Short

BTCUSD: MAR 2020 is repeating. Deep Recession $6-8k price target

By nickmitchko

Updated

Despite our want to see keep rising, , a deep recession in imminent.

Reasons

The market is in a deep disconnect with the economy: Forbes Explains this Well.. If you believe the mean reversion theory, this disconnect had to end at some point.
BTC is held by many traders and institutional investors as a risk-on asset. These are the first to get liquidated before the market slides. It also shows why BTC leads market moves and the first mean reversion happens in CRYPTO.
deflationary forces will lower prices regardless. Despite the best effort to pump the economy, the deflation is in force. While some goods have increased in prices, services has taken such a hit that we may expect a deflationary spiral. The only contrast to these spirals in terms of real value are assets (physical, crypto, informational).

Light at the end of the tunnel

For the crypto trader, or enthusiast, I only expect a short pullback with the bottom in by the us presidential election
Combined with a strong supply push, we can easily reach new ATH's by year's end.
My current buyback targets are 6k and 7k.

Note

What the near term will look like:

1. There will be a side-step or even gradual gain to potentially 10900. This will be as the regular market forces (bots) start to take back the majority of volume of the total trader. This will be for the next week or two (timing uncertain)
2. SPY / general market will continue to fall. Not tremendously, but enough to be concerned. The gradual -1% days will continue for about a week.
3. Finally, after smelling enough blood to call your bank ready to close your accounts, the market will call the crash "over". The traders and bulls will rally, the market may even post some +3 +4 or +5% days. This will be short lived. (this may last 3-5 trading days)
4. After the fake recovery, the real drop in BTC will occur. This will take the form of an accelerating slide and not a huge sell off like we saw today. Imagine an avalanche that starts with one snow ball. A 300/BTC drop in a few hours will be followed with one or two hours of -$1000/BTC.
5. This will most likely stabilize around 8ish k/BTC. A subsequent sell off may take us further down.

This entire process may be around 2-4 weeks long.

Note

Let's take a look so far at what has happened the past week:

We are still side stepping, which is a good place to exit. the market has had a few consecutive red days and now will post some green days as expected. Expect BTC to gain a little as the large equity market moves up slightly. Wait on step 2 and 3.

1. There will be a side-step or even gradual gain to potentially 10900. This will be as the regular market forces (bots) start to take back the majority of volume of the total trader. This will be for the next week or two (timing uncertain)

Note

nickmitchko

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