't even want to compare these years but I have to, so let's compare the bull trap in spring:

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I'm shorting if it goes up, otherwise close the little short I have on dip and long the bounce, and then I'm out, cya crypto you can HODL for 3 years while it slowly goes down.

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Ok the weak hands got shaken off but not the old skool fellas real HODLERS.

Let's shake more weak hands, all the way to 0. XD

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Good news every one!
Going to have to get out of the triangle soon.
I aim for June.

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The copy pasta continues...

MrRenev

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