THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!
I believe BTC will land somewhere between 150-300K this cycle. Realistically, ~200K is the most realistic target. There are several reasons why I believe this to be the case, and I will lay them out for you.
Fundamentally, we all know that a Trump presidency is bullish for crypto, so it does not make sense that the bull run would end here. Plus, the wave of delusional retail interest has not hit yet. There is no wild enthusiasm or euphoria.
Technical Analysis:
1. The massive cup and handle pattern.
We have been in a cup for about 28 months, and a handle for about 7 months. We finally broke out of the handle earlier this year, and the price target is ~120-125K.
2. The massive bull flag.
We printed a massive bull flag. Massive flag pole, and the flag was about 7 months long. That leads us to a price target right around that 125K price range, very similar to the cup and handle pattern.
3. Elliott Wave Theory.
If you compare the bull run of 2017 to this bull run, the Elliott Wave count is very similar. I can clearly see waves 1-4 for this run. An extended 5th wave is the most likely possibility (due to the strong fundamentals, and pretty much all indicators showing that we are nowhere near a cycle top), with us currently in subwave 2 of the larger extended 5th wave, very similar to the 5th wave extension in 2017. It is possible, that we are now entering the 1st subwave of the 3rd wave of the major cycle, but given that we were in a 7 month corrective pattern, it seems much more likely to me that a 7 month major wave 4 in a WXYZ pattern makes the most sense. There is the unlikely case that this bull run is over, if this 5th wave DOES NOT extend or 3rd wave, if my count is wrong. In that case, I see us running all the way down to 30K over the next year or two.
If we have a 5th wave extension, the 1.618 fib extension of Wave 1 & Wave 3 would take us to about 165-170K. This is a reasonable target, with a total market cap around 3.5T for BTC. Assuming a 40% BTC.D, that would be ~8.75T market cap for all of crypto. The 2.618 fib extension would take us to about 215K, which is what I suspect will occur. The 3.618 fib extension would take us to about 275K, which I believe is unlikely, but possible. Anything beyond this is a pipe dream, in my opinion. I suppose if we hit a similar extension as 2017, 400-500K is possible, but the market cap required for this to happen is enormous. BTC is still emerging, and I believe BTC needs more time to mature, before we reach those astronomical dream price targets. 500K-1M is a much more realistic target for the next cycle or even the cycle after that, but we shall see how this cycle plays out.
I believe BTC will land somewhere between 150-300K this cycle. Realistically, ~200K is the most realistic target. There are several reasons why I believe this to be the case, and I will lay them out for you.
Fundamentally, we all know that a Trump presidency is bullish for crypto, so it does not make sense that the bull run would end here. Plus, the wave of delusional retail interest has not hit yet. There is no wild enthusiasm or euphoria.
Technical Analysis:
1. The massive cup and handle pattern.
We have been in a cup for about 28 months, and a handle for about 7 months. We finally broke out of the handle earlier this year, and the price target is ~120-125K.
2. The massive bull flag.
We printed a massive bull flag. Massive flag pole, and the flag was about 7 months long. That leads us to a price target right around that 125K price range, very similar to the cup and handle pattern.
3. Elliott Wave Theory.
If you compare the bull run of 2017 to this bull run, the Elliott Wave count is very similar. I can clearly see waves 1-4 for this run. An extended 5th wave is the most likely possibility (due to the strong fundamentals, and pretty much all indicators showing that we are nowhere near a cycle top), with us currently in subwave 2 of the larger extended 5th wave, very similar to the 5th wave extension in 2017. It is possible, that we are now entering the 1st subwave of the 3rd wave of the major cycle, but given that we were in a 7 month corrective pattern, it seems much more likely to me that a 7 month major wave 4 in a WXYZ pattern makes the most sense. There is the unlikely case that this bull run is over, if this 5th wave DOES NOT extend or 3rd wave, if my count is wrong. In that case, I see us running all the way down to 30K over the next year or two.
If we have a 5th wave extension, the 1.618 fib extension of Wave 1 & Wave 3 would take us to about 165-170K. This is a reasonable target, with a total market cap around 3.5T for BTC. Assuming a 40% BTC.D, that would be ~8.75T market cap for all of crypto. The 2.618 fib extension would take us to about 215K, which is what I suspect will occur. The 3.618 fib extension would take us to about 275K, which I believe is unlikely, but possible. Anything beyond this is a pipe dream, in my opinion. I suppose if we hit a similar extension as 2017, 400-500K is possible, but the market cap required for this to happen is enormous. BTC is still emerging, and I believe BTC needs more time to mature, before we reach those astronomical dream price targets. 500K-1M is a much more realistic target for the next cycle or even the cycle after that, but we shall see how this cycle plays out.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.