Hey everyone! It's important to note that sometimes not releasing a call is a call in and of itself. The market is for transferring money from the patient to the impatient and if you lack clear, defined signals for a long or short position it's just best not to enter a position at all. Bitcoin is trending at the bottom of the 200 Daily MA Containment Zone and the mean period volatility is attempting to accommodate this downtrend. Remember, price distributions are not a static but actually multi dynamic; they grow and shrink, rise and fall. As such, with price trending downwards and at a reduced volatility, our mean period volatility on the 200 Daily MA is liable to shrink and turn it's nose downward. As such, if we were to look for a long position at this time we would need to see sustained, defined support at this current price level or a significant bounce.
This statistically relevant price point attracts the eyes of institutional investors and I'd like to see reduced volume at this time, as this would indicate that the people with the money, interest, and resources to push the price down further no longer find the value in doing so. While a low leverage long position at this time would be very safe, downward moves at this time (and I'm talking sustained, mid to high volume selling, not just wicks,) would indicate that the larger institutional players still have it in their interest to drive the price down further. Again there is long term historical data from the currency and forex markets suggesting that this price level is statistically relevant to larger players due to Chebyshev's theorem's application in longer term trend analysis. After a return into the daily 200 MA Containment Zone, price trending at the bottom of said zone at low volume will indicate support. I've linked a chart of the GBPUSD chart to indicate this and while it does show the monthly chart, the application and parallelity of the data holds true due to the increased volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
imgur.com/a/o9SkBhf
So Dad Shark, what would we need to see in order to enter a long position on bitcoin?
1. Lower volatility and volume after an upward move from this price point
2. A return into the four hour, 200 MA containment zone
3. The probability volatility of said containment zone would need to expand, indicating bullishness
Don't know what that means? Don't fret, as I'll be sure to keep you updated if these conditions are met! Until then, it's patient watching and macro to micro analysis from the long term to the short term trends. If you're reading this, it means you haven't capitulated. I'm not in this market for the long term market trends, but the associated MARKET volatility of cryptocurrency. Admittedly, I could care less about the long term trend of bitcoin. The sooner we go into a long term bear or bull market the better. All you need to do is have a reality adjustment by changing your market bias to match the market sentiment. If we're in a bear market, I'll announce short calls. If we're in a bull market, i'll announce longs. It's all about adaptivity, remember, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. As such, don't project your viewpoint onto the market, don't listen to what other people tell you about the market, but see what the market tells you about other people.
This statistically relevant price point attracts the eyes of institutional investors and I'd like to see reduced volume at this time, as this would indicate that the people with the money, interest, and resources to push the price down further no longer find the value in doing so. While a low leverage long position at this time would be very safe, downward moves at this time (and I'm talking sustained, mid to high volume selling, not just wicks,) would indicate that the larger institutional players still have it in their interest to drive the price down further. Again there is long term historical data from the currency and forex markets suggesting that this price level is statistically relevant to larger players due to Chebyshev's theorem's application in longer term trend analysis. After a return into the daily 200 MA Containment Zone, price trending at the bottom of said zone at low volume will indicate support. I've linked a chart of the GBPUSD chart to indicate this and while it does show the monthly chart, the application and parallelity of the data holds true due to the increased volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
imgur.com/a/o9SkBhf
So Dad Shark, what would we need to see in order to enter a long position on bitcoin?
1. Lower volatility and volume after an upward move from this price point
2. A return into the four hour, 200 MA containment zone
3. The probability volatility of said containment zone would need to expand, indicating bullishness
Don't know what that means? Don't fret, as I'll be sure to keep you updated if these conditions are met! Until then, it's patient watching and macro to micro analysis from the long term to the short term trends. If you're reading this, it means you haven't capitulated. I'm not in this market for the long term market trends, but the associated MARKET volatility of cryptocurrency. Admittedly, I could care less about the long term trend of bitcoin. The sooner we go into a long term bear or bull market the better. All you need to do is have a reality adjustment by changing your market bias to match the market sentiment. If we're in a bear market, I'll announce short calls. If we're in a bull market, i'll announce longs. It's all about adaptivity, remember, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. As such, don't project your viewpoint onto the market, don't listen to what other people tell you about the market, but see what the market tells you about other people.
FREE HOUR LONG LESSON HERE!
youtu.be/WJUo858bEQE
INDICATOR AND LESSON ACCESS!
Website: sharkcharts.live
Discord. Large community of veteran traders! Join us!
discord.gg/Re4VXDt
youtu.be/WJUo858bEQE
INDICATOR AND LESSON ACCESS!
Website: sharkcharts.live
Discord. Large community of veteran traders! Join us!
discord.gg/Re4VXDt
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
FREE HOUR LONG LESSON HERE!
youtu.be/WJUo858bEQE
INDICATOR AND LESSON ACCESS!
Website: sharkcharts.live
Discord. Large community of veteran traders! Join us!
discord.gg/Re4VXDt
youtu.be/WJUo858bEQE
INDICATOR AND LESSON ACCESS!
Website: sharkcharts.live
Discord. Large community of veteran traders! Join us!
discord.gg/Re4VXDt
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.