Bitcoin
Updated

BTC Daily TA Cautiously Bullish

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BTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% BTC, 30% Cash. *WEEKEND RALLY WATCH. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated today that though inflation is coming down they still have a long way to go before bringing Core PCE down to the Fed's 2% target; she also stated that her base case for September 21st is a 50bps rate hike and that she sees the EOY FFR being just under 3.5%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin mentioned today that until the Fed sees a sustained period of inflation under control (by seeing 'real' borrowing costs move above zero), that they will have to continue raising FFR into 'restrictive territory'. As expected, they will be watching July PCE numbers on 08/26, the August Employment Situation on 09/02, August CPI on 09/13 and August PPI on 09/14 before the big decision on 09/21. After announcing a partnership with Coinbase last week, BlackRock (the world's largest asset manager) announced yesterday that they would be opening a private trust to provide institutional clients with direct exposure to Bitcoin. Key dates next week: US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 830am EST 08/16; 5th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 915am EST 08/16; US Retail Sales at 830am EST 08/17.* Price is currently attempting to break above $24180 minor resistance; breaking above this level would confirm an Ascending Triangle breakout which would likely take Price to $27-28k (which coincides with the descending trendline from November 2021). Volume remains Moderate and fairly balanced between buyer and seller dominance recently, indicative of a consolidative period before moving higher. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $22750, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 60 as it attempts to reclaim support at the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 and flip 57 resistance to support as well. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 87 with no signs of peak formation as it attempts to flip 78 resistance to support. MACD remains bullish and is trending up slightly at 474 but risks reverting to a bearish crossover at 375 the more that it trends sideways; it's currently hovering just above 313 support and the next resistance is at 890. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 20 as Price continues to attempt to break above $24180 minor resistance, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to breakout above $24180 minor resistance and turn it to support, it will likely test the Ascending Triangle breakout target of ~$28k as resistance which should coincide with the descending trendline from November 2021. However, if Price is rejected here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the Ascending Triangle at 27K as support before potentially falling lower to retest the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at $20k psychological support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $22.5k.
Note
Correction: However, if Price is rejected here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the Ascending Triangle at *~23K* as support...

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