BitcoinShort
Filtering Out The Noise: A Broad Picture?
Updated
It has been quite a challenge making sense of the price movements in this market, with continuous short and long squeezes appearing from out of nowhere.
In this view, we overlay Elliott Waves on the major price movements on the 4h chart. There are some clear wave counts, though the more common wave length ratios are somewhat shortened. In particular, the anti-corrective B wave, which is typically quite a large bull trap, seems to have been checked to be quite shallow, intent as the market was to correct lower, quicker. Also, the typical 1.618 fib. ratios of 3rd waves are somewhat shortened as well.
Some things to note: price has just moved below one of the long-term trend lines which is the 1st line of major support that has been broken. Also, a large bullish bear wedge has formed at the end of wave 1, which should contribute to realizing wave 2.
Wave 3 is aligned with the second important support level corresponding to a previous support level of the "Great Correction" from 20k to 6k, specifically $6425.
The 3rd level of support is the low of the Great Correction corresponding to 6k.
The 4th level of support corresponds to a support zone prior to the Great Correction at $5400.
And finally, the broad long-term trend line corresponds to the final major level of support. This is a hard support, and corresponds to the 5k price territory.
As mentioned previously, a large bullish wedge has formed at what appears to be the end of wave 1. The RSI also shows clear price divergence on two separate occassions. This strongly suggests a temporary reversal is imminent.
That said, with the blatant price manipulation that is rampant in this market at present, almost anything is possible. But I do think that the manipulators only exaggerate natural market trends in order to further capitalize from them and milk them for all they're worth. It would be too costly, even for deep pockets, to go against the market outright, except for very short-term squeezes and head-fakes.
Target: 5k-6.4k
In this view, we overlay Elliott Waves on the major price movements on the 4h chart. There are some clear wave counts, though the more common wave length ratios are somewhat shortened. In particular, the anti-corrective B wave, which is typically quite a large bull trap, seems to have been checked to be quite shallow, intent as the market was to correct lower, quicker. Also, the typical 1.618 fib. ratios of 3rd waves are somewhat shortened as well.
Some things to note: price has just moved below one of the long-term trend lines which is the 1st line of major support that has been broken. Also, a large bullish bear wedge has formed at the end of wave 1, which should contribute to realizing wave 2.
Wave 3 is aligned with the second important support level corresponding to a previous support level of the "Great Correction" from 20k to 6k, specifically $6425.
The 3rd level of support is the low of the Great Correction corresponding to 6k.
The 4th level of support corresponds to a support zone prior to the Great Correction at $5400.
And finally, the broad long-term trend line corresponds to the final major level of support. This is a hard support, and corresponds to the 5k price territory.
As mentioned previously, a large bullish wedge has formed at what appears to be the end of wave 1. The RSI also shows clear price divergence on two separate occassions. This strongly suggests a temporary reversal is imminent.
That said, with the blatant price manipulation that is rampant in this market at present, almost anything is possible. But I do think that the manipulators only exaggerate natural market trends in order to further capitalize from them and milk them for all they're worth. It would be too costly, even for deep pockets, to go against the market outright, except for very short-term squeezes and head-fakes.
Target: 5k-6.4k
Note
Here is the bullish wedge I was referring to above:Note
Small bull flag may see us pop from $7550 to $7800 or so.Note
Previous bull flag was invalidated. But a bullish wedge has formed, plus Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash have already popped (the latter having formed and broken out of a strong bullish flag). Looks like Bitcoin may be actually lagging behind this time, and a pop upward may be forthcoming...Note
So it appears Bitcoin was indeed lagging behind the other top cryptos by market cap, and eventually did break out of it's bullish wedge, but not as intensely as did Ethereum, and especially not as intensely as Bitcoin Cash. It seems Bitcoin bullish retrace is quite dampened, which suggests there is still a lot of bearish sentiment in the market. On top of this, there is a huge bearish ascending wedge forming, which suggests more downward movement will come when this bullish retrace completes.Note
We've broken through the large bearish ascending wedge, which suggests further downward movement in the short/medium term:Note
Volume is extremely low. Historically, when volume gets really low for too long, there is a sharp spike in one direction or another. I think we can expect a spike shortly. I believe it will be down, but a brief up (fake) surge is possible as well before proceeding down.Note
We are approaching the $5600 target. We might see the formation of an inverse H&S pattern, with left shoulder low at $6100, head low at $5600, and right shoulder low around $6100.Note
We are seeing RSI divergence on all time intervals, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h so could be that the low is in at $5800, and the inverse H&S pattern will form from here. Still possible it can go lower to $5600 after a brief upward correction, but I'm thinking the low might be in at $5800.Note
Okay, looks like consolidation, and an inverse flag pattern is forming, which suggests, perhaps a low is not quite yet in, and we may be heading to $5600.Note
Looks like low is in, and we are headed up. Inverse head and shoulders pattern with good volume suggests $6800 short-term price target.Note
So it looks like bears aren't finished afterall, and that we may have one more leg down. Price target around 5k-5.5k.Note
Bearish flag has formed, which could see us drop to around $5600.Note
Possible fake-out short squeeze before the drop with prices up to $5950 before dropping to $5600.Note
Whales are out in force, parting fools and everyone else from their money, by manipulating the market to do exactly the opposite of what TA suggests.Note
I am calling the low of $5755. We should now be beginning the gradual bull cycle.One inportant lesson that was learned in these markets is to avoid trading when volume is low, as the market is easily manipulated by trading bots on the part of the large exchanges (the true whales). Better to avoid looking for small gains, and instead just wait for the larger 5-10% movements, which have considerably higher volume, and are therefore less easily manipulated.
It seems that exchangse are taking both sides of the trade in order to create fake volume, especially when volume is extremely low. So be careful out there, especially in low volume markets.
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