We still didn't have a sizeable meaningful correction. The way I see it, we have 3 scenarios:
1) Bullish 12345 (blue count)
In this scenario we are in an extended wave 3 with target 9300 (261.8% of wave 1).
We will then correct to 8250 (38.2% retrecement) and continue up in wave 5
- to 9300 (100% of wave 1) to form a double top and bounce down, or
- to 10000 (161.8% of wave 4)
2) Bullish 12345 (green count)
In this scenario we are in a wave 3 with target 10900 (161.8% of wave 1) and we can go up to 12000 in wave 5.
This is possible assuming that we are in a larger ABC flat structure/trading range with 12000 top and 6000 bottom similar to the Bearish market of 2014
2) Bearish wedge and ABC (red/yellow count)
We are in a rising ending abcde wedge similar to the Wedge of Doom in previous wave (X).
We can go down any time in ABC correction to 6800 trend line support.
We may try to move a bit further up but will likely be shot down by the trend line since we have already attempted such moves in the past and each time were stopped by the trend resistance - see the chart.
It is difficult to pick one scenario because we don't have a clear starting point for a trend. It was deliberately hidden in the triangle, and now in a seemingly menacing wedge which can be a trap to lure more bears on the way up. All indicators seem to be supporting the up trend scenario. Keep an eye on the converging channel lines of the wedge. We can easily drop down just a bit and transform the channel into a proper up trend. A proper correction should clarify things.
Good Luck!
This is log. Zoom out using LMB on the price/time scales.
Please don't trade using my analysis only, always explore other opinions. This is not a financial advice, I can not be hold responsible for possible losses.
1) Bullish 12345 (blue count)
In this scenario we are in an extended wave 3 with target 9300 (261.8% of wave 1).
We will then correct to 8250 (38.2% retrecement) and continue up in wave 5
- to 9300 (100% of wave 1) to form a double top and bounce down, or
- to 10000 (161.8% of wave 4)
2) Bullish 12345 (green count)
In this scenario we are in a wave 3 with target 10900 (161.8% of wave 1) and we can go up to 12000 in wave 5.
This is possible assuming that we are in a larger ABC flat structure/trading range with 12000 top and 6000 bottom similar to the Bearish market of 2014
2) Bearish wedge and ABC (red/yellow count)
We are in a rising ending abcde wedge similar to the Wedge of Doom in previous wave (X).
We can go down any time in ABC correction to 6800 trend line support.
We may try to move a bit further up but will likely be shot down by the trend line since we have already attempted such moves in the past and each time were stopped by the trend resistance - see the chart.
It is difficult to pick one scenario because we don't have a clear starting point for a trend. It was deliberately hidden in the triangle, and now in a seemingly menacing wedge which can be a trap to lure more bears on the way up. All indicators seem to be supporting the up trend scenario. Keep an eye on the converging channel lines of the wedge. We can easily drop down just a bit and transform the channel into a proper up trend. A proper correction should clarify things.
Good Luck!
This is log. Zoom out using LMB on the price/time scales.
Please don't trade using my analysis only, always explore other opinions. This is not a financial advice, I can not be hold responsible for possible losses.
Note
This whole up trend/wedge looks very unnatural. There are at least 4 bullish counts and we can see wave 3 (i ii iii iv v) with 5 completed waves as the first wave (1) of a larger degree.I see more selling volume. Of course, bull hosts can extend the wave and drive the price up as much as they want but whatever's going to happen will happen before the 27th - expiration of CME futures. Do they want the price at 9000 or 10000? Or will they crash it to 6000 just before that day? We don't know.
Note
We have our correction - the price seems to be forming an ascending triangle with target 10300. This is not a wedge and never was. A triangle implies wave 2 or wave 4. We just finished wave (v) and there's no more room to extend it with. So, we could see it as wave 1 instead, the triangle as wave 2 and we will be having a wave 3 in a larger wave 3 (green count) going up with a large pump soon. This will eliminate and even liquidate more bears.Note: If the triangle transforms back into an ending wedge to confirm the ending impulse in wave (v) then we will be going down instead.
The wedge abcde
- should have 5-3-5-3-5 or 3-3-3-3-3 structure
- can't have a triangle as one of its waves
- should not have extended waves in it either (not sure about that)
- wave d does not cross the end of wave a which means that this is not necessarily a wedge
- huge wedges on large timeframes in terms of probability don't exists
The wedge is mimicking the previous Wedge of Doom of (X) to give an impression of an imminent and deadly fall into the abyss, but its structure is different and it will do just the opposite. They probably want to teach us an important lesson: things that look similar not always resolve the same way. Put your seatbelts on - we might revisit 10000 soon.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.