BTCUSD long setup in the works.
Updated
In my previous post I outlined how BTCUSD is, as of this point in time, macro bullish.
There is a long setup in the works on the lower time frames that can be taken advantage of, either as a short term trade in itself, or as a potential entry into the macro bull trend.
The Setup :
On the 4-Hour time frame, Bitcoin is clearly consolidating after a bullish impulse.
Until proven otherwise, this is consolidation is clearly the corrective phase before next impulse up.
Supporting factors: Higher time frames are also bullish right now - see macro bullish idea linked to this idea.
Link to macro idea
Idea is invalidated if :
Price impulsively breaks below the immediate support (8.7k area on Bitstamp)
(Note the keyword here -> impulsively breaks the support. If it breaks the support correctively, that could indicate that the bullflag structure is just extending into a larger one)
Possible entries :
1- Riskier entry, with potentially greater reward : risk ratio - enter on a retest of the immediate support below, with stop just below the support level
2- Higher probability entry - enter on a confirmed impulsive break of the bullflag trendline
Note :
This trade, if it materializes, may provide a short term entry into the macro bullish idea, but as of now should be treated as a short term trade
If there are supporting signs that price action provides at the major resistance areas up above, then we could consider staying in for the longer haul.
As of now, targets would be key swing points up ahead on the H4 chart : 9.9k and then 10.3k [Bitstamp]
There is a long setup in the works on the lower time frames that can be taken advantage of, either as a short term trade in itself, or as a potential entry into the macro bull trend.
The Setup :
On the 4-Hour time frame, Bitcoin is clearly consolidating after a bullish impulse.
Until proven otherwise, this is consolidation is clearly the corrective phase before next impulse up.
Supporting factors: Higher time frames are also bullish right now - see macro bullish idea linked to this idea.
Link to macro idea
Idea is invalidated if :
Price impulsively breaks below the immediate support (8.7k area on Bitstamp)
(Note the keyword here -> impulsively breaks the support. If it breaks the support correctively, that could indicate that the bullflag structure is just extending into a larger one)
Possible entries :
1- Riskier entry, with potentially greater reward : risk ratio - enter on a retest of the immediate support below, with stop just below the support level
2- Higher probability entry - enter on a confirmed impulsive break of the bullflag trendline
Note :
This trade, if it materializes, may provide a short term entry into the macro bullish idea, but as of now should be treated as a short term trade
If there are supporting signs that price action provides at the major resistance areas up above, then we could consider staying in for the longer haul.
As of now, targets would be key swing points up ahead on the H4 chart : 9.9k and then 10.3k [Bitstamp]
Note
BTCUSD is still correcting. Waiting for clean impulse out of the correction to enter into a long trade.(Can use stop entry above correction trendline, or wait for candle close and take a a market entry)
Note
The trade opportunity is still active : nothing in the price action indicates that anything has changed. However, no valid entries have shown up yet.Price is still in a corrective flag pattern, just that it seems to be evolving into a slightly larger correction.
The area of interest are at the confluence of support area, major fib retracement areas (0.50 - 618 fib) and daily 50 MA are right below (rectangular area in the chart shown below).
**Larger picture on the daily timeframe is shown below :**
**On the 4-Hour timeframe :**
**What are we looking for to enter?**
Looking for corrective movement of price into the area and/or an impulse breaking out of the flag to enter.
**What would invalidate the current idea ?**
If price **impulsively** breaks below the 8.7k area (nothing has changed here)
Order cancelled
Trade idea is invalidated, as BTC USD broke below the immediate support on the 4-Hour without presenting an entry.
Simplifying trading is the way to go.
Clarity on the chart -> clarity in thinking.
Clarity on the chart -> clarity in thinking.
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