Bitcoin - A Story for 2020
It looks bad right now for permabulls, but I think there is a scenario where the price bottom $3120 is still valid. I want to speculate on what could happen as we move forward here and lay out how the story of Bitcoin in 2020 could possibly unfold.
There have been 3 times that I can see from Bitcoin's history where the prices has fallen more than 70%. They are highlighted in the chart.
The first one is too small to see ... details are ... From Dec 15, 2014 to Jan 12, 2015, the price fell off a cliff from $398 to $109 which comes to about a 72% drop.
After each time, the price began finding a bottom, accumulation started followed by huge melt ups. In this scenario, these are ultimate shake outs to remove retail traders from the scenario and to hand over their coins to whales. If you think about it, what would the world look like if there were double or even triple the amount of "rich people" walking around??? The whales will not let this happen, and they have the fire power, and more importantly the staying power (retail traders almost always have 0 staying power, betting the max every chance they get), to will what they want to happen.
Very interesting to see here ... there was a big drop on Nov 18, 2018, which started the bottoming process at $3128. Using the Bars Pattern tool, I extrapolated what the future price movement could be based on the prices after that drop.
It nearly perfectly double bottoms before starting its next price discovery, bottoming, accumulation, and melt up.
So based on the thoughts above, the story unfolds as follows ...
Anticipate another drop to the 3000s ... maybe even a quick wick below to hunt stops that are undoubtedly sitting below. This should be the end of capitulation and cause almost all retail permabulls to give up and unload their bags. Then months of ranging between $5500 to $3500 (probably being capped by the 200MA, its at $5500 right now ...) ... the rest of the retail permabulls will unload in the 5000s thinking this is the best price they will ever get and they better get out now or it will be too late ... when in reality its accumulation by whales once again. All the reports and analysis will still be doom and gloom.
But once whales crack it back above the 200MA, then its off to the races. The crack should be a quick one that leaves retail traders little to no chance to jump back in on the run at favorable prices. Looking like that can happen in July. Target $24000 - $25000 to complete the move before a big retrace after whales are happy they made their millions (to add on to millions they already have), and leave retail traders to chase the crumbs.
There have been 3 times that I can see from Bitcoin's history where the prices has fallen more than 70%. They are highlighted in the chart.
The first one is too small to see ... details are ... From Dec 15, 2014 to Jan 12, 2015, the price fell off a cliff from $398 to $109 which comes to about a 72% drop.
After each time, the price began finding a bottom, accumulation started followed by huge melt ups. In this scenario, these are ultimate shake outs to remove retail traders from the scenario and to hand over their coins to whales. If you think about it, what would the world look like if there were double or even triple the amount of "rich people" walking around??? The whales will not let this happen, and they have the fire power, and more importantly the staying power (retail traders almost always have 0 staying power, betting the max every chance they get), to will what they want to happen.
Very interesting to see here ... there was a big drop on Nov 18, 2018, which started the bottoming process at $3128. Using the Bars Pattern tool, I extrapolated what the future price movement could be based on the prices after that drop.
It nearly perfectly double bottoms before starting its next price discovery, bottoming, accumulation, and melt up.
So based on the thoughts above, the story unfolds as follows ...
Anticipate another drop to the 3000s ... maybe even a quick wick below to hunt stops that are undoubtedly sitting below. This should be the end of capitulation and cause almost all retail permabulls to give up and unload their bags. Then months of ranging between $5500 to $3500 (probably being capped by the 200MA, its at $5500 right now ...) ... the rest of the retail permabulls will unload in the 5000s thinking this is the best price they will ever get and they better get out now or it will be too late ... when in reality its accumulation by whales once again. All the reports and analysis will still be doom and gloom.
But once whales crack it back above the 200MA, then its off to the races. The crack should be a quick one that leaves retail traders little to no chance to jump back in on the run at favorable prices. Looking like that can happen in July. Target $24000 - $25000 to complete the move before a big retrace after whales are happy they made their millions (to add on to millions they already have), and leave retail traders to chase the crumbs.
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