A preliminary look at the ongoing--perhaps engineered--collapse since the Bybit cold wallet fiasco...
The retracement to the $90K range, expected by many, from the ATH of 1/20 finally seems to have broken price action out of the prolonged compression in which has been stuck for over a month now. Where it's far from over, a couple of things stand out.
Presuming price action doesn't continue past the wick to just under
87K in the next two days (time of writing: 14:00 UTC on 2/25), we could be looking at an interesting Double Bottom formed with the low of 11/14/24.
Given the loss of
92K, we can fairly conclude that BTC has fallen back into a greater volume profile, one I have anchored here at 10/10/24, a prominent Swing Low. Bullish case: price action moves back quickly over the VAL and regains support over the value area POC and VWAP.
Bearish case: Price action is rejected at the VAL and continues to the next level of support. (High 70's? A retracement to $77K would fill the noteworthy CME Gap in that area.)
What ultimately makes or breaks the case for a 2025 Bull Run for BTC and crypto is a resumption of the interest in space that has characterized previous Post-Halving Years. That has been lacking so far in 2025.
The retracement to the $90K range, expected by many, from the ATH of 1/20 finally seems to have broken price action out of the prolonged compression in which has been stuck for over a month now. Where it's far from over, a couple of things stand out.
Presuming price action doesn't continue past the wick to just under
87K in the next two days (time of writing: 14:00 UTC on 2/25), we could be looking at an interesting Double Bottom formed with the low of 11/14/24.Given the loss of
92K, we can fairly conclude that BTC has fallen back into a greater volume profile, one I have anchored here at 10/10/24, a prominent Swing Low. Bullish case: price action moves back quickly over the VAL and regains support over the value area POC and VWAP.Bearish case: Price action is rejected at the VAL and continues to the next level of support. (High 70's? A retracement to $77K would fill the noteworthy CME Gap in that area.)
What ultimately makes or breaks the case for a 2025 Bull Run for BTC and crypto is a resumption of the interest in space that has characterized previous Post-Halving Years. That has been lacking so far in 2025.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.