🎯 TL;DR
A four-week contracting triangle is coiling price just under $105 K.
🗺️ Chart at a Glance
Element Detail
🔧 Technical Internals
Momentum 🟣
Structure 🔵
Three successive lower-highs (113 K → 110 K → 109 K) tighten the squeeze.
Price is riding the underside of the triangle, a common “kiss-of-death” before resolution.
🔍 Fundamental / Flow Backdrop
Net: structural sellers (miners, profit-takers) vs. structural buyers (ETFs).
Right now, technicals side with the sellers.
📈 Trade Map (3-8 Week Horizon)
🛠️ Execution Idea (Not Financial Advice)
Trigger: 6-hour close < $103 500 confirms breakdown.
Entry Bias: Short retest of 104.8 K-105.5 K.
Targets:
Stop / Invalidation: 6-hour close > $106 000 and Quantum RSI flips back to green.
A four-week contracting triangle is coiling price just under $105 K.
- Measured move ⇒ $100 506
- Both W.ARITAS Quantum RSI flash strong selling pressure while QSP shows a weak trend.
- On-chain: miners dumped ≈30 000 BTC since late May, yet spot-ETF inflows have stayed positive eight days straight.
- Base case: price breaks lower into $100 K-97 K, where I expect a sharp bounce.
🗺️ Chart at a Glance
Element Detail
- Pattern Symmetrical / contracting triangle (late-Apr → present)
- Immediate pivot $104 800 – reclaimed as resistance (red circle)
- Target 1 $100 506 – triangle measured move
- Demand block $96 900 – $95 000 – weekly support & June VWAP
- Invalidation 6-h close > $106 000
🔧 Technical Internals
Momentum 🟣
- Quantum RSI: −23 / −41 and falling → sellers dominate.
- QSP: muted blue histogram sub-zero → trend itself is still weak, so expect whipsaws near support.
Structure 🔵
Three successive lower-highs (113 K → 110 K → 109 K) tighten the squeeze.
Price is riding the underside of the triangle, a common “kiss-of-death” before resolution.
🔍 Fundamental / Flow Backdrop
- Miners on the offer – Wallet balances down ~30 000 BTC over 20 days (≈ $3.1 B)
Source: IntoTheBlock via CoinDesk, 19 Jun 2025 - ETF demand refuses to quit – U.S. spot ETFs pulled $388.3 M on 18 Jun, marking 8 consecutive inflow days
Source: CoinTelegraph, Cryptonomist, 19 Jun 2025 - Regulatory clarity incoming – U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan stablecoin bill on 17 Jun; House vote next
Source: Reuters, 17 Jun 2025
Net: structural sellers (miners, profit-takers) vs. structural buyers (ETFs).
Right now, technicals side with the sellers.
📈 Trade Map (3-8 Week Horizon)
- 106 000 – 104 800 Triangle top & failed breakout zone Bias flips bullish only on sustained reclaim
- 100 506 Measured-move target + psychological $100 K Primary TP / bounce watch
- 96 900 – 95 000 Weekly demand, June VWAP Secondary TP if 100 K gives way
- 110 000 + Pattern invalidation Opens road to 113 K-115 K ATH cluster
🛠️ Execution Idea (Not Financial Advice)
Trigger: 6-hour close < $103 500 confirms breakdown.
Entry Bias: Short retest of 104.8 K-105.5 K.
Targets:
- TP1 – $100 500
- TP2 – $97 000 (only if momentum stays bearish)
Stop / Invalidation: 6-hour close > $106 000 and Quantum RSI flips back to green.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Our Telegram : moneywizardmike.t.me
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.