Whales/traders Behavior Analysis - Trap in a trap, trapception
Updated
Still expecting an inverse head and shoulders pattern? Don't be naive. Big boys know what you are thinking! Like I said in my last post, whales are TA experts and they often intentionally draw some patterns as fuel for your Lambo fantasy.
Authors here almost never use 1-min, 3-min, or 5-min charts because whatever patterns shown on these short-time-frame charts are deceptive. I completely agree. DO NOT DO TA ON THESE CHARTS. However, these charts are very useful if you want to follow whales' footprints. You can easily identify volume created by whales on 1-min chart. If it is huge buying volume and the price just fell on a critical support level, it is likely that whales want to stay on this price level or higher for a couple of hours before next dump. Also, identifying whales' volume will help you judge the real volume shown on the 4-hour chart - not all volume comes from real buyers, whales can wash trade to make the volume looks much higher than it actually is. Maybe someone can make a new indicator which can exclude outlying 1-min volume from the charts? That would be super helpful for trading in the crypto market.
My whale behavior analysis gives you a big picture of what is happening and what is going to happen. I am providing you a different perspective toward how the market moves. BUT this type of analysis is not accurate in short-term by itself unless you have insider information. Most dumps/pumps are coordinated and only whales know when they will happen.
I made a prediction that the price will fall to 4k on this Sunday or Monday. Now it seems unlikely to happen. Whales are patiently selling their bags. It seems to me that they would like to create as much hope as possible to unload at higher price levels. I do not know when they will start the real dump. Maybe in two days or maybe in two hours. So I am trading only very small amount of money lately and stop with 1-2% profit. There is no point hopping on the train if it is still not clear where the train is going to.
In short-term, the price may drop to a lower support zone around 9300 and bounce a little bit before going further downward. And then we have 8200 as next strong support. However, I do not expect these supports hold if whales really want to dump. The risk of trading is very high at the moment.
At last, check bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-ltc-ema7.html and you will see that the number of transactions on BTC ETH and LTC are not moving much. It is only a matter of time before bitcoin and the whole market drop to a lower low if we have no new blood coming in.
Authors here almost never use 1-min, 3-min, or 5-min charts because whatever patterns shown on these short-time-frame charts are deceptive. I completely agree. DO NOT DO TA ON THESE CHARTS. However, these charts are very useful if you want to follow whales' footprints. You can easily identify volume created by whales on 1-min chart. If it is huge buying volume and the price just fell on a critical support level, it is likely that whales want to stay on this price level or higher for a couple of hours before next dump. Also, identifying whales' volume will help you judge the real volume shown on the 4-hour chart - not all volume comes from real buyers, whales can wash trade to make the volume looks much higher than it actually is. Maybe someone can make a new indicator which can exclude outlying 1-min volume from the charts? That would be super helpful for trading in the crypto market.
My whale behavior analysis gives you a big picture of what is happening and what is going to happen. I am providing you a different perspective toward how the market moves. BUT this type of analysis is not accurate in short-term by itself unless you have insider information. Most dumps/pumps are coordinated and only whales know when they will happen.
I made a prediction that the price will fall to 4k on this Sunday or Monday. Now it seems unlikely to happen. Whales are patiently selling their bags. It seems to me that they would like to create as much hope as possible to unload at higher price levels. I do not know when they will start the real dump. Maybe in two days or maybe in two hours. So I am trading only very small amount of money lately and stop with 1-2% profit. There is no point hopping on the train if it is still not clear where the train is going to.
In short-term, the price may drop to a lower support zone around 9300 and bounce a little bit before going further downward. And then we have 8200 as next strong support. However, I do not expect these supports hold if whales really want to dump. The risk of trading is very high at the moment.
At last, check bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-ltc-ema7.html and you will see that the number of transactions on BTC ETH and LTC are not moving much. It is only a matter of time before bitcoin and the whole market drop to a lower low if we have no new blood coming in.
Note
Check bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-ltc.htmlOne more interesting fact is that the number of transactions of ETH and LTC increases during the bullrun after the 6k crash. But BTC is barely used for transferring value during the same period. This supports my hypothesis that the market is now running on veterans or people who came in Dec. or Nov.
Note
As I said, it stoped right before the support 9300 and started another fake bullrun. I just sold all at 9700. Maybe it will go up a little bit more but I’d rather move to fiat before Sunday.Note
I don't expect any support between 8200 and 9300 will hold well if a real dump come today and tomorrow. I will not trade any bounce these two days. You can trade at your own risk.Note
So 9300 support held well again. Bulls still have hope. But the thin volume won’t take them to anywhere near their moon.Note
Just learn some bullish news from The People's Daily (official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party). This may lead to another bullrun. Let's see how market reacts to it. I am neutral now.Note
By "neutral" I mean short-term. The market won't be bullish until new money comes in. The volume is dying. And the market will turn bearish quickly once 9300 support zone is broken through.Note
Whales just pumped the price. It seems we gonna have one or two peaceful days.Note
Volume keeps going lower. Check the arrows I drew for step 1. That will be where we are if the volume stays low today and tomorrow.Note
Just a quick update. I see a little big upward movement in number of transaction on three main coins. bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-ltc.html . Good sign. About this bullrun. I don’t think the inverse H&S will complete. They will probably drop it right before it is completed (around 11000). If you didn’t buy below 9500, don’t risk it. You can buy in after seeing the breakout after the pattern is formed. It will be much safer and still very profitable. Or after they drop it to the bottom. The bottom will not be as low as I thought if we had new money coming in. Now I think it will be profitable to buy in around or below 8200.
We don't trade patterns. We draw them.
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