Okay Bitcoin, is it going to be 4200 or 5200? Part 2

Updated

Let's continue on this page with the analysis.

I don't think i need to mention everything again from the previous analysis. As you know the 3600ish, is the key level for the bulls to break the short term bear trend from the past weeks. If they can manage to do that, the chances will be very big for bigger correction up.

I keep getting questions about if the long term low is set, but my assumption is only a big correction upwards, a big bear shake out. This market needs to show a whole lot more to even think about the bear trend being over. I just simply take things step by step. Me and my members took on a swing long position from the lows the past weekend. If i see signs that we simply continue up, we will keep it and have our long term position. If i think we will drop again, we take profit and wait for the next trade. Simple as that. I don't need to, but even more, don't want to bust my head about trying to know what the long term low is. Impossible to know upfront!

For now my assumption is a move like we had in April or July. But the 3600 needs to break. If we don't break it soon my whole assumption can be flushed through the toilet :).
Preferably it happens today, but there is a plan B as we can see on the right. That is the bears still being too strong and the bull taking a small step back and lure the bears in again with short positions. With a plan in mind to buy the price up again around the 3500 (bitfinex price), eat up all the sell orders and slowly push the price up again in the shape of a right shoulder. So actually making a bigger inverse H&S, the one i mentioned yesterday. The H&S version is healthier for a bigger correction, because the foundation would be much bigger. Would show much more buying than simply just short squeezes.

The potential is a lot for this correction, but it will all depend on the strength of the bulls of course. That red zone in the chart, is a zone where a lot of the shorts on Finex have been opened back than. This means that if we go towards the 4400/4600 (Bitfinex), we could see most of these turn into buy orders as well. But lets just take it step by step now. The 3600 needs to break (USD' exchanges). If that happens we can look for other resistance levels, like the 3800/50 and the 4100 zone.

OI on Bitmex is still high, bears just feel so comfortable in the current market. I think they might have become over confident and don't understand markets move in waves. Why do they move in waves? Well, because of them :). Because they provide the buying power if they get squeezed out by some big buyers.

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Previous analysis:

Okay Bitcoin, is it going to be 4200 or 5200?

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Alts looking pretty good, like ETH already broke the bull flag but not yet the resistance. Like Bitcoin they have not yet broken the resistances. Only EOS in this picture

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Extra update, April fractal

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We broke the bull flag but we are still getting resistance from the 3600 zone. We can see volume was pretty good at the breakout. But just like yesterday, the bears just don't give up. OI keeps moving up as well. So a big move is probably closing in.

Bull need to keep that green support on the right, defend the breakout of the bull flag. If that breaks, there is a chance for a double top around 3600, which will be confirmed if the 3440/30 breaks.

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There is a very small H&S around 3520, if the neckline breaks we will test the breakout of the flag again around 3480. That level has to hold then

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Taking its time now, so it could probably make a small bullish wedge here. If that works out and we go to the previous high again at 3570/60 it will become very likely it will break and we rally up.

We do not want it to stall around 3540 and make a lower high again!!

The lowest green is the support to prevent a double top. The first green is for the bull flag

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Starting to like it could become an ascending triangle here. But it is very important that we dont make a lower high below the 3540/50. We need to touch the 3570. Otherwise this triangle could fail and we could see a break on the downside towards the low 35xx.

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This push up needs more volume btw, still not very convincing. Preferable like we saw earlier today with the move up from today's low

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These bears are just so stubborn :) Seems they can't accept the market wants to move up. We need to touch the 3570, if that happens we will probably make another squeeze up

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Buying volume is not enough, need more conviction than this. Bulls need to push down and keep the pressure up! Otherwise it can still fail. Really needs to touch the 3570 at least once

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Push up that is :) Wanted to say push their foot down

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Check the update of my Fractal analysis. I don't think we will see a false breakout like that, because the current level is much more important, but always good to know if we see a breakout fail

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Alts think, ready, set, GOOOO, their just waiting for Bitcoin to break the resistance

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Check my fractal update, getting a bit scary

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OI drops a bit and it increases each time again. I wonder if this is smart money or just retail money who can't except its time for a correction up. Who are pissed of for missing the entry at the lows and are trying to push it back down again so get a second chance :)

Anyway, looking pretty darn good now. Looks like another small bull flag, i dont want to see it break downwards. Otherwise momentum will be gone for now

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Go Goo Goooooooo :)

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Might be a Bart incoming if we drop below the 3660 now

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If it stays above the flag, could still work out. But the rallies are loosing momentum now, so would be no surprise now for a correction. If this bull flag breaks down again, will be more likely to happen then.

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Looks like a solid channel now, these flags we used to see in the first 6 months of 2018.

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I have 2 targets, not sure which one yet to use. But could be around 3850/3900, since we just don't stop moving up, could be we will reach it within a few hours. The other target is around 3750/80. I think the higher one is the one to look at. But greed has done nobody any good this year ;)

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ggoogogogogogogooooooo :)

Just don't forget, we are still in a bear market. I have not seen this kind of strength in a very long time. Usually with the smallest sign of weakness we would see a drop, scared bulls. Now it's the other way around it seems. I don't know yet where this will end. I had a target around 3850/3900. But it could got extended of course if the market is extremely bullish.

All i want to say is, don't be greedy and be wise about things, this is still just the first wave up and we will see another one the coming week or 2 after a correction/consolidation.
Damn, i turned bullish the past days, but did not expect this. I expected big short squeezes, but not normal/strong buying like this :)

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Looks like a correction is incoming if this 3780 breaks

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No bounce so far, looks like the H&S is real. Could be a wedge, but not likely. Unless that support line really holds.

Target H&S around 3650/3700

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Bulls pushing back a bit now. But still fits picture of retest. A break of the first red increases chances of bulls. Break of the second makes the H&S completely invalid

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This could be a scenario. The H&S seems to be off already, dropping to much. I am thinking about an even bigger ABC correction from this rally. But that wedge should work then. Just back home, taking some time off. Will try to make a new one tomorrow or later tonight. My general assumption is still after a correction, we will make another rally up. but rather not see the 3500ish break. 3600 would be very bullish

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When taking a second look. It has dropped quite the bit already. Making an ugly daily candle, which is not good. Really should not become an even bigger drop. Like max 3600 and a decent bounce back up. To 3700 at least.

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To give you an idea to what king of movement we could be in, we had a similar one a few weeks ago and the other one is from July.

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New Fractal update

Fractal Update Bitcoin, Is this the First wave or Second wave

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So fractal of those correctional moves played out, but the rally is much stronger than the previous ones though. Suggesting the market wants much more than this.
If they can hold the 4000ish, we could see another big rally towards 4300/400. If that happens, we could see a big inverse H&S form the coming days. With very high targets in the 5K's. But that is an difficult path to follow.

For now this move up is weakening, turning down making lower highs. So this could become a small H&S if the 4000ish breaks. The 3920ish is in important support as well to keep the momentum on the bull side. Below that level the correction could extend.

The view i had in mind before this rally, was going sideways for another day or so, before making the second rally.

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This last push up and down feels like a trap. Not good, volume down was high on Mex. I think if the 4010/4000 breaks we can drop another 100 points.

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Left we have an H&S right we still have the bull flag if that wick was the low. Better to go to sleep since i only slept 3 hours today :)

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with the last rally, alts barely did anything. Only ETH made a good jump. The rest looks bearish in my eyes, ready for a correction. Just bitcoin confusing things, like in July again

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H&S is clearly not in play. A lot of noise all of this. Looks like we can retest the 3900/3940 again. I am still figuring out what the next few waves can be

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New analysis:

Okay Bitcoin, is it going to be 4200 or 5200? Part 3

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