Bitcoin Finally Showed it's Hand, Volatility is Back :)
Updated
Conclusion of my previous analysis: My view now is as neutral as it gets. A break of 6320 or 6270 will probably push me slightly towards the bull or bear side. A break of the higher low formation (6200) should be a big sell signal.
It seems some people have difficulties with reading and understanding English and and trading is about being right or wrong instead of making profit. I understand that the less experienced might not understand everything i am saying in my analysis, since i always write a lot and use different terms and show several scenario's. Feel free to ask questions next time in the comment section, i don't always have the time but i do my best to answer everything. Trading markets is not just about looking at the chart and thinking that this is it and nothing can change. Today's momentum is not always the same tomorrow. Exactly that is what i try to tell and explain when writing my analysis of Bitcoin'. Objectivity is by far the most important important factor when trying to have a view. Me personally had a slightly neutral/bullish view the past months, but i never stopped mentioning the bearish signals. That way it doesn't become a surprise when certain upfront planned levels break, taking emotion and hope out of the equation.
We had quite the day yesterday, with the big dump we saw. I had planned a bullish wedge before the first wave down even happend and my members and i planned to go long around 6265 if it would play out. Here on TV i posted the same pattern through that triangle pattern that played out as well where it just kept following my lines as it used to do when we had the beautiful volatility earlier this year. Volatility means high volume and faster moves, in other words less manipulation, which makes it much easier to trade again :).
As i mentioned in the previous analysis, the Altcoins started to show real weakness again for the first time in maybe 2 weeks. I also said that because of the high OI on Bitmex we would probably see a big move of around 500 points, which was at first a 700 point drop. It dropped from 830 mil to just below the 600 mil. At the moment it's at 520 mil, which is a very low number, but when looking at it in BTC' instead of $, the difference is still there but less big than one would think. This number is also a sign of the interest in this market.
Now yesterday's drop was very high volume and it's size gives us an impulse wave. Usually we get a second wave before thinking the hurting might be over. The shape of this second drop could be everything, it could be even bigger than the first one but can also be much smaller. When looking at the big triangle we moved inside of the past months, my indication for NOW is around 4500. On the left i think we might see something like this, where i assume we might see another decent drop before the bigger correction up starts. When this finishes and we stay below the 6000ish, i expect that second wave down. The scenario on the right is obviously based on what i have shown on the left. So if that moves differently, i will rewrite my longer term plan.
For now we have had some bounces up, but nothing aggressive yet though. Today we did have a strong bounce, a bear trap move where we dropped to 5200 and squeezed up even faster to 5500. But instead of bulls taking that chance to push through that bull flag, we have been moving sideways for more than half a day. Showing how weak the market still is. Bears need to be nervous before we can think that a real low has been set, nothing happened yet that bears who shorted at 6000/6200 to get scared. We need their short covering to create that aggressive buying power to be able to put in a low.
On the right you can see a possible V shape low supported by rocket ships :) (i finally figured out how my colleagues could put them in their charts :) ) This scenario can only happen if we see another panic dumping like we had yesterday. I showed a picture of the Feb 2018 V shape low, it gives an indication of how it could look like.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
It seems some people have difficulties with reading and understanding English and and trading is about being right or wrong instead of making profit. I understand that the less experienced might not understand everything i am saying in my analysis, since i always write a lot and use different terms and show several scenario's. Feel free to ask questions next time in the comment section, i don't always have the time but i do my best to answer everything. Trading markets is not just about looking at the chart and thinking that this is it and nothing can change. Today's momentum is not always the same tomorrow. Exactly that is what i try to tell and explain when writing my analysis of Bitcoin'. Objectivity is by far the most important important factor when trying to have a view. Me personally had a slightly neutral/bullish view the past months, but i never stopped mentioning the bearish signals. That way it doesn't become a surprise when certain upfront planned levels break, taking emotion and hope out of the equation.
We had quite the day yesterday, with the big dump we saw. I had planned a bullish wedge before the first wave down even happend and my members and i planned to go long around 6265 if it would play out. Here on TV i posted the same pattern through that triangle pattern that played out as well where it just kept following my lines as it used to do when we had the beautiful volatility earlier this year. Volatility means high volume and faster moves, in other words less manipulation, which makes it much easier to trade again :).
As i mentioned in the previous analysis, the Altcoins started to show real weakness again for the first time in maybe 2 weeks. I also said that because of the high OI on Bitmex we would probably see a big move of around 500 points, which was at first a 700 point drop. It dropped from 830 mil to just below the 600 mil. At the moment it's at 520 mil, which is a very low number, but when looking at it in BTC' instead of $, the difference is still there but less big than one would think. This number is also a sign of the interest in this market.
Now yesterday's drop was very high volume and it's size gives us an impulse wave. Usually we get a second wave before thinking the hurting might be over. The shape of this second drop could be everything, it could be even bigger than the first one but can also be much smaller. When looking at the big triangle we moved inside of the past months, my indication for NOW is around 4500. On the left i think we might see something like this, where i assume we might see another decent drop before the bigger correction up starts. When this finishes and we stay below the 6000ish, i expect that second wave down. The scenario on the right is obviously based on what i have shown on the left. So if that moves differently, i will rewrite my longer term plan.
For now we have had some bounces up, but nothing aggressive yet though. Today we did have a strong bounce, a bear trap move where we dropped to 5200 and squeezed up even faster to 5500. But instead of bulls taking that chance to push through that bull flag, we have been moving sideways for more than half a day. Showing how weak the market still is. Bears need to be nervous before we can think that a real low has been set, nothing happened yet that bears who shorted at 6000/6200 to get scared. We need their short covering to create that aggressive buying power to be able to put in a low.
On the right you can see a possible V shape low supported by rocket ships :) (i finally figured out how my colleagues could put them in their charts :) ) This scenario can only happen if we see another panic dumping like we had yesterday. I showed a picture of the Feb 2018 V shape low, it gives an indication of how it could look like.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
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6265 should be 5265Note
Seems TA on open longs/shorts is working as well :). Good to see the longs are increasing again, even the shorts btw. Because i was worried lately that something might be wrong with Bitfinex, because of Tether. But seeing these numbers increasing again shows the confidence is probably back again. On the left we can see the Tether chart again, if this was not just manipulation yesterday than i don't know what is. Made the crash a month ago, was stable around 0.99 for a weeks and the past few days it starts to drop again? From the moment the bulls made an attempt to push above the 6600. Yesterday it starts to drop a lot again and now it's moving up just as fast, like nothing is wrong? Like we did not break an important long term support? I wish they could just get rid of this Tether nonsense, only creating confusion and uncertainty.
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My legendary wedge play i mentioned above, I just have to show this one again :) Actually it's not that legendary, because i have done a lot of these this year, thanks to volatility. New plan, bigger wedge that turns into an inverse H&S, if we see movement like this i will try to catch the low with half a position and increase on the way up.
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Thought we could still see one more wave up, but when looking at Finex, seems we broke the wedge already and might be dropping. The past 2 days the wedges on Finex have been the ones that showed the way. Still a chance for a move up before the drop starts that i showed in the left chart in the primary chart. But than the green support on the left has to hold. Could also be an inverse H&S, because the head was formed with good volume and speed earlier today. So a quick jump to 5700ish could mean we will even go to 5800/5900. A slow move and low volume will probably mean we will drop again eventually as the blue line of the primary chart shows.
So a lot of options now. The slow break up would fit my bigger picture plan from above, a big break up will chance things.
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Still following the blue line of the possible inverse H&S, but it's clearly taking it's time, so not a lot of conviction on that side. Some alts also showed possible inverse H&S, but they all dropped too much to stil be think of them as one. So unclear what the next step will be, but at least we have a clear range now when we look on the left chart. With the high and low around 5500 and 5600. A slow/small break of the 5600 will probably still mean as i mentioned in the previous update
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I have seen some comments about the spaceships :) LOL, it's just a joke, nothing more than thatNote
Still inside that range, but the longer it takes the more likely bears will take control. Note
The buyers did not give up easily so it looked like they were trying, but were all weak attempt. Finally broke the range and from the looks of it there are 2 options now. Making a higher low around that green support, but it's only a HL if the previous high around 5600 breaks. Or we continue to drop as i had shown in my primary chart, following that path. It's weekend now, so volume is already dropping a lot and fake moves will increase again. So i would be careful when trading. I always do smaller sizes during weekends, that is IF i even trade then.Note
Change of plans it seems, out of nowhere there was a lot of buying on Bitmex (did not see the others). If they push through the 5600 within a few minutes, we could see 5800 or so soon as well. If it takes a long time, it will probably just be another retest of the resistance again.Note
We seem te be caught up again in triangle moves from left to right. I don't expect any real moves today, probably stay within a 200 point range i think. When ignoring my personal (subjective) view, looks like we are making triangles again. On bitfinex it seems a big one even, but normally it should have broken out already, almost like the 8500/6000 triangle which got extended way too much. So a breakout should trigger something, but as i mentioned above, i don't think targets will get reached.
I would take the day off, Saturday's have been the worst to trade the past 2/3 months.
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Here we can see how XLM and XRP are maybe the only coins who are still doing okay compared to most other.Note
So as expected nothing happened and from the looks of it i don't think something big will happen today as well. Looks like a triangle breakout but because it got to big, i don't think we will see a real triangle movement. Alts are slowly turning up now, so it could be we might see a move to the upside now. Think a bit up has more chance of succeeding now. I am still going to watch this a bit more from the sidelines.
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Was afraid of this nonsense, a break up and getting pushed down just as fast again. If the 5500 breaks within 15 min, we could see an even bigger drop, would make it like a Bart move. Otherwise there might still be a chance that it is a pullback, to retest former resistance. Usually a pullback should not happen this fast. Note
Maybe a good confirmation again for not trading during weekends. This was a typical Bart move, break up, dropping just as fast again, making a bear flag and another wave down. Seems we are not done with these moves. At the moment it looks like it is trying to move up again. If it gets above the 5550 things will be neutral again.Alts are weakening and some breaking support as well. These are not looking good at the moment.
I am still just watching
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New analysis:
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