Short

Updated

Almost perfect plan worked,Bitcoin to 10.000/10.500 before crash

Bitcoin almost did exactly what i expected it would do, as i described in detail in my previous chart (read it for more info). I though we would drop to the 9000 with a max of 8800, to form a right shoulder and go up towards the 10.000. But it formed a double bottom at 8400.
The move we saw this morning, is what i said would happen, short covering. They will try to do the same with a break of the 9500, allot of stops are built up there, around the 9600 probably, so if they can push it through, we should see a quick move above the 10.000. I will build a very big short position when we get close to the 10K. Target is 10.500, but i think it will fall short at around 10.200. Whales, manipulators, stakeholders, whoever they are, will try to unload as many Bitcoins as they can again at those 10K+ levels.

For more info, read my previous few charts with all the many updates!

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We should stay above these 2 levels. At best, the higher one

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I am off half a day, good luck

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Here we can see that the higher green line worked a few times as support and resistance. But it stayed above the bigger one. I think this correction up can take a bit longer than i said first. But depends on how fast we go towards the 10K

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This pattern says we should stay above the green line, but i expect a drop towards the 9200/900, scaring long positions. From there probably another fast rally up towards the 10K

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You guys remember i said once or twice, i just could not figure out why, that the trustee of MT. Gox made that announcement of the dumps he made and is planning to dump more. Now with the latest news about this, it became clear in a second. They are turning it into something positive Of course it's still not logical, but as this writer turns it into something possible, probably more people can look at it that way. They are actually blaming him for the crashes from the highs. While saying that, they actually explain why Bitcoin crashed and that if MT. Gox hack had never happened, therefore this lawyer would never have the extreme amounts of Bitcoin, therefore there would never be this selling force pushing the market into those big crashes the last few months. So giving the impression that Bitcoin's price should normally be much higher. It would be really sick if i am wright. i know and i also think it's a bit far fetched, but who knows in this manipulative crypto world
newsbtc.com/2018/03/11/bitcoin-price-will-likely-surge-as-mt-gox-sell-off-paused-until-september/

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I am having doubts if it will drop below the 9400. That small bull trap, where it almost seemed to be rallying out that bull flag, it dropped back in towards that green area. That level still holds and could hold. Anyway, still sidelines so it doesn't matter what it does, as long as we don't crash yet and i have missed out my entry points :)

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Seen this picture many many times since the 6K bounce. This picture says we have set the low and should go up. But i am not betting on it and staying flat untill we reach the 10Kish levels to short this market

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I got the first of my short position in at 9850, i will build up to at least 10.200. If we dont get there, i will probably add if we drop below the 9000/9500 again.

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Funny to see how people (analysts) have already turned bullish again :) they don’t understand that when a key support level gets broken (9400) it becomes a resistance, but it’s much less important. Time will tell

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The bigger picture. For my bearish view (in time AND price) it should stay below the red area. That's the breakout level of that big H&S i showed a few days ago. It's not a textbook H&S, but when you look at the volume, it does confirm it. This chart is from Bitstamp, but the Bitfinex chart shows the same volume picture confirming my theory

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Bitfinex chart, same volume picture.
That big volume bar conforming the breakout below the neckline. It's 100% guarantee of course, but there are several conformations.

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I have added some more at 9780, have 40% of my BIG short position now. I still hope we get above the 10K, but i have a feeling we might not even get there. Could be going sideways all day, if so, than chances increase we go higher.

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My gut feeling works most time if i say so myself. This strange (small) dump does not mean that much. As long as we stay above that other green line, short term bullish momentum is in play.
My decision why i had added early at 9780, was is saw bigger sell volume bars than buys, and the Alts show a more bearish picture on the shorter time frame.
I still hope we go higher, but if not, i still have 40% in of my big short position

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Very bad this, when i zoom in. No bounce at all. Almost 90% guarantee we make another wave down

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Look at that green, within the orange. Could be that we are there now. This last 4hr candle looks very bearish now. Normally it's a reversal If 9800/9900 was THE high, than it's very bad news! Maybe the 9000 could still be a support

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Even my Bitfinex trading platform cant take it, cant do anything. First time this happens. Not like Bitmex, happens several times a day over there

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If this grean support around 8700/8800 breaks, than it's almost certain the 8300 low will break as well

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Probably next wave down, but it is cooling down!

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Looking awesome dudes :) let’s break the 8700

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The 8700 has held, for now. There is small bounce, but it still looks weak. So 80% chance we see another drop to the 8750 or maybe even below it

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If we stay below the 9100, it's extremely weak and we will drop much more. If it breaks the 9100, the drop can be delayed. At this moment, i give it a 75% chance we drop below the 8750 and go towards the 8350

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This is the last resistance to keep bearish momentum at the max.

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Its clearly not a very meaningful channel, that 9000 still acts as support, was the neckline of that small inverse H&S. If it stays above, we will see more sideways action. For now these levels are probably the ones that matter, above the 9160 we could go towards the 9300 again, below the 9000 we will test the 8700/8800 again

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: I just went short at 9135, to be clear, this is a separate trade from my other position. It's own stop and target. Stop only 70 points above it

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For the short term, the bearish speed is over now. Will go more sideways i think.
That small trade i made is already over :)

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For now, it seems to have made an inverse H&S. If it stays above that neckline ofcourse!. But i dont think it will reach it's target completely!

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Now i see many big sell orders happening. But there were many 50 BTC buy orders in the book, very close to each other. That's a bullish signs, but if the dumping continues. I do not really know right now what to make of it.

Price dropped again below that neckline, it's not a real H&S, but still something NOT to ignore.

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The bigger picture

botje11

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