Long

BTCUSD Bitcoin Opportunity to buy in mid-May - Get ready!

Updated

As I had expected and had written about in my previous idea, bitcoin is entering a sell-off period in May. It did have a solid run- even more solid than I expected. Now we can expect a correction to the recent move. I expect that we will find a short-term bottom estimated May 15 - 20. ( It may be possible that the actual lowest point could occur even 1-2wk after that though - but looking from a longer term perspective, I believe any entry in Mid-May has an excellent chance of success over the next few months.) When we get a strong sell off then it will create a buying opportunity for Bitcoin and the crypto market. Although I have expected lows lower than the $6000 on February 6, it is possible that it may not go that low. That being said, I don't know exactly how low BTC will go, but I strongly suspect that it will go down from current levels and it will be an excellent buy entry around those dates May 15-20.

I expect Bitcoin to make a strong run after this and making a bubble formation around October - December 2018.

This is not advice to buy or to sell, I am sharing my ideas.
Please do your own research and make your own investment decisions.

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My previous idea

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I had proposed the turn around of the upward move will start April 25-26 OR if it didn't there, then by May 5-6. The earlier date turned out to be an extra bullish move instead. The downward turn went for the later Dates at May 6. That's ok, We got the pivot point dates right. Now look for a buying opportunity May 15-20.

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I have been studying the historical patterns on the chart and that is where I have based May as the buying opportunity. I just want to mention that I do expect a big sell off in May, but it is hard to pinpoint exactly where the bottom will come. Some of my calculations land around May 17, 2018. Potentially the bottom could come even at the end of May or by June 6 at the latest. That being said, as I mentioned before I still think any long entry in Mid-May to late May is likely to be successful over the next few months.

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5/10/18 - Warning - crypto has more to fall. May 16 MIGHT be the bottom, but as I mentioned, there still is a possibility for the actual bottom to occur 1-2 week later and likely not later than June 6.

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I see May 16 as a possible very short term bottom, but as I study LTC and BTC charts, I believe it is pointing more to a lower bottom around May 30 - June 2 approximately. I do believe LTC and BTC will turn upward soon after that in June. I am looking more for better prices for long positions in the May 30 - June 2 approximate dates.

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5/12/18 9am Eastern - We made a small jump up in LTC and BTC. Don't trust it! I expect it will be going back down by tonight or so. approx. As I said before - look for a short term bottom around May 16. But since we are in a correction period, buying at short-term bottoms still has significant risk. I am looking more towards May 30-June 2 time range.

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Update 5/13/18 Bitcoin is still following the pattern which I expected. What will happen now? It looks like BTC hit around 8200 on May 12. I still expect short term weakness until around May 16, intermediate-term weakness until Early June. Bitcoin and Litecoin seem to consistently follow repetitive fixed time period sine wave patterns, for what ever reason. Due to this consistency, we can actually predict the moves more accurately than one would think possible. That being said, it is hard to know exactly how high or exactly how low the price will go to. Due to that, I cannot tell you FOR CERTAIN based on these time periods if the price on May 16 will be lower than it was on the low on May 12. In theory, based on the time period study that i am using to predict future moves, May 16 could either be lower or higher than May 12 and still keep the current pattern. But based on the historical repetatitve time periods which I see, we can suspect a minor bounce to occur after May 16, probably. It's just that unless you are really good at pulling off successful short term trades, it is likely risky to try to buy for a short term trade here, since we are in a corrective period which will likely last until approximately beginning of June. There definitely will be up and down moves, there always are! I would rather not risk buying on possible temporary bottoms on the way down because I really think that we will see a lower low APPROX May 30-June 2. I am studying this time periods and if I believe that when we get closer to those dates we need to change when we look, I will definitely post that, so stayed tuned. The method I am using seems fairly consistent, but there still is always room for human error in any method. Stay tuned and I will keep it updated.

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Just to give you a glimpse in to my own personal "cheat sheet" for determining a prediction of upcoming moves, at this point in time, it appears the minor bounce dates are starting around May 17 and ending around May 21. After that bounce ends , it looks like it is set to decline again with a possible bottom between May 30 - June 2. Personally I will be looking around the May 30 for buying long positions, but I will update if it appears this needs to be adjusted. This is not buying or selling advice and please note this method does not give us numbers of future prices or percentage of future gain or loss.

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Please note that I am using a timing method based on multiple various frequencies of repetitive sine waves in the chart. The method seems pretty accurate, but I am still fine tuning it and there is room for human error. Keep that in mind. This is not advice to buy or sell. You should base your own decisions on your own research and study.

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Update: 5/15/18 Still following the expected course. I still expect a minor bounce occuring approx during dates of May 17 - 21 -this does not tell the EXACT day which gives the high of the bounce. But we are in a longer downtrend as I said before until early June. How high will the bounce go - when we are in a longer downtrend? It can vary, sometimes the bounce is more than I expect, but the longer downtrend sometimes weakens the bounces - and even in some cases the longer scale downtrend can be strong enough to overpower the shorter term bounce . This is why I do not want to risk the short-term trade until going long estimated May 30 or so. It is completely up to you how you want to trade.

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Update 5/16/18 It is still following the expected course. It turns out that May 16 we did go lower than May 12. My chart for BTC shows a bounce upwards between May 17 - May 22 now. APPROXIMATELY. I don't know exactly how high it will go. sometimes in a downtrend the bounce can be weaker even just a halt to the downtrend. We could get a genuine bounce. Either way, I expect lows lower than May 16 around the end of May. Estimated May 30-June 2.

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Update 5/17/2018 3:50pm. Nothing new. On my chart, we are approximately at the start of the short term bounce. I know it looks like the price is falling now. But it's just that it fell on schedule and now my chart shows a short term bounce - but as I said before - sometimes these short term bounces in a downtrend can be a real bounce, but other times it just amounts to a slowing of the longer-term downtrend and if the longer-term downtrend is strong enough, the bounce may in some cases still be overpowered by the longer-term downtrend. So look now for a temporary bounce. Approx May 17 - May 22. Nothing new than what I said before.

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Update - Not much to update. The price of BTC still is dropping. As I said before the APPRX DATES of a possible short term bounce are today 5/17/18 - 5/22/18. But be aware the longer term downtrend lasts until the beginning of June or so.
Do you want to trade the short term bounce? I do not. Because I really don't know if it will go up enough to be worth it or not. The time periods I am studying are not precise enough to tell you exactly what time we will see the change.
If the bounce is going to amount to anything - my chart shows we should see some upward movement BY around 5/18/18 2PM eastern time. (again not exactly precise). I am interested to see how much movement upwards we get. I am not trading this at this point.

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5/18/18 7:30am Price is off the bottom from last night. According to my chart, if this bounce will amount to much, we will see more of the bounce by 5/19/18 evening or 5/20/18 morning. I still expect the end of the bounce to be by approx 5/22/18. I am not trading this bounce.

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On 5/17/18 I said I thought we would likely see upward movement by 2pm today. This is because it is when the recurring smaller sine wave cycles pointed to a small up movement. This is not always precise to the exact hour, but this time it was. Notice that at 2pm we went from $8100 - 8224. As of writing BTC at 8209. 5/18/18 3pm. It may rise a bit more in the next few hours or maybe not. I expect a small dip by 5/19/18 3pm approx now. After which time, I expect the bounce which I predicted to resume. I expect the bounce to end by approx May 22. Check if these are more or less accurate. The method I am using keeps surprising me how accurate it is, though not always precise to exact hours, etc.

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The times I am saying are in Eastern Daylight Time zone USA.

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Nothing new. It is following the pattern I said before. I expect a small dip in price by tomorrow 5/19/18 3pm (approx), then for it to bounce upwards during the dates of approx May 20-22. Warning, if we see this bounce, do not trust it. I still expect the price to go down again after the May 22 approx date.

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Now I am going to be more specific -- but still, these predictions could be off by a few hours or so. Times are in Eastern Daylight time..
My chart shows the following predictions (cannot tell you exact prices)

May 19 3pm - May 20 4pm Small to moderate move upwards
May 20 4pm - May 21 5pm Small move down - or flattened
May 21 5pm - May 22 6pm - Small to moderate move upwards, likely higher than
May 19

There you have it, I am just reading it off the lines on my chart. The harder thing about interpreting these future smaller moves, is that THIS bounce is all PART of a longer downtrend. Downtrends will weaken potential bounces (until the downtrend is over). Again, as I said before, sometimes the bounces can be good size, but if the overall downtrend power is stronger than the prospective bounce, the bounce can be weaker. So that means I am not exactly sure to what $ amount BTC will reach during this.

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Don't forget the small dip in BTC price between now and 5/19/18 3pm EDT

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Update on the bounce - I suspect the bounce is May 17-22 still but, studying the chart carefully tells me about the dates May 22 -24.
There is a possibility that the May 24 date could get a higher price in BTC compared with May 22. But since we are in a longer term downtrend, I think odds favor May 22 having the higher price. Just keep in mind that with this trading method, it could go either way for May 22 vs 24; but either way, I expect BTC price to then go down to around the beginning of June.

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5/19/18 4:18pm EDT. It is easier to see the bounce that happened STARTING 5/17/18 now that there actually is a bounce to see. I honestly felt a bit funny calling it a bounce when it was 5/17, because it didn't look like a bounce when it was at the short term bottom. You can see the "small dip" by 3pm prediction came true as well. The price made a run up and dipped down between 8am - 3pm today. Sometimes the actual bottom or top can be slightly off from the predicted time, but it does usually approximate to it.

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What I am talking about is a timing strategy resulting from a very thorough study of many different frequencies of sine waves (cycles if you prefer) which are all jumbled in the chart together and it is hard to point them out, unless you dissect each frequency INVIDUALLY, and study each frequency, then learn the approximate amplitude of the waves as well and how they interact with each other and the exact time between each peak and trough (which is fixed for each frequency) The price on the chart is directly affected by the sum total of the waves - whether the waves are negative or positive. I have no idea WHY this is though. I am only studying what I can see. The chart does answer questions like "why'. There is always room for some unexpected moves, as I have studied the chart more, I am surprised that the ups and down moves are highly predictable. with a little room for unexpected.

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Just to be clear on the chart - the red and green arrows weren't actually intended to match up with exact times and prices. So don't read too much into the arrows, ok? I don't expect it to follow the red and green arrows exactly. So far it did come pretty close to the red arrow down though. I have no expectation for it to follow the green arrow--- And I really expect downward movement in most of crypto land until around the first week of June.

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As I said small dip by 3pm - it is still normal for the dip down to land within 2-3h before or after the exact time. Now BTC is at 8200. But the trend will change upward. I expected upward movement starting likely sometime later today 5/19/18 until 5/20/18 4pm APPROX, give or take a few hours.

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IMPORTANT UPDATE -- I was studying the charts, and it may be possible that the low point of this current downtrend could be as late as June 4-6. I did say that I expected before June 6 before though. But now, I do think June 4 has a good chance of the low of the downtrend which started in May. But still look in the date range between May 30 - June 4 for buying opportunities.

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It is 5/20/2018 4:27 and BTC has moved EXACTLY as I predicted AGAIN! Remember I said by 5/19/18 3pm there would be a SMALL DIP. then after that until around 5/20/18 4PM there would be a small to moderate move up. All of this is part of the "bounce" starting May 17 which I predicted before it hit the bottom on May 17. Bounce is mostly showing me May 17-22 BUT as I said before it is still possible that May 24 could be higher than May 22. There are so many smaller, intermediate, and larger cycles to calcualte - and they work against each other. That's why it is not completely clear if May 22 will be higher or May 24. Both May 22 and May 24 occur on days that there is a minor up wave. So, likely one or the other will be the high of this bounce. The other one will likely be a lower high. After the May 24, BTC goes down again. Look to buy May 30- June 4 range approx.

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I don't know if anyone is actually reading any of this. But you should know that technical analysis cannot predict the future. This is actually way beyond technical analysis what we are doing. This is studying cycles which fairly accurately predict FUTURE movement. (Nothing is 100% accurate of course! It's VERY accurate, but not 100%) Technical analysis is still very good and very important though. I am all for TA and I like the read TAs by others on Trading view. But predicting the future is better. Just my opinion.

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In the last few hours it seems to have fallen out of the pattern - but I honestly think it is more that my shorter timeframes are slightly off. I need to recalibrate the shorter time frames. It may be more accurate for shorter time frames if I use something like a 15 min chart. I am going to look into this.

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I think the concept of what I am doing is more or less working, but it needs to be fine tuned for shorter timeframes.

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I see some inaccuracies or else minor unexpected moves in my current short-term time frames. We are still on track for buy approx May 30-June 4. I am currently working on refining the short-term time frames. Already earlier today I found another short-term pattern which I didn't see before. I have realized that for working with these time cycles in which the half-cycle is less than several days, it will not work well using 1 hour candle charts. 1 hour candle charts works well with the longer time frames. 1d candle charts or 1wk candle charts are good for the long-term trends. But for these short trends where the half-cycle is less than 3d, I have learned I need to use something like the 15min candle chart. The plus point of BTC and other crypto is we have 24h 7d week data on the charts. Due to that, we can more accurately calculate shorter term waves which are occuring even in other markets -like stock market, but since they don't show 24h data, it gets skewed. This method does work with the stock market on the longer term trends though. BTC and crypto are better for this on shorter-term time frames due to the 24h 7d /wk data.

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I am still refining this, but looking at my newer version of short-term trends, I do expect some upside between now 12pm 5/22/18 and 8am-10am 5/23/18. Check if this happens. But maybe just weak upside. I am not trading long yet until around May 30- June 4

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Update 5/22/18
It appears that i will need to refine the smallest cycles, and i am working on that. But the other points of intermediate cycles are still following as i said. Remember i said the bounce was may 17-22? I said that Before May 17. I could not know that unless i was studying these cycled. Calculating many cycles at once is a challenge, but it may be easier if we made a computer program calculate all at once. As of now, i am calculating in my head and it is an awful lot of data to keep track of

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Despite all this, though i missed a minor move, everything else is exactly following the pattern i set out

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We DID have a bounce May 17-22. All of the other minor predictions DID happen. We are on track for a buying opportunity May 30-June 4. I suspect By june 6 at the latest but i am looking more earlier

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But as far as if the longer term bear market is over, i have recently reviewed longer term data, and i am having doubts abour my buy in may, sell in october idea. I stil think we can buy crypto at the datez i said, but after more study, i will try to see wbere btc is headed. Keep in mind, not all of the coins are on the same patterns at btc though

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My conclusions so far is the methid i am using is accurate for predicting the rough pattern of btc future moves, but so far i have not been able to calculate and predict every fine short term bump or dip. I am able to predict these over say 75% of the time still, but there is just too many cycles going on in the chart to calculate every small move with 100% accuracy. I am interested in taking what i learn and to make a spreadsheet or program to do the difficult mathmatical calculations. It may be that it isnt possible for the human brain to calculate all these cycles without the aid of a computer program

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But that being said, that was mostly for the higher frequencies. Smaller moves like intraday moves. On the other hand, for fluctuations of a few days or longer it seems very accurate. I still think i can refine this more

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5/25/18 Nothing really new. I would still suggest to avoid long positions in BTC now! It appears on my chart that we have more downside coming soon on BTC! Many of the other coins do follow BTC pretty closely, especially LTC. Same applies there. As I said before, look between May 30- June 4 for long positions in LTC or BTC. But I am currently leaning towards closer to the June 4 side personally.

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I plan to do more study on longer term trends in BTC soon. I think we will have some upside after this low in early June, but the bigger question still remains - where is BTC headed on the longer term. Some upside, yes! BUt based on some of my studies, I have doubts on how high in 2018. Still I plan to study this more and post an idea on it when I am ready. :) Stay tuned.

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So looking at the chart - we did have a bump on May 24 - as I mentioned, but it just started from lower. BTC is still following the pattern - even the shorter term one, but calculating every fine short term fluctation accurately enough is challenging. Safer to trade the longer term fluctuations. So, as I said, I do think we will have a bottom around May 30- June 4. But it may not be a buy and hold for years since it appears the long-term down trend may go on for some time. Keep in mind that other coins may fare diffently than BTC.

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I am starting a series to explain the method of calculating the sine waves/ cycles in the chart. There is a lot to explain, can't just do it in one idea. Lesson one is here

DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average- MARKET CYCLES Lesson One

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Update on BTC. We did hit a support trendline and bounced up. Obviously it's good to watch and see how this holds up. My calculations still show the end of this current correction to be around June 4 - June 6. The bottom does not always occur at the the exact end though. Still I am still watching for the dates May 30- June 4 for entering a long position.

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UPDATE - Things are still on track. Here are several possible buying windows -- it's hard to say which of these will be the best price of BTC. Times are in Eastern Daylight US time.
May 30 - evening Probably 8pm or before
June 1 evening to around 2am June 2
June 3 11pm - June 4 4am
June 5 around 10pm

This is not advice to buy then, But possibly there will be buying opportunities in or around these windows. TImes still are approximate though.

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As far as where is BTC going, it looks like the next GREEN zone starts around June 5 and ends around July 5. But I also see a longer term cycle which is GREEN (bullish) starting in late May and ending late September. I will be posting new ideas of BTC soon. but what this means for us, BTC may be more buillish for the next few months than it has been. Stay tuned for more ideas soon.

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Update - Notice I did not put May 31 on the buying windows? I expected a minor move upwards on May 31. Look at June 1 evening for a better opportunity. I have personally not purchased any crypto yesterday, although I do think we could have done so. I decided to bet for June 1 being a better opportunity or after.

BTC and LTC are doing a cycle - the half cycle is approximately 1 month. So, we reach the low point of this cycle by around June 5. The actual bottom does not always occur exactly on the low point of this cycle. It can, but not always. That is why I am also looking at the more short term patterns to look at buying windows. But, that being said, we could still buy any day between now and June 5.

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I posted a new BTC idea here:

BITCOIN BTCUSD BTC Look for a buying opportunity now

cedarfox

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