BTCUSD Bitcoin Tread very Carefully this Weekend
Coinbase Update
Ripped through the lower parallel of the flag on Coinbase - now trapped in smaller parallels and finding scant support off the lower line - now an attempt for 9900-9917 line which was the last line of neartterm support here on Coinbase and 'limit-down' those with long memories back to last night may remember.
This is more dying of dis-interest than outright rejection - but it's not remotely tempting to buy right now. Likely to slide away and the bears that are out and sniffing blood won't be backing away until the upper parallel is broken and then held on the retest too. Too many failed breaks now to trust them, no? Just be damn careful all day if trading this mofo - for those watching it should be better than the football (Unless lucky enough to be a Spurs or City or even, God forbid, a Li
Friday, 22:29gmt Bitcoin Last Update, last night
So there are 3 ways out from here tonight and into 6 am gmt/01:00est usual reversal time...Up, down and sideways on super low volume/interest either way
Saturday Update 09:51gmt/04:51est
Tread Carefully Today
Another day and another way to 'play' Bitcoin is revealed. Last night we discussed the futures manipulation right on Wednesday night's close at 22:00gmt/17:00est -
today we can discuss what appears to be an increasingly popular way of accumulating longs at the expense of weaker bulls - the 6am/1am drive-by. Spray the crowd
with bullets and see who falls fastest. But the crowd is wising up to the ploy (at least we were, anyway) and if they have any sense, day traders are selling out and
going flat amd more and more are just reversing short around 5.45 ready for the 6am blood-bath. The walking dead - same old same old. Groundhog day - rinse
and repeat until it stops working.
Last night's tentative long call from 9900 low was Ok up to 10300-10400 where first profits were taken, but the second long on breaking above the neck-line on
Bitstamp feed never reached the target at 10666, making anovernight high at 10540 at 03.34 gmt before falling away due to lack of interest. Bitcoin then drifted for
a couple of hours until 06:00am gmt when the world and his wife decided to exit. The only thing that went right really was the big dump at 6am. At least we should
have been out, flat again or even short for the denouement/pants-down moment. Sometimes it's hard to discern if this is whales coming for the bait-ball, if we are
all architects of our own devising or, like the bait-ball we move in unison for protection and this has caused today's reversal at 6am. Whatever the cause, it's getting
more reliable than your old school bus.
So now, having scared the pants off some, Bitcoin is back in the buy zone and trying hard to stabilise. It's moving in a continuation pattern, effectively a large a
bearish flag, so far. But it has an upward bias and likely looks quite appealing to newer traders who see higher highs and lows as being bullish signals, after all that's
what we're taught when we start out isn't it? And so it is, to an extent - the extent of the upper rising parallel - so it looks OK to buy the dips back to the lower
smaller, rising parallels with stops under the same line and looking for a test of the upper parallel later on today to close out again.
Bitcoin shouldn't turn bearish again until the lowest rising parallel is broken on downside. At that point - whenever it arrives - the rally is done. Close out longs if it
happens sooner rather than later. We do not want to be trapped inside the bait-ball when the next pod of whales starts circling. We have to exit before they arrive.
Is this paranoia ? Maybe. But just cos we're a little paranoid doesn't mean that there isn't someone following us. There is a time to be paranoid and a time to be
gung-ho. Right now, for safety's sake, it's better to be the former. We can get over paranoia. Losing 20% is harder to bear. So this weekend we have to
tread carefully - more carefully than usual. Better safe than sorry.
Ripped through the lower parallel of the flag on Coinbase - now trapped in smaller parallels and finding scant support off the lower line - now an attempt for 9900-9917 line which was the last line of neartterm support here on Coinbase and 'limit-down' those with long memories back to last night may remember.
This is more dying of dis-interest than outright rejection - but it's not remotely tempting to buy right now. Likely to slide away and the bears that are out and sniffing blood won't be backing away until the upper parallel is broken and then held on the retest too. Too many failed breaks now to trust them, no? Just be damn careful all day if trading this mofo - for those watching it should be better than the football (Unless lucky enough to be a Spurs or City or even, God forbid, a Li
Friday, 22:29gmt Bitcoin Last Update, last night
So there are 3 ways out from here tonight and into 6 am gmt/01:00est usual reversal time...Up, down and sideways on super low volume/interest either way
Saturday Update 09:51gmt/04:51est
Tread Carefully Today
Another day and another way to 'play' Bitcoin is revealed. Last night we discussed the futures manipulation right on Wednesday night's close at 22:00gmt/17:00est -
today we can discuss what appears to be an increasingly popular way of accumulating longs at the expense of weaker bulls - the 6am/1am drive-by. Spray the crowd
with bullets and see who falls fastest. But the crowd is wising up to the ploy (at least we were, anyway) and if they have any sense, day traders are selling out and
going flat amd more and more are just reversing short around 5.45 ready for the 6am blood-bath. The walking dead - same old same old. Groundhog day - rinse
and repeat until it stops working.
Last night's tentative long call from 9900 low was Ok up to 10300-10400 where first profits were taken, but the second long on breaking above the neck-line on
Bitstamp feed never reached the target at 10666, making anovernight high at 10540 at 03.34 gmt before falling away due to lack of interest. Bitcoin then drifted for
a couple of hours until 06:00am gmt when the world and his wife decided to exit. The only thing that went right really was the big dump at 6am. At least we should
have been out, flat again or even short for the denouement/pants-down moment. Sometimes it's hard to discern if this is whales coming for the bait-ball, if we are
all architects of our own devising or, like the bait-ball we move in unison for protection and this has caused today's reversal at 6am. Whatever the cause, it's getting
more reliable than your old school bus.
So now, having scared the pants off some, Bitcoin is back in the buy zone and trying hard to stabilise. It's moving in a continuation pattern, effectively a large a
bearish flag, so far. But it has an upward bias and likely looks quite appealing to newer traders who see higher highs and lows as being bullish signals, after all that's
what we're taught when we start out isn't it? And so it is, to an extent - the extent of the upper rising parallel - so it looks OK to buy the dips back to the lower
smaller, rising parallels with stops under the same line and looking for a test of the upper parallel later on today to close out again.
Bitcoin shouldn't turn bearish again until the lowest rising parallel is broken on downside. At that point - whenever it arrives - the rally is done. Close out longs if it
happens sooner rather than later. We do not want to be trapped inside the bait-ball when the next pod of whales starts circling. We have to exit before they arrive.
Is this paranoia ? Maybe. But just cos we're a little paranoid doesn't mean that there isn't someone following us. There is a time to be paranoid and a time to be
gung-ho. Right now, for safety's sake, it's better to be the former. We can get over paranoia. Losing 20% is harder to bear. So this weekend we have to
tread carefully - more carefully than usual. Better safe than sorry.
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