It's me again, and the crypto market is in a state of panic. We've exited the consolidation phase, indicating bearishness and a distribution phase. However, as I mentioned in my previous post, the market remains in an uptrend, and the Halving and ETF still offer significant bullishness.
According to Elliot wave principles, a major retracement is logical given the strong uptrend since November 2022. In such trends, prices often retrace to:
- 23.6% for a minor correction
- 38.2% for a moderate correction
- 50% for a significant correction
Bitcoin recently retraced to 38.2% and filled a high demand zone. Does this mean we'll see a recovery? I can't say for sure, but I've identified two potential zones where the price may visit. We've already seen the $52,000 zone, and there's a minimal chance of reaching $42,000.
Two reasons support this minimal chance:
1. Bitcoin would need to drop by another 15% in the next week or two, which is unlikely and would put us below the November channel.
2. The formation of a Cup and Handle pattern, which typically tests old highs and incurs selling pressure from investors who previously bought at those levels. This selling pressure can lead to consolidation and a downtrend for days, weeks, or even months before advancing higher. The handle often finds support at the 50% retracement in a rounded shape.
Considering the factors mentioned earlier, it's reasonable to conclude that we may be experiencing either:
1. The Bottom handle of the Cup and Handle pattern, which could precede a potential breakout.
2. The onset of a Recovery phase, marking a turning point in the market trend.
In either case, this presents a crucial moment for the crypto market, and it's essential to monitor developments closely to determine the next move.
Feel free to ask questions, and as always, don't forget to like and engage with the content!
BTCUSD 
BTCUSDT
According to Elliot wave principles, a major retracement is logical given the strong uptrend since November 2022. In such trends, prices often retrace to:
- 23.6% for a minor correction
- 38.2% for a moderate correction
- 50% for a significant correction
Bitcoin recently retraced to 38.2% and filled a high demand zone. Does this mean we'll see a recovery? I can't say for sure, but I've identified two potential zones where the price may visit. We've already seen the $52,000 zone, and there's a minimal chance of reaching $42,000.
Two reasons support this minimal chance:
1. Bitcoin would need to drop by another 15% in the next week or two, which is unlikely and would put us below the November channel.
2. The formation of a Cup and Handle pattern, which typically tests old highs and incurs selling pressure from investors who previously bought at those levels. This selling pressure can lead to consolidation and a downtrend for days, weeks, or even months before advancing higher. The handle often finds support at the 50% retracement in a rounded shape.
Considering the factors mentioned earlier, it's reasonable to conclude that we may be experiencing either:
1. The Bottom handle of the Cup and Handle pattern, which could precede a potential breakout.
2. The onset of a Recovery phase, marking a turning point in the market trend.
In either case, this presents a crucial moment for the crypto market, and it's essential to monitor developments closely to determine the next move.
Feel free to ask questions, and as always, don't forget to like and engage with the content!
BTCUSD BTCUSDT 
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.