1001 days in the life of a Bitcoin turkey
Updated
There has been a multi-year bull trend where BTC rises, corrects, rises, corrects...
Every time BTC successfully survives a correction and makes another run, confidence only increases in this pattern.
...this is exactly like Taleb's "Turkey Problem".
"Consider a turkey that is fed every day," Taleb writes. "Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race 'looking out for its best interests,' as a politician would say.
"On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief."
"Consider that [the turkey's] feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest!"
Keep in mind that we've been in a short-term bear trend which, according to the past, should have basically bottomed out, soon reverse course, and BTC will be back to making ATHs in a few months.
...OR we're getting closer and closer to Thanksgiving Dinner.
This is why risk management is imperative and prediction is a sucker's game.
Don't get me wrong...I think there is a lot of money to be made in cryptos and BTC and that this tech could change the world. BUT this multi-year BTC climb has also blinded folks to the true amount of risk they are taking on. There are alot of turkeys that believe that the price just has to keep going up and up and up. And it will...until it doesn't.
Every time BTC successfully survives a correction and makes another run, confidence only increases in this pattern.
...this is exactly like Taleb's "Turkey Problem".
"Consider a turkey that is fed every day," Taleb writes. "Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race 'looking out for its best interests,' as a politician would say.
"On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief."
"Consider that [the turkey's] feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest!"
Keep in mind that we've been in a short-term bear trend which, according to the past, should have basically bottomed out, soon reverse course, and BTC will be back to making ATHs in a few months.
...OR we're getting closer and closer to Thanksgiving Dinner.
This is why risk management is imperative and prediction is a sucker's game.
Don't get me wrong...I think there is a lot of money to be made in cryptos and BTC and that this tech could change the world. BUT this multi-year BTC climb has also blinded folks to the true amount of risk they are taking on. There are alot of turkeys that believe that the price just has to keep going up and up and up. And it will...until it doesn't.
Note
![Can you recognize the differences ? [2.0]](https://s3.tradingview.com/i/ibiccxg8_mid.png)
2013-2014 looks very similar to what we are seeing now. A similar drop would put today's BTC into the 5K range... Oh, but things are different now you say. That was 4 whole years ago you say. Well yeah, things are different...until they're not. Better to always be prepared for the worst and not be surprised. At the very minimum, at least have a strategy in place in case prices do continue to drop.
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