Charts are essential, but it’s equally important to stay aware of major events that can significantly impact markets. Alongside this, I’ll share some theoretical insights.
Market During Presidencies:
The chart tracks the S&P 500’s growth on a logarithmic scale, highlighting U.S. presidential terms by party since 1933. Blue areas represent Democrat presidencies, and red areas indicate Republican presidencies. It shows that the market has grown steadily over time, despite fluctuations tied to economic cycles, policies, and global events. Key trends include significant growth during Clinton and Obama presidencies (dot-com boom, post-2008 recovery) and slower growth during Nixon and Carter presidencies. The chart also reflects recent market gains under Trump and Biden, despite challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, it demonstrates consistent long-term market growth under both political parties, driven by a mix of policies and external factors.
PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE
"Presidential Cycle" in trading refers to a theory that financial markets tend to follow a recurring pattern tied to the four-year term of U.S. presidential administrations. This cycle is based on the idea that government policies and political events during a president’s term can influence economic conditions and market behavior in predictable ways.
PHASES:
Chronological Flow of Events Fueling Bitcoin’s Exponential Growth
🏛️ FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve operates independently of the President and Congress, focusing on economic goals like controlling inflation, maintaining employment, and ensuring stability. While the President appoints members to the Board of Governors, these appointments require Senate confirmation and fixed terms, insulating monetary policy from political influence. This structure safeguards long-term economic stability and credibility.
Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance faces significant challenges due to the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and cautious approach to cryptocurrencies. The Fed has historically expressed skepticism about decentralized assets, citing concerns over financial stability, regulatory risks, and potential misuse. Instead, it prioritizes initiatives like Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), such as a digital dollar, which could compete with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
This divergence underscores a conflict of goals: pro-crypto policies encourage innovation and adoption, while the Fed views decentralized cryptocurrencies as a challenge to its control over monetary policy and the U.S. dollar’s global reserve currency status. Additionally, the Fed collaborates with other regulatory agencies, like the SEC and Treasury, which have traditionally taken a cautious stance on cryptocurrencies.
Ultimately, while Trump’s policies may boost private crypto adoption and innovation, the Federal Reserve’s focus on financial stability and its own priorities, like CBDCs, limits the broader impact of these policies. This highlights the difficulty of aligning political aspirations with the Fed’s institutional priorities.
Market During Presidencies:
The chart tracks the S&P 500’s growth on a logarithmic scale, highlighting U.S. presidential terms by party since 1933. Blue areas represent Democrat presidencies, and red areas indicate Republican presidencies. It shows that the market has grown steadily over time, despite fluctuations tied to economic cycles, policies, and global events. Key trends include significant growth during Clinton and Obama presidencies (dot-com boom, post-2008 recovery) and slower growth during Nixon and Carter presidencies. The chart also reflects recent market gains under Trump and Biden, despite challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, it demonstrates consistent long-term market growth under both political parties, driven by a mix of policies and external factors.
PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE
"Presidential Cycle" in trading refers to a theory that financial markets tend to follow a recurring pattern tied to the four-year term of U.S. presidential administrations. This cycle is based on the idea that government policies and political events during a president’s term can influence economic conditions and market behavior in predictable ways.
PHASES:
- Post-Election Year
Stock Market: New or re-elected presidents introduce reforms that may unsettle markets. Slower growth and higher volatility are common as policies stabilize.
₿ Market:
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant growth following U.S. presidential elections. For instance, after the 2016 election, Bitcoin’s price increased by over 2,500% in the subsequent year.
Potential Impact:
The resolution of electoral uncertainty typically restores market stability. Additionally, newly introduced policies can foster investor confidence, making alternative assets like Bitcoin more appealing. If these policies are crypto-friendly, they could accelerate Bitcoin adoption and drive price appreciation. - Midterm Year
Stock Market: Midterm elections create political uncertainty, often causing market corrections. The second half of the year typically sees recovery as clarity improves.
₿ Market:
Bitcoin may experience corrections or slower growth during midterm years. For example, in 2018, Bitcoin’s price declined significantly, aligning with the midterm election period.
Potential Impact:
Midterm elections can lead to shifts in political power, creating regulatory uncertainty for the crypto market. This could deter institutional investors or slow Bitcoin’s momentum. However, as the political landscape becomes clearer, the market could stabilize, potentially paving the way for future growth. - Pre-Election Year
Stock Market: Historically the strongest year, with administrations boosting the economy. Market-friendly policies lead to stronger performance and public support.
₿ Market:
Pre-election years have often been bullish for Bitcoin. In 2019, Bitcoin’s price saw substantial gains, rising from around $3,700 in January to over $13,000 by June.
Potential Impact:
Increased government spending and the anticipation of policy changes often stimulate economic activity, benefiting risk-on assets like Bitcoin. This optimism can lead to higher investor participation and significant price increases as the market factors in favorable policy expectations. - Election Year
Stock Market: Election uncertainty heightens volatility, but clarity post-election boosts markets. Performance depends on the perceived business-friendliness of leading candidates.
₿ Market:
Bitcoin has shown mixed reactions during election years. In 2020, despite initial volatility, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high post-election, suggesting that the resolution of political uncertainty can positively influence its price.
Potential Impact:
The election outcome often dictates the regulatory direction for cryptocurrencies. A pro-crypto administration could fuel optimism and attract new investors, while stricter regulations could introduce headwinds. Regardless, the post-election clarity often drives market confidence, benefiting Bitcoin’s valuation.
Chronological Flow of Events Fueling Bitcoin’s Exponential Growth
- Shift to CFTC Regulation
Trump proposed moving crypto regulation from the SEC to the CFTC, creating a friendlier environment to foster innovation and boost investor confidence. - Institutional and Retail Adoption
Bitcoin became accessible through retirement accounts and ETFs, driving demand from both institutions and retail investors. - Market Sentiment and Musk’s Influence
Endorsements from Elon Musk (Trump's circle) sparked optimism, fueling rallies and increasing crypto adoption. - Geopolitical Competition
The U.S. aimed to lead the crypto space, countering China’s dominance and stabilizing Bitcoin’s market. - Trump’s Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
A proposed U.S. Bitcoin reserve would position it alongside gold, boosting demand and global legitimacy. - J.D. Vance’s Proposal to Devalue the U.S. Dollar
Vance’s plan to weaken the dollar to boost exports contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21m coins, which makes it an inflation-resistant alternative to fiat currencies. Bitcoin’s finite supply and decentralized nature make it a strong hedge during monetary policy uncertainty, further solidifying its role as a store of value. Vance’s proposal inadvertently highlights the vulnerabilities of fiat currencies, positioning Bitcoin as a compelling alternative in a volatile economic landscape. - Holiday Effect
Bitcoin’s performance is influenced by alignment of market sentiment, economic factors, and geopolitical events with holiday seasonality known as the “holiday effect” during major holidays like Christmas and New Year.
🏛️ FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve operates independently of the President and Congress, focusing on economic goals like controlling inflation, maintaining employment, and ensuring stability. While the President appoints members to the Board of Governors, these appointments require Senate confirmation and fixed terms, insulating monetary policy from political influence. This structure safeguards long-term economic stability and credibility.
Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance faces significant challenges due to the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and cautious approach to cryptocurrencies. The Fed has historically expressed skepticism about decentralized assets, citing concerns over financial stability, regulatory risks, and potential misuse. Instead, it prioritizes initiatives like Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), such as a digital dollar, which could compete with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
This divergence underscores a conflict of goals: pro-crypto policies encourage innovation and adoption, while the Fed views decentralized cryptocurrencies as a challenge to its control over monetary policy and the U.S. dollar’s global reserve currency status. Additionally, the Fed collaborates with other regulatory agencies, like the SEC and Treasury, which have traditionally taken a cautious stance on cryptocurrencies.
Ultimately, while Trump’s policies may boost private crypto adoption and innovation, the Federal Reserve’s focus on financial stability and its own priorities, like CBDCs, limits the broader impact of these policies. This highlights the difficulty of aligning political aspirations with the Fed’s institutional priorities.
Note
The Presidential Cycle Theory generally holds well over time because most administrations follow somewhat predictable economic and policy rhythms. Keep in mind that it is still a valuable model, but it's more applicable to stable, institutional presidencies. Unfortunately, with wildcard leaders comes a need to layer on real-time political analysis, not just historical averages.
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ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
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ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
ᴀʟʟ ᴄᴏɴᴛᴇɴᴛ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇᴅ ʙʏ ꜰʀᴀᴄᴛʟᴀʙ ɪꜱ ɪɴᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ɪɴꜰᴏʀᴍᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴀɴᴅ ᴇᴅᴜᴄᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ ᴘᴜʀᴘᴏꜱᴇꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ.
ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪꜱ ɴᴏᴛ ɪɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴏꜰ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.