Where do we go from here?
If you're looking at this in terms of market cycles in correlation with halvings... These are my opinions in an attempt to pick the top 3 most likely scenarios for the next 12-13 months. Please provide feedback as this is not about ego, it's more of a thought exercise.
The 2 vertical lines are the window/time frame for exiting. The diagonal lines represent the tops of the previous 2 market cycles. Not in any particular order are what I consider the 3 most likely scenarios...
1. The theory of diminishing returns applies. Bitcoin is becoming larger and less volatile. It is possible that this market cycle will not break past the red line projections. If this is true then the next market cycle may see less than 100% return.
Conclusion--market cycle has already peaked.
Projection: bleed-off of BTC price to approximately
73K before starting into the next bull market cycle. Start buying again in about 2 years.
2. Everything the same as 1 except
Conclusion--market cycle has not yet peaked.
Projection: 3-4 months of pain or longer if the bleed is slow. Tops out by the end of next year between 114k and 130k.
3. We are on the verge of government adoption and regulatory clarity in the USA and several other countries.
Conclusion--market cycle has not yet peaked.
Projection: A steep pull back over the next 3-4 months to meet the fast moving average bringing BTC price as low as 80k-75k before violently snapping up as we see the gears of legislation starting to move, breaking the projection from the previous 2 cycles driving BTC price beyond 200k by the end of next year.
But those are just my thoughts. What do you think?
The 2 vertical lines are the window/time frame for exiting. The diagonal lines represent the tops of the previous 2 market cycles. Not in any particular order are what I consider the 3 most likely scenarios...
1. The theory of diminishing returns applies. Bitcoin is becoming larger and less volatile. It is possible that this market cycle will not break past the red line projections. If this is true then the next market cycle may see less than 100% return.
Conclusion--market cycle has already peaked.
Projection: bleed-off of BTC price to approximately
73K before starting into the next bull market cycle. Start buying again in about 2 years.2. Everything the same as 1 except
Conclusion--market cycle has not yet peaked.
Projection: 3-4 months of pain or longer if the bleed is slow. Tops out by the end of next year between 114k and 130k.
3. We are on the verge of government adoption and regulatory clarity in the USA and several other countries.
Conclusion--market cycle has not yet peaked.
Projection: A steep pull back over the next 3-4 months to meet the fast moving average bringing BTC price as low as 80k-75k before violently snapping up as we see the gears of legislation starting to move, breaking the projection from the previous 2 cycles driving BTC price beyond 200k by the end of next year.
But those are just my thoughts. What do you think?
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.