Hello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD.
First I want to say... I have been waiting for this moment for several months now. When the Bear Flag started forming it was quite clear that a MASSIVE breakdown was imminent. BTC is now at that point. I know a lot of people are still in denial and think "there is no way it's even possible for BTC to go back to $20K!" But I assure you it is possible. Back in the early 2000's during the Dot Com Bubble Amazon went from $112 a share to $6 in a short amount of time. So yes it's absolutely possible... Look at Amazon now though, it's trading around $2,500 a share just to put things into perspective. On to the analysis.
This chart is really quite amazing to look at, you can clearly see that the breakdown has begun and as a matter of fact is VERY close to fully breaking. When you zoom out you can see how mature this Bear Flag pattern really is. If it was an immature pattern the odds of breakdown would be much lower, but with a mature pattern like this the probabilities of a breakdown are far greater.
***FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. This will have a huge impact on the markets. This analysis is strictly TA based. See my note at the bottom about this meeting for more info regarding the affect it will have.
Here are some Key points that show the breakdown has begun.
1) For the past few weeks BTC has been trending down for the majority of the time.
2) Over the past 2 weeks BTC has struggled to break above any meaningful resistance and has slowly been trending down with only small bounces at key support levels.
3) Over the past 11 days BTC has been unable to confirm above the yellow trend line which is Major Resistance.
4) 6 days ago when BTC dropped just below $38K, it touched the trend line then quickly bounced. At no point did it break below.
5) 3 days ago BTC closed below the lower trend line of the Bear Flag for the first time since January.
- As you can see for the past several weeks BTC has been in the process of breaking down.
- The past 10 days or so is where the major breakdown signals started presenting.
- It's really quite simple as to what you want to look for to confirm the breakdown... Once BTC confirms below (a full candle closes below) then the pattern is broken and the path to the technical target will begin.
So what's next for BTC?
- In the short term I still think it's possible BTC gets a small bounce off the current levels at most up to the yellow trend line just over $40K.
- If the yellow trend line is confirmed above, then that is a bullish signal and we will re assess
- Beyond that I think it's quite clear what will happen, BTC will confirm below the trend line and BTC will face Major Bearish price action over the coming months.
- The next key support level for BTC is at $34.4K
- Then at $32.8K
- BTC will most likely bounce at $34.8K but it depends how quickly it hits that level.
- $32.8K won't be as big of a bounce.
- Eventually I believe BTC will hit $20K or lower. Of course I will update everyone over the coming days and will let you know of any changes.
****FOMC Meeting Wednesday 2pm
- This meeting is about raising interest rates. The rumor is that they're planning on raising 75 basis points. I think if they do this the market will dump out of fear of recession. However the FED could decide to only raise rates 50 basis points which will be a relief to the markets and a rally could ensue. So Wednesday is a very big day for investors, either the market will dump or pump. Make sure you are ready on Wednesday and if you have any open positions be prepared to act accordingly to the news.
Please like if you found this helpful and remember you can always message me with any questions.
Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
First I want to say... I have been waiting for this moment for several months now. When the Bear Flag started forming it was quite clear that a MASSIVE breakdown was imminent. BTC is now at that point. I know a lot of people are still in denial and think "there is no way it's even possible for BTC to go back to $20K!" But I assure you it is possible. Back in the early 2000's during the Dot Com Bubble Amazon went from $112 a share to $6 in a short amount of time. So yes it's absolutely possible... Look at Amazon now though, it's trading around $2,500 a share just to put things into perspective. On to the analysis.
This chart is really quite amazing to look at, you can clearly see that the breakdown has begun and as a matter of fact is VERY close to fully breaking. When you zoom out you can see how mature this Bear Flag pattern really is. If it was an immature pattern the odds of breakdown would be much lower, but with a mature pattern like this the probabilities of a breakdown are far greater.
***FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. This will have a huge impact on the markets. This analysis is strictly TA based. See my note at the bottom about this meeting for more info regarding the affect it will have.
Here are some Key points that show the breakdown has begun.
1) For the past few weeks BTC has been trending down for the majority of the time.
2) Over the past 2 weeks BTC has struggled to break above any meaningful resistance and has slowly been trending down with only small bounces at key support levels.
3) Over the past 11 days BTC has been unable to confirm above the yellow trend line which is Major Resistance.
4) 6 days ago when BTC dropped just below $38K, it touched the trend line then quickly bounced. At no point did it break below.
5) 3 days ago BTC closed below the lower trend line of the Bear Flag for the first time since January.
- As you can see for the past several weeks BTC has been in the process of breaking down.
- The past 10 days or so is where the major breakdown signals started presenting.
- It's really quite simple as to what you want to look for to confirm the breakdown... Once BTC confirms below (a full candle closes below) then the pattern is broken and the path to the technical target will begin.
So what's next for BTC?
- In the short term I still think it's possible BTC gets a small bounce off the current levels at most up to the yellow trend line just over $40K.
- If the yellow trend line is confirmed above, then that is a bullish signal and we will re assess
- Beyond that I think it's quite clear what will happen, BTC will confirm below the trend line and BTC will face Major Bearish price action over the coming months.
- The next key support level for BTC is at $34.4K
- Then at $32.8K
- BTC will most likely bounce at $34.8K but it depends how quickly it hits that level.
- $32.8K won't be as big of a bounce.
- Eventually I believe BTC will hit $20K or lower. Of course I will update everyone over the coming days and will let you know of any changes.
****FOMC Meeting Wednesday 2pm
- This meeting is about raising interest rates. The rumor is that they're planning on raising 75 basis points. I think if they do this the market will dump out of fear of recession. However the FED could decide to only raise rates 50 basis points which will be a relief to the markets and a rally could ensue. So Wednesday is a very big day for investors, either the market will dump or pump. Make sure you are ready on Wednesday and if you have any open positions be prepared to act accordingly to the news.
Please like if you found this helpful and remember you can always message me with any questions.
Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.