BitcoinUpdated Could the market recovery take another 11 months?
Looking a the past bear markets we can make an educated guess as to when this current bear market might end, when the accumulation phase will start and when we might see another recovery, (and maybe even a bull run in the far horizon).
Historically the same happened in the previous bear market, (not shown in the chart), but I will use the last 2 for illustration. The previous bear markets had less data, (less trading), but the same information holds)
2018-2019 Bear market
One of the first bear market with enough data, showed us that it lasted about 370 days, as well as a drop of 85% from the all time high, this was then followed by a short accumulation period and then 170 days to the next top.
The growth from the bottom to the next high was about 300%, it did not take us to a new ATH, but the market was a lot healthier and started moving sideway from then on until the next Bull run.
There was less uncertainty in the market, (investment was coming back in the market, less fud and so on).
2022-2023 Bear market
Using the same logic as the previous bear markets, we can go from the ATH and see that 370 days should take us to November 2022 and could see a candle or two as low as
12K, (using the 85% drop).
There would then be a short period of accumulation followed by 170 days of growth and a 300% jump from there.
That would take us to June 2023 and around
48K, then the market should be a lot more positive again.
Even if the bottom was reached now, or we do not go as low as12K, the macro economic factors do not show any kind of turnaround until the end of 2023
In summary
To be clear, the recovery will not see us to new ATH, but rather in a much more confortable, positive and healthy position, the next 'true' bull run should happen around the next halving in May 2024.
Historically the same happened in the previous bear market, (not shown in the chart), but I will use the last 2 for illustration. The previous bear markets had less data, (less trading), but the same information holds)
2018-2019 Bear market
One of the first bear market with enough data, showed us that it lasted about 370 days, as well as a drop of 85% from the all time high, this was then followed by a short accumulation period and then 170 days to the next top.
The growth from the bottom to the next high was about 300%, it did not take us to a new ATH, but the market was a lot healthier and started moving sideway from then on until the next Bull run.
There was less uncertainty in the market, (investment was coming back in the market, less fud and so on).
2022-2023 Bear market
Using the same logic as the previous bear markets, we can go from the ATH and see that 370 days should take us to November 2022 and could see a candle or two as low as
12K, (using the 85% drop).There would then be a short period of accumulation followed by 170 days of growth and a 300% jump from there.
That would take us to June 2023 and around
48K, then the market should be a lot more positive again.Even if the bottom was reached now, or we do not go as low as
12K, the macro economic factors do not show any kind of turnaround until the end of 2023In summary
- The bottom would be around 12K to 15K
- The market will be unpredictable until November 2022
- If we do not reach 15K then the market will keep moving sideway as traders will be expecting new lower lows.
- The recovery will be slow and take us to June 2023
- The next full bull run should be in 2024, another indication that a solid recovery should happen in the middle of 2023.
To be clear, the recovery will not see us to new ATH, but rather in a much more confortable, positive and healthy position, the next 'true' bull run should happen around the next halving in May 2024.
Note
After a brief recovery the price is #bitcoin keeps going down, the #cpi, (9.1%), is really keeping everything down at the moment, we can expect lower lows for the next 3 months at least.Note
We are still well on track for the end of November, I really expected the price to go lower still, maybe the sideway move will go from now until the end of March 2023Note
Once again, we are well on track to hit the lows at the end of november.I really think we are now in the middle of bear market.
The exact bottom is hard to tell, mathematically it could be $10000 but realistically it will probably be around $14000 ... time will tell.
After this we should very, very slowly be going up in 2023.
Note
We are still on track to start a recovery at the beginning of March.It is still concerning that we did not go lower than we are now so there is still a very good chance that we will go lower from here before going back up.
But looking at the graph, it looks like we are now in the consolidation phase before a recovery.
Note
I am starting to sound like a broken record, we are almost out of the woods, but not yet.While the prices look good we are still ranging between the two resistance and support level.
We will get out of this range, but not just yet.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.