Updated

89542.51 or higher, the key is whether the price can be maintain

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The April TradingView competition is sponsored by PEPPERSTONE.

Accordingly, we will look at the coins (tokens) and items that can be traded in the competition.

Today, we will talk about the BTCUSD chart for the first time.

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(BTCUSD 1D chart)

If the price is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it can be interpreted that it is in an upward trend in the medium to long term.

Currently, it is showing a short-term uptrend as it rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, but it is highly likely that it will continue to rise only if it rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.

Therefore, the key is whether it can maintain the price by rising to around 89542.51.

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We need to see if the OBV is maintained above the middle line and can break through the upper line.

Since the StochRSI indicator is currently in the overbought zone, if there is no increase in trading volume, it is likely to eventually show a downtrend.

If it shows a downtrend, it is expected that it will eventually meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and determine the trend again.

At this time, we need to check whether there is support near 73589.43.

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The competition starts on April 1.

As I mentioned in the Binance BTCUSDT chart description, the next volatility period is expected to be around April 5 (April 4-6).

Therefore, we need to check whether the price is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart or above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and decide the position.

In other words, I think it is good to decide the position depending on whether there is support near the original section marked on the 30m chart.

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It is expected that the key point of this competition will be whether the trading volume can increase and whether the price can be maintained by rising above 89542.51.

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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.

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- This is an explanation of the big picture.

I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.

I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10).

(Previous BTCUSD 12M chart)

Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.

In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.

Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.

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(Current BTCUSD 12M chart)

Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15).

Fibonacci ratio 0.618 (44234.54) is not expected to fall again.

(BTCUSDT 12M chart)

Looking at the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58.

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I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart.

The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the light green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges.

In other words, it seems likely to act as a volume profile range.

Therefore, in order to break through this section upward, I think the point to watch is whether it can rise with support near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28).

Therefore, the maximum rising section in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) section.

To do that, we need to look at whether it can rise with support near 2.618 (134018.28).

If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but considering the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%.

So, if the decline starts near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54).

I will explain more details when the downtrend starts.

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Note

I think the gap increase of USDT and USDC is a sign of funds flowing into the coin market.

Funds are continuously flowing in, but why is there no bull market?

Except for BTC and some coins (tokens), the remaining coins (tokens) are clearly showing a downward trend.

Then, it can be said that the funds flowing into the coin market were eventually absorbed by BTC and some coins (tokens).

You may think that you can get bigger profits by buying coins (tokens) that have fallen a lot, but you should be careful about the investment period because it can take a long time to continue the upward trend.

In addition, since you cannot know when a coin (token) will be delisted, you should be careful when trading coins (tokens) that are falling too much.

Since BTC dominance is maintained above 55.01, it can be said that BTC price fluctuations ultimately dominate the current market.

If BTC dominance rises above 62.47, altcoins are likely to show a larger decline, so caution is required when trading altcoins.

Requirements for an uptrend in the coin market:
1. BTC dominance must be maintained below 55.01 or show a downward trend.

2. USDT dominance must be maintained below 4.97 or show a downward trend.

I think that when requirements 1 and 2 above are met, the coin market is likely to start an upward trend.

Therefore, we need a strategy to identify where the current fund flow, that is, the funds flowing into the coin market, are concentrated and respond accordingly.

Currently, the funds in the coin market are thought to be concentrated towards BTC, so it can be seen as a time to buy BTC.

In other words, I think a change of power is taking place.

Note

#BTCUSDT

The volatility period has ended.

Although the price has not been maintained around 89294.25 since the volatility period ended, I think there is still a possibility of an increase because it has not yet fallen below the downtrend line.

Therefore, if it falls, we need to check if the price can be maintained around the Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (83646.12).

- I think it is having a hard time rising above 89294.25 due to the fact that the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought zone,
- The OBV Price channel is showing a downward trend,
- The M-Signal indicator on the 1D, 1W charts is in a reverse arrangement and the price is trapped.

As the M-Signal indicators on the 1D and 1W charts are converging, there is a high possibility that a trend will form depending on which direction it breaks through.

Trade active

#BTCUSD 30m

Heikin Ashi's Close = (Open + High + Low + Close) /4
What we can see from this median is the boundary between the uptrend and the downtrend.

Accordingly, it is important to be able to maintain the price above 84500, and if possible above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.

(1D)

Then it will be between the M-Signal on the 1D chart and the M-Signal on the 1W chart again.

To continue the uptrend, it needs to rise above 89842.51.

Note

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