Bitcoin Doing Three Strikes in a Row?
Updated
This is a follow up on my previous analysis, so nothing has really changed since.
After the first 2 bullish patterns (wedge and the flag as discussed in the previous analysis), looks like we have another bullish pattern here. Could be a flag but at the moment it looks more like a triangle. If it breaks down, it's target is around 8950, in the yellow circle. It would actually fit both pictures, of that rising trend line but also the blue line on the right, making that higher low the bulls want to see.
I just posted a few alt analysis, showing that things might be bearish short term, but with all i mentioned that Bitcoin is still very neutral at the moment. An hour ago we had another attempt to break up from this triangle but again it got pushed down. But again this rejection was small and low volume, so nothing exciting. This would suggest that bears are weak and that bulls are simply letting it happen. But when i look at the alts i just posted, i would say the market wants to make a correction down first before wanting to go up again (assuming bullish version).
As i mentioned in my public channel an hour ago, be very alert for a possible Bart move for Bitcoin. Meaning a wick up above the resistance and wick down again, like they do all the time. For the rest, i would say, bulls need to defend the 9080/60. Below it, think the triangle support has been broken. On the upside, quite obvious of course, 9160/90 needs to break. Don't forget though, i mentioned the 9250ish (red zone) as a key level for almost a week now, that has not changed. Even though one would think that if the current triangle breaks that level will obviously break as well since it's so close to each other. Well i would think the same :), but this is crypto AND it's weekend. Weekends are always VERY dangerous.
For the ones to whom it's not clear, i still favor a bearish outcome but hope it's clear i am very open minded still.
Good luck all :)
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
After the first 2 bullish patterns (wedge and the flag as discussed in the previous analysis), looks like we have another bullish pattern here. Could be a flag but at the moment it looks more like a triangle. If it breaks down, it's target is around 8950, in the yellow circle. It would actually fit both pictures, of that rising trend line but also the blue line on the right, making that higher low the bulls want to see.
I just posted a few alt analysis, showing that things might be bearish short term, but with all i mentioned that Bitcoin is still very neutral at the moment. An hour ago we had another attempt to break up from this triangle but again it got pushed down. But again this rejection was small and low volume, so nothing exciting. This would suggest that bears are weak and that bulls are simply letting it happen. But when i look at the alts i just posted, i would say the market wants to make a correction down first before wanting to go up again (assuming bullish version).
As i mentioned in my public channel an hour ago, be very alert for a possible Bart move for Bitcoin. Meaning a wick up above the resistance and wick down again, like they do all the time. For the rest, i would say, bulls need to defend the 9080/60. Below it, think the triangle support has been broken. On the upside, quite obvious of course, 9160/90 needs to break. Don't forget though, i mentioned the 9250ish (red zone) as a key level for almost a week now, that has not changed. Even though one would think that if the current triangle breaks that level will obviously break as well since it's so close to each other. Well i would think the same :), but this is crypto AND it's weekend. Weekends are always VERY dangerous.
For the ones to whom it's not clear, i still favor a bearish outcome but hope it's clear i am very open minded still.
Good luck all :)
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
Just showed this in my chat, answering a question, about if Bitcoin would break a certain level (in this case 7800), it would become to bearish and weak. To how i then would still see it recover if we would drop to low 7K. This chart of Gold is to illustrate what i had in mind months agoNote
This in combo with that chart i showed a few times already, which i made 8 months ago:Made this a week ago, general impression. But think if we break 7500ish withing like week or 2. Think big chance we might be headed for a big bear market again coming 6/12 months. Second option is the one on the right. Slower less violent drop coming month or so
Note
Bastards, even when feeling it upfront, i just HATE these Bart moves, just so disgusting. They played it very smart though this time, pushing ETH to new highs, giving the impression as if the rally is real this time. Well, it's weekend, always very dangerous!Anyway, as you can see on the left, so far it has found support from the trend line and reaching the triangle target, so in theory it could be a turning point again.
On the right, DAMN, i am patting myself on the back the last 5 min for drawing that line 8/10 days ago :).
Even if the support on the left breaks, but if we do NOT see a big drop, but seeing 8800ish hold as support, this could all just still be a higher low for the bulls. As mentioned at the end of this analysis, i still favor a bearish outcome for the coming week or 2, but i won't be ignoring these important support zones. A higher low in this area can be VERY big.
Short term, now we have a resistance at 9000/9040. That would be the first big level for the bulls to break. Anyone noticed btw, that Binance was the weak link past day? I have not watched it closely, but during this dump i could notice it was dumping even harder than Bitmex, but also the highs of this "flag" were lower at Binance
Note
So far no bounce, espcially ETH, so looks like the support might breakNote
As mentioned in last update, support broke but we did not see a big dump, so it’s not necessarily very bad now! Still following that blue line, which shows there is a chance for a higher low here. At the moment though, again no bounce, as if bulls have left the building and bears are comfortable to hold their shorts, so no buying from them either. On the left we can see hat support line broke, so the big question now is, will it just do a retest and continue to dump or will the blue line continue to predict the future :). Think for the bulls, for the coming day or 2 even, to see some bounces between 8800 (maybe 8750) and 9000, to form a support like the green line suggests.
The biggest danger for the bulls is the blue line on the left. Making a slow move up, in the shape of a bear flag up to a max of 8950/70, because that could mean it's just a basic retest and we will drop another 300 points towards 8600/50.
So the coming day or so, don't think anything exciting will happen, at least i hope it won't so we can take a break and come back tomorrow :)
Note
Damn, this market is still dead. See the blue line on the left i had drawn, that was assuming the market real crap, not even being able to get above 8950. Well, it's even MUCH worse. Think now it's safe to say we can say goodbye to the bullish version and my bearish view i had past month is/was prob the right choice. So low 7K prices is becoming more and more realistic now. Now as you know, i don't like to get ahead of things too much. For now think keep it simple, we had no bounce above 80 points since the dump started yesterday. So think as long as we do not see a 100 (or maybe 150) points move above the low, think its very dangerous to be bullish here. Supports are cracking, Bitcoin already at the lows of last week. So big risk of seeing a huge liquidation hunt from these nasty whales who have chosen the weekend to play their games because of the lower volumes.
Note
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