BTC/USD Intra-Day EST Morning Analysis - Moving Sideways
Hi everyone, this is my first analysis publication.
I am a beginner trader so I'd love to get your feedback on my ideas.
I'm using the teachings from a major Cyrpto Trading YouTube Channel (please message me for links, from what I understood I'm not allowed to post links to other social media or news sites).
*Candlestick Analysis:*
Since 8:15AM, trading is taking place on a somewhat narrow price range (candle bodies are small).
Massive FOMO happened at 7:45 AM, but market is calmer now (large candle body).
At 8:00 AM, there was a long wick on bottom of the red candle, which means that price was still bullish. We can see that confirmed at the 8:15 candle which closed with a price rise. However, there was also a long wick the top of the candle, which means people were already itching to sell as well. I think this was the first clue that things were going to start moving sideways. This continued in the 8:30 AM candle, confirming the sideways move.
But wait... we need to factor in the volume.
From 7:45 AM to 8:45 AM there was a high volume of trade. This means that what we just explained is confirmed (at least for this time period): when the price was going up, it really was heading up due to the high volume. And when the price started moving sideways, people started sitting on the fence.
Now let's look at what happened after 8:30 AM:
Still small candle bodies, which means trading is happening on a very narrow price range. For me, this says most people are on a "wait and see mode".
The only big wicks were at 8:30 and 10:00 AM. A slightly big one at 9:15 as well. This means that people were getting more and more itchy to sell.
Looking at the volume, it seems to confirm this idea. A low volume means people are sitting on the fence waiting to see what will happen.
*Support and Resistance Analysis:*
(done mostly with my experience of trading in 2017 (and learning from a major Crypto News Site) since I only have access to 2 indicators here).
From 8:15 to 10:30 (now) I see a symmetrical triangle (in blue).
Looking at the MACD (at 10:45), the bars are going down and the blue is also about to cross the red. Both mean that the price is about to go down. The bars are not below 0, so this means it will not crash down too much.
The RSI is still signalling overpriced, so this means the price will likely consolidate at a lower value than it is right now ($43,890).
*Final update (11 AM) and conclusion:*
Despite the large volume at 10:45, we can see that the candle stick/body was very short, which tells me that the market is still on await and see mode.
The triangle (pink) is still symmetrical, which says (?) things can go either way (that's probably why people are still on the fence).
However, the RSI and MACD are both saying it will go down.
Based on this trading window (9-11 AM EST) I will say that the tendency is to go down, or stay sideways for the next 2 hours.
I will check later this afternoon to see if my idea was right.
*Bias disclaimer:* I did sell a significant part of my holdings at ~$39, thinking that it would keep on testing the top for a while, so I am doing this to try and see when to buy. I am trying to be as unbiased as I can, but there might be part of me that is seeing what I want to see.
*Legal Notice:* Nothing in this publication is investment or financial advice, please trade at your own risk and comfort level.
#technicalanalysis #beginner #crypto #bitcoin
I am a beginner trader so I'd love to get your feedback on my ideas.
I'm using the teachings from a major Cyrpto Trading YouTube Channel (please message me for links, from what I understood I'm not allowed to post links to other social media or news sites).
*Candlestick Analysis:*
Since 8:15AM, trading is taking place on a somewhat narrow price range (candle bodies are small).
Massive FOMO happened at 7:45 AM, but market is calmer now (large candle body).
At 8:00 AM, there was a long wick on bottom of the red candle, which means that price was still bullish. We can see that confirmed at the 8:15 candle which closed with a price rise. However, there was also a long wick the top of the candle, which means people were already itching to sell as well. I think this was the first clue that things were going to start moving sideways. This continued in the 8:30 AM candle, confirming the sideways move.
But wait... we need to factor in the volume.
From 7:45 AM to 8:45 AM there was a high volume of trade. This means that what we just explained is confirmed (at least for this time period): when the price was going up, it really was heading up due to the high volume. And when the price started moving sideways, people started sitting on the fence.
Now let's look at what happened after 8:30 AM:
Still small candle bodies, which means trading is happening on a very narrow price range. For me, this says most people are on a "wait and see mode".
The only big wicks were at 8:30 and 10:00 AM. A slightly big one at 9:15 as well. This means that people were getting more and more itchy to sell.
Looking at the volume, it seems to confirm this idea. A low volume means people are sitting on the fence waiting to see what will happen.
*Support and Resistance Analysis:*
(done mostly with my experience of trading in 2017 (and learning from a major Crypto News Site) since I only have access to 2 indicators here).
From 8:15 to 10:30 (now) I see a symmetrical triangle (in blue).
Looking at the MACD (at 10:45), the bars are going down and the blue is also about to cross the red. Both mean that the price is about to go down. The bars are not below 0, so this means it will not crash down too much.
The RSI is still signalling overpriced, so this means the price will likely consolidate at a lower value than it is right now ($43,890).
*Final update (11 AM) and conclusion:*
Despite the large volume at 10:45, we can see that the candle stick/body was very short, which tells me that the market is still on await and see mode.
The triangle (pink) is still symmetrical, which says (?) things can go either way (that's probably why people are still on the fence).
However, the RSI and MACD are both saying it will go down.
Based on this trading window (9-11 AM EST) I will say that the tendency is to go down, or stay sideways for the next 2 hours.
I will check later this afternoon to see if my idea was right.
*Bias disclaimer:* I did sell a significant part of my holdings at ~$39, thinking that it would keep on testing the top for a while, so I am doing this to try and see when to buy. I am trying to be as unbiased as I can, but there might be part of me that is seeing what I want to see.
*Legal Notice:* Nothing in this publication is investment or financial advice, please trade at your own risk and comfort level.
#technicalanalysis #beginner #crypto #bitcoin
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