BTC Longer Term Analysis - 7.2k then 14k (3 day chart)
Updated
So after taking a long and hard look at bitcoin and setting my ingrained and natural bullish bias aside, here is what I am looking at for bitcoin in the days ahead.
We have a bearish divergence on the 3D chart (which of course isn't always right, the bullish divergence on the 4H a few days ago was perfect and yet wrong). It's just an indicator with confluence of the price action I'm seeing which is all you really need to trade.
We are within this triangle where price is oscillating into a tighter and tighter range which indicates indecision in the value of bitcoin and thus will continue to trade in a smaller range until a decision is made.
Lastly, triangles like this work, and I have seen hundreds of scenarios to prove it lol.
Simply based on this, I'm lead to believe that we likely have more downside in the coming weeks, and will be looking for short entries over the next several days. I think it's likely we see a 7-7.2k bottom, though are still in a massive bull run and when we do break out of this range, should have a very nice pop upwards, with 14k being the first target.
Keep in mind these are 3 day candles so what happens in between that is less certain but I do believe this is a fairly probable scenario. As of this writing, I think we get some upside to 8.8k.-9k first before continuing down to set a low below 8.2k
This is a 4-8+ week trade. I wouldn't feel comfortable longing until mid 7k for this trade, nor would i feel comfortable shorting right here either.
If you want to add some fundamentals to the mix, we have the halvening in a couple years, lightning network continuing to develop and it has only become mainstream and well known within the last couple years. Lots more fundamentals than I know or will comment on but everything put together does seem to mesh will with this chart.
Let's get that $$!
We have a bearish divergence on the 3D chart (which of course isn't always right, the bullish divergence on the 4H a few days ago was perfect and yet wrong). It's just an indicator with confluence of the price action I'm seeing which is all you really need to trade.
We are within this triangle where price is oscillating into a tighter and tighter range which indicates indecision in the value of bitcoin and thus will continue to trade in a smaller range until a decision is made.
Lastly, triangles like this work, and I have seen hundreds of scenarios to prove it lol.
Simply based on this, I'm lead to believe that we likely have more downside in the coming weeks, and will be looking for short entries over the next several days. I think it's likely we see a 7-7.2k bottom, though are still in a massive bull run and when we do break out of this range, should have a very nice pop upwards, with 14k being the first target.
Keep in mind these are 3 day candles so what happens in between that is less certain but I do believe this is a fairly probable scenario. As of this writing, I think we get some upside to 8.8k.-9k first before continuing down to set a low below 8.2k
This is a 4-8+ week trade. I wouldn't feel comfortable longing until mid 7k for this trade, nor would i feel comfortable shorting right here either.
If you want to add some fundamentals to the mix, we have the halvening in a couple years, lightning network continuing to develop and it has only become mainstream and well known within the last couple years. Lots more fundamentals than I know or will comment on but everything put together does seem to mesh will with this chart.
Let's get that $$!
Note
*Correction - low of 7k-7.2k not 8.2kNote
Still on track almost exactly as planned.Note
Like clockwork so far.Trade closed: target reached
Trade active
I am currently out of position, however, am waiting to see what the next dip looks like. It's possible we finally bottomed at 7040 (target was 7-7.2k, 2 weeks ago, not too bad), however, there's no way to say that with over 50% confidence yet so I will just be watching to see how price action continues to react at 7.5k and 7k. If we have a falling out of the triangle, the plan for this trade will be nullified. If we have a strong close above 7.6k on the daily on high volume, there's a good chance I'll be looking for reentry on dips. Will just need to wait and see.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.