Long

I don't dislike BTC price forecasts. It's how they are made.

Anytime a forecast on BTC is made using methods outside of the accepted ones or making forecasting outside of the popular models, invariably the same floods of comments come.

People always assume you must;

Not know about (the thing we all know about).
Hate BTC (or whatever the thing is)
Want the world to burn
[/list

Some people are like that. Others are just using different methods of analysis and explaining what would happen if these patterns played out.

The problem with crypto is people express themselves like they know. Like the models they are using can not fail. This is pushed on people aggressively to the point where many people believe these are truths rather than models that are currently being tested. It takes a long time to determine if there is or is not a 4 year cycle, for instance.

This is likely to end in people getting hurt. Whatever the immediate term outcome. Obviously if markets were to crash from here people with false beliefs that could not happen would suffer the results of that - but it's actually worse when the models appear to work. Because if you do not think of other reasons, this can reenforce a false belief these are infallible.

People point to ways that the halving could have forecast previous moves in BTC. These are compelling and worth tracking as possible indicators going forward but it's possible that something else drives price. This is a coincidence. Although it reaffirms your faith in the model, it is not actually evidence the model will work in future.

It equally possible to explain how moves in BTC could have been forecast using other methods. Simple correlation to indices. Common trend patterns. Meeting and reacting to important SR levels. If these things are entirely ignored as possibilities then it will be entirely missed when these things change - but that change will result in a failure of the BTC models.

For example, the BTC low came at the 76 fib.

Totally standard thing that happens in all different markets. You do not need a cycle to predict this could be the low in a bull move. I talk about the 76 reversal all the time.

The BTC breakout can go the around where the implied halving target is using an entirely different model. Using the simple norms of a breakout heading to the 4.23 this is what we'd expected.

Then the halving predicts a pullback. This, too, is entirely inside of the expectations of the common fib reaction.

Then new cycle.

And by this time, people are entirely sold on the FACT this rally happened because the halving cycle. Not simply is ran through the expected fib breakout zones and not simply because SPX rocketed (SPX would be booming if this happened, probably). Not because this or that monetary policy giving risk on assets a boom ... only because the halving.

But then all of the things that had worked 100% perfectly for forecasting all of the major bull and bear swings up to now, would be implying this.

And if we trade to around $250,000 and also happen to have the major pullbacks in those forecast areas, these fib norms will have made a more accurate forecast of the BTC move that the halving cycles did.

When you insist you know the future, you'll be easily fooled into thinking you do. But believing more and more you know the future does not mean you actually do. It just means you're getting into a more and and more risky situation. Where you only have to be wrong once and will sleepwalk right into that. Because you know everything will be fine ...

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For what it's worth, I think broadly risk assets are now at a stage where either there is a huge reversal or the following trends are exceptional. Much stronger than the existing ones. If SPX makes the breakout of its macro resistance level, BTC 250K makes perfect sense to me. And I'm more than happy to see that happen.

Or not. Really. To be blunt, I don't care.

All I want to do is work out the decision levels and have plans ready to deal with all the different possible outcomes. Because I know I do not know the future. I know even when I am getting things right it does not mean the next thing won't be wrong. I don't have an emotional attachment to any of this. I bet on levels and change my bets based on reactions.

The only thing I dislike about the BTC forecast is the fact it's stated as if the future is known, forever. And I think that will fail spectacularly. Not or eventually - both suck for believers.

Later sucks more.

There is no way for any of us to accurately be sure we know why the market did a certain thing. If we rally to 250K, this will be proven. Because people can say they called it because the halving and I can say it's just a standard breakout inside of the models I have documented here and shown the historic evidence of.

Both of us can "Prove" we are right by citing the price move. We'll both have a great case. At least one of us will be wrong. Maybe both of us.

The reality is even after the market has moved we don't know why. We know reasons presented and we know what happened. That's it.

There's nothing in the halving thesis that can not be easily explained using other things that have existed for decades before. The old ideas explain the moves just as efficiently - or more.

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