BitcoinLong
Bitcoin's lifetime summary
Updated
We are on bitcoin's fourth cycle. The first 3 cycles took an average of 47.67 months from market low to market high.
On a guess if you take the average cycle length, this cycle could last 48 months. This would take us to Dec 2025 for bitcoin's all time high for cycle 4.
Market highs were in:
1-Nov 2013
2- Dec 2017
3-Nov 2021
Market bottoms were in:
1-Jan 2015
2-Dec 2018
3-Nov 2022
There are 4 different colored boxes - green, red, orange and yellow.
Each box equates to one calendar year.
GREEN boxes - market top year
RED boxes -pull back year after market topped
ORANGE boxes - market undecided if bitcoin is in a bull or bear
YELLOW boxes - market gets more confident bitcoin is in a bull trend
Then we move into the GREEN box again, where bitcoin sentiment is very bullish.
And after an all time high is reached within the green box, the cycle repeats itself.
In years 2014, 2018 and 2022, the red boxes closed in the negative.
In years 2012, 2016 and 2020, the yellow boxes had over 100% gains. 2024 is also a yellow box,
will bitcoin end the year with a 100% plus gain?
There's a blue horizontal line in the boxes for cycles 2,3 and 4.
These blue lines are the resistance levels where bitcoin got rejected and made its last drop before breaking above resistance.(Gray circles)
Cycle 2 - Got rejected at $655 and fell 39%
Cycle 3 - Got rejected at $10,306 and fell 70%
Cycle 4 - I feel the resistance level is at $46,200.
Price may wick above this level between $48-$50,000. If you look at cycles 2 and 3, price wicked above the blue line before getting rejected, so there's a chance it could happen again in 2024.
Where will bitcoin retrace to after getting rejected at the 46K area?
It could go back down to the $25-$31,000 range. We were ranging and hovering around there most of 2023.
That's roughly a 45% drop.
On a guess if you take the average cycle length, this cycle could last 48 months. This would take us to Dec 2025 for bitcoin's all time high for cycle 4.
Market highs were in:
1-Nov 2013
2- Dec 2017
3-Nov 2021
Market bottoms were in:
1-Jan 2015
2-Dec 2018
3-Nov 2022
There are 4 different colored boxes - green, red, orange and yellow.
Each box equates to one calendar year.
GREEN boxes - market top year
RED boxes -pull back year after market topped
ORANGE boxes - market undecided if bitcoin is in a bull or bear
YELLOW boxes - market gets more confident bitcoin is in a bull trend
Then we move into the GREEN box again, where bitcoin sentiment is very bullish.
And after an all time high is reached within the green box, the cycle repeats itself.
In years 2014, 2018 and 2022, the red boxes closed in the negative.
In years 2012, 2016 and 2020, the yellow boxes had over 100% gains. 2024 is also a yellow box,
will bitcoin end the year with a 100% plus gain?
There's a blue horizontal line in the boxes for cycles 2,3 and 4.
These blue lines are the resistance levels where bitcoin got rejected and made its last drop before breaking above resistance.(Gray circles)
Cycle 2 - Got rejected at $655 and fell 39%
Cycle 3 - Got rejected at $10,306 and fell 70%
Cycle 4 - I feel the resistance level is at $46,200.
Price may wick above this level between $48-$50,000. If you look at cycles 2 and 3, price wicked above the blue line before getting rejected, so there's a chance it could happen again in 2024.
Where will bitcoin retrace to after getting rejected at the 46K area?
It could go back down to the $25-$31,000 range. We were ranging and hovering around there most of 2023.
That's roughly a 45% drop.
Note
Oops. The first paragraph should read, 47.67 months from one market high to the next. NOT 47.67 months from market low to market high.Trade active
BTC reached a 2024 high of $49,000 for the month of January.
In my original post I stated the resistance level would be at $46,200, and that "price may wick above this level between $48-$50,000."
BTC has now retraced 13% from its local high and is now consolidating between $41,800 - $43,200.
It's battling with the 50 day moving average. (green MA)
Currently the 50 ma is at $42,900.
If price fails to find support on the 50 day, it will then test the 100 day moving average. (yellow MA) Currently the 100 ma is at $38,500.
If BTC falls below the 100 day moving average, it will then test the 200 day ma as support. (red MA) Currently the 200 ma is at $33,300.
If price falls below the 200 ma, then the psychological level of $30,000 would be the next level of support.
I'm not saying BTC is going to these lower price levels right now. I'm just showing if Bitcoin CAN'T find support on these moving averages then the next level of support is the next lower moving average.
Just like what's happening in the charts right now. BTC is battling to find support on the 50 day moving average.
If price can find support on the 50 day then price should go up.
But if BTC falls and confirms below the 50 day ma, the 100 day will be the next test of support, and the 50 day will now be flipped to resistance.
Trade active
Just an update for BTC as of August 24th, 2024.
BTC is looking good. Price was able to break and confirm the blue resistance line of $46,200 in March of 2024.
The next hurdle for BTC is to close above March's high of $73,757.
If BTC can do this, it can hopefully end the year above 85k.
Closing out the year above 85K will make 2024 a 100%+ gain year, which BTC has done in all previous yellow boxes.
Trade closed: target reached
As of November 28, 2024, BTC is up 128% for the year.
So far all the yellow boxes recorded triple digit percent gains in BTC's history.
Obviously there's 33 days left till the end of the year.
Unless BTC has a huge correction, 2024 should end in a triple digit rise.
I can't wait for 2025 to see how high BTC and the rest of the crypto market will go.
Unfortunately the green boxes, which were the blow off top years, has had diminishing returns.
The percent gains have been getting smaller every fourth year.
Maybe this time will be different?
Don't get greedy and don't try to time the top! Take profits along the way.
You don't want to end up holding your bags and waiting another 4 years for the next blow off top.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.