Key Decision Point Looms Ahead
Updated
As per my previous analysis; I have closed my longs from 96xx at 9850 in profit. The reason being is that it looks like we are set to test 9685-9725ish again. As you can see from the below screenshot; we have actually formed the same fractal as we have been trading within our fractal - just at a much smaller scale. This indicates that we will likely head down to 9685-9725 before rising back up to 9900 and then going back down to 9800. This is highlighted by the blue box and where I plan on scalping some trades.
I am currently erring towards 60% chance of Bullish Double Top / 40% chance we break to the down side of this pattern; as both scenarios are equally as valid. Therefore I will be moving stop losses for longs to be much tighter at 9605. I will also hedge with some shorts from 9850-9900 levels with a stop loss around 10065.
A break to the down side target is low 8000's. A break to the upside target is initially 11,100; with a view that we are likely to form a double top around 13,500; and it looks like we will have our decision within 48 hours or so. For low risk traders, if we break to the down side; wait for the retest before going short.
Just for the record - as unpopular an opinion as it is... I am overall bearish based on what the higher time frame charts are telling us. I would love to reach a double top; however if this doesn't occur then I will be happy to short from current levels. I believe the bottom will be reached by mid-June next year and will be somewhere around 1850 and 3500. I will of course be happy to change my mind when the charts tell me otherwise!
I am currently erring towards 60% chance of Bullish Double Top / 40% chance we break to the down side of this pattern; as both scenarios are equally as valid. Therefore I will be moving stop losses for longs to be much tighter at 9605. I will also hedge with some shorts from 9850-9900 levels with a stop loss around 10065.
A break to the down side target is low 8000's. A break to the upside target is initially 11,100; with a view that we are likely to form a double top around 13,500; and it looks like we will have our decision within 48 hours or so. For low risk traders, if we break to the down side; wait for the retest before going short.
Just for the record - as unpopular an opinion as it is... I am overall bearish based on what the higher time frame charts are telling us. I would love to reach a double top; however if this doesn't occur then I will be happy to short from current levels. I believe the bottom will be reached by mid-June next year and will be somewhere around 1850 and 3500. I will of course be happy to change my mind when the charts tell me otherwise!
Note
We have had a strong break to the upside of the smaller geometric fractal (ascending triangle). This has broken us through the light blue resistance of the large descending broadening wedge pattern. This is a bullish sign. It's likely we range close to the smaller triangle resistance for short while (perhaps retesting the descending wedge resistance as new support) before pushing through and up to the larger triangle resistance where our target is. Stops from 9696 average entry have been moved into profit at 9896. Trade closed: stop reached
And the decision has been made! Longs were stopped out in profit. Shorts are in progress. New update coming shortly.
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